阿拉木圖能力壓北京贏得冬奧會主辦權嗎

ALMATY, Kazakhstan — The last time this happened — that is, the last time a former Soviet republic from Central Asia bid to host an Olympics — the entire thing was a joke. A lark. A laugh.

哈薩克斯坦阿拉木圖——這樣的事情上一次發生時——也就是上一次一個中亞的前蘇聯加盟共和國申辦奧運會時——整件事就是個笑話、是場鬧劇，人們一笑了之。

This was in 1992, when Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, bid for the 2000 Summer Games. At the time, Tashkent’s committee leaders readily admitted that, should they win, they would need to build 24 venues including a regulation-size swimming pool as well as a few other nagging items, like hotels, an airport and a hospital. Just one year after the fall of the Soviet Union, the people of Tashkent were fully aware that they were dreaming.

那是1992年，烏茲別克斯坦首都塔什干申請主辦2000年夏季奧運會。當時，塔什干奧申委的主管們很快承認，一旦申請成功，他們需要建設24處場地，包括一個符合規定大小的游泳池和其他一些麻煩的設施，如幾家酒店、一座機場和一家醫院。當時距離蘇聯解體不過一年，塔什干人民完全明白，這是在做夢。

More than two decades later, however, the executives in charge of bringing the 2022 Winter Olympics here, to Kazakhstan’s former capital and current commercial hub, are far more serious.

但是，20多年後的今天，哈薩克斯坦的主管們卻要嚴肅得多，他們將爲阿拉木圖——以前的首都、現在的商業中心——爭取2022年冬季奧運會的主辦權。

They do not care that many fans (and perhaps even some International Olympic Committee members) may struggle to find their country — the ninth largest in the world — on a map. They do not care that many experts believe the oft-cited notion of using an Olympics as a means of transforming a country with any number of problems — including a troubling human rights record — is pure myth. And they certainly do not care that some observers have labeled this the worst bidding race in Olympic history after a slew of cities pulled out, leaving behind a particularly bizarre pair.

他們不在乎很多奧運迷，甚至包括一些國際奧委會(International Olympic Committee)委員，可能要費點力氣才能在地圖上找到這個面積在全球排第九的國家。經常有人談到，一個問題叢生的國家（包括令人擔憂的人權記錄）可以通過辦奧運來改變自己，儘管很多專家認爲這樣的想法一點也不現實（但這一點他們也不在乎）。一些觀察家將這屆申辦活動稱爲奧運史上最糟糕的角逐，因爲在大量城市退出後，只剩下了兩座候選城市的奇怪組合（這一點他們同樣不在乎）。

The candidates? Almaty, a city you may or may not have heard of (it is pronounced Al-MAH-tee), and Beijing, a city you surely have heard of but perhaps not for its winter sports history.

哪兩個城市？一個你可能聽說過，也可能沒聽說過的城市阿拉木圖，以及一個你肯定聽說過，但或許不是因爲冬季運動史而熟悉的城市北京。

“None of this concerns us,” Akhmetzhan Yessimov, the mayor of Almaty, said through an interpreter in a recent interview at his office. “We want to win.”

“這些對我們沒什麼影響，”阿拉木圖市長阿赫梅特江·葉西莫夫(Akhmetzhan Yessimov)最近在辦公室通過翻譯接受採訪時表示。“我們要贏得這次主辦權。”

He shrugged. “Once you say you are a mushroom, you might as well get into the soup.”

他聳了聳肩。“既然說自己是個蘑菇，不妨就做個湯，看看到底怎麼樣。”

And yet, still: This soup is tricky. Yes, Almaty has put together a bid that is comprehensive and original, and it has become a legitimate contender as one bidder after another has dropped out citing either costs or a lack of public support. But winning July’s I.O.C. vote, which will be held in Kuala Lumpur, is another matter. And there is no question that Almaty is the underdog.

但是，這鍋湯可沒那麼好燉。沒錯，阿拉木圖已經拿出比較完整而有新意的申辦計劃，而且在一個接一個申辦城市因爲缺少資金或缺少公衆支持的理由退出之後，阿拉木圖已經成爲一個說得過去的爭奪者。但是能不能在7月份在吉隆坡舉行的國際奧委會最終投票中獲勝卻是另一回事。而且，阿拉木圖顯然是不被看好的一方。

Much of that has to do with its competition. Beijing, despite political and environmental concerns, put on a remarkable Olympics in 2008. But those were the Summer Games, Almaty advocates are quick to point out, and so Beijing would be essentially fabricating a Winter Games setup with buckets of cash, a far-flung layout and a culture for winter sports that might generously be described as “developing.”

這主要和它的競爭對手有關。儘管在政治和環境上存在問題，但北京在2008年舉辦了一場出色的奧運會。但阿拉木圖的支持者急切地指出，那是夏季奧運會。所以北京要做的實際上是砸很多錢，生造出冬季奧運會的場景——在偏遠的地點建造場地，培育冬季運動的文化。而這種文化，用慷慨的措辭也只能形容爲“正在發展”。

Unfortunately for Almaty, I.O.C. rules resulting from a scandal related to the awarding of the 2002 Salt Lake City Games prohibit any of the 101 members who will vote on the bid from visiting either bid city beforehand. In Beijing’s case, that is probably a good thing; most people affiliated with the Olympic movement still have positive feelings from 2008.

對阿拉木圖來說，不幸的是，自2001年鹽湖城冬奧會出現行賄醜聞之後，國際奧委會禁止參與投票的101位成員事前訪問任一座申辦城市。對北京而言，這可能是好事；大部分與奧運會緊密相關的人士，都因2008年奧運會對北京保持着正面印象。

For Almaty, though, the rules clearly hurt. The country gained its independence in 1991 and has gone through a whirlwind development process covering everything from its oil-based economy to its nascent government structure to its presence in global sport.

但這些規則對阿拉木圖明顯不利。自1991年取得獨立以來，它經歷了一個各方面都快速發展的過程，不管是以石油爲基礎的經濟，還是年輕的政府組織結構，還是目前對全球體育賽事的參與。

As Andrey Kryukov, the vice chairman of Almaty’s bid, said: “There are a lot of former Soviet states — a lot of ‘-stans.’ But we are the most advanced. We are the strongest. We want to be able to show that to the voters, and we are not allowed.”

就像阿拉木圖奧申委副主席安德烈·克留科夫(Andrey Kryukov)所說，“有很多前蘇聯加盟共和國，它們也叫‘某某斯坦’，但我們是其中最先進、最強大的。我們想把這些展示給決定申辦權的投票人，但這樣做是不允許的。”

The strength of Almaty’s bid, its organizers say, lies in its compressed nature and its authenticity. (The bid’s slogan, in a not-so-veiled jab at Beijing, is “Keeping It Real.”) While some might reflexively link Almaty, as a former Soviet city, to Sochi, there are almost no similarities in their bids. The Sochi Games cost upward of $50 billion, and when construction was finished (or, in some cases, not finished), those Olympics had the vague feel of being held on a Hollywood movie set.

阿拉木圖申奧活動的組織者們表示，它的優勢在於城市比較緊湊，主辦方真實可靠。（它的申奧口號是“保持真實”，其中帶有對北京並不那麼含蓄的挑釁。）儘管有些人可能會條件反射地把前蘇聯城市阿拉木圖和曾經舉辦過冬季奧運會的索契聯繫起來，但二者的申奧行動幾乎沒有任何相似之處。索契冬奧會資金投入超過500億美金，建築工程完成（確切講有些地方還未完成）之時，這場奧運會已經讓人隱隱約約地感覺到，彷彿是在好萊塢的電影佈景裏舉行的。

In Almaty, every venue is within a radius of about 18 miles. One hockey arena has been built and another will be completed — with or without the Olympics — for the University Games, which are set for 2017. The speedskating events would be held at Medeu, an outdoor oval perched on the shelf of a mountain more than a mile above sea level, and the ski jump venue will be visible from office windows in the city’s metropolitan center.

在阿拉木圖，每個場地都相距不超過18英里（約合29公里）。一座冰球賽場已經建成，另一座在建，它是爲2017年在此舉行的世界大學生冬季運動會做準備，不管是否舉辦奧運會都會建成。速度滑冰賽將在梅傑烏(Medeu)舉行，比賽場地是位於海拔一英里的山腰處的橢圓形露天賽場。而跳臺滑雪比賽場地，在市中心的辦公樓裏，透過窗口就可以看到。

When inspectors from the I.O.C. visited Almaty a few months ago — in a particularly convoluted process, these officials do not vote on the bids but instead report to executives who do — Mr. Kryukov claimed that the feedback was virtually all positive.

幾個月前，國際奧委會視察人員到訪阿拉木圖，克留科夫表示，他們給出的基本都是正面反饋。這些視察官員不參與投票，但他們會向參與投票的高層人員彙報，這是一個非常非常複雜的過程。

Last week, when Almaty and Beijing gave presentations to about 85 of the I.O.C. members, Almaty’s, which featured numerous photographs of deep snow — another apparent dig at Beijing’s bid — seemed well received.

上週，阿拉木圖和北京向約佔總人數85%的國際奧委會成員做了申奧陳述。阿拉木圖的報告用到很多大雪覆蓋的圖片——明顯對北京又是一擊——似乎得到了不錯的反應。

“I think they attracted the attention of people who may not have been convinced before,” the Canadian I.O.C. member Dick Pound told reporters afterward. “It looks to me like they figured out all of the weaknesses of the competitors and they just nailed the differences — snow, water, air, experience.”

“我覺得他們成功吸引了之前不太信服的那部分人，”來自加拿大的奧委會委員迪克·龐德(Dick Pound)事後對記者們講到。“在我看來，他們很清楚對手的弱點，完全踩到了點上——雪、水、空氣、體驗。”

Much of the optimism from Almaty’s organizers stems from the positive response to how it has hewed to the ideals laid out by Thomas Bach, the president of the I.O.C., whose Olympic Agenda 2020 initiative seeks to reform a bidding process that had become particularly onerous and unappealing to potential Olympic hosts.

阿拉木圖嚴格遵守國際奧委會主席托馬斯·巴赫(Thomas Bach)提出的理想做法，外界對此給予了積極的反饋，阿拉木圖組織方的樂觀，很大程度上來自於此。原有的申奧程序對潛在的舉辦國而言，已經變得極爲繁瑣、缺乏吸引力，巴赫主席領導制定的《奧林匹克2020議程》(Olympic Agenda 2020)致力於改革這一程序。

High costs and waning public support were a significant part of the reason other potential bidders for the 2022 Games — including Munich, Stockholm, a combined bid from the Tyrol region in Austria and Italy, and, very late in the process, Oslo — fell over one another while backing out. Concerns about useless infrastructure, overcrowded streets and white-elephant venues have made Winter Olympics bidding a hard sell to voters.

高昂的費用和日益減少的公衆支持是2022年冬奧會其他潛在申請者——包括慕尼黑、斯德哥爾摩、奧地利和意大利交界處的蒂羅爾地區（兩國聯合申請），以及在最後階段加入的奧斯陸——爭先恐後退出的一個重要因素。因爲擔心會帶來無用的基礎建設、街道擁擠問題，以及成本高昂卻用處不大的比賽場地，很難說服選民支持冬奧會。

“The trend that ought to be worrying lovers of sport,” said Minky Worden, director of global initiatives at Human Rights Watch, “is that it is increasingly autocrats who aren’t going to face any domestic criticism that are the only ones who want to pay for these mega sporting events.”

“有一種趨勢可能正在讓體育愛好者感到擔憂，”人權觀察(Human Rights Watch)全球倡導總監胡丹(Minky Worden)說。“願意爲這類宏大賽事買單的人，只有那些不會在國內受到任何批評的獨裁者。這種現象越來越明顯。”

That is one of the larger criticisms of Almaty. Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been leading the country since 1989, and while public elections are now held — Mr. Nazarbayev won another term in April by gaining roughly 98 percent of the votes — the idea that Kazakhstan is anything close to a full, free democracy is a long way off, experts said.

那是對阿拉木圖的諸多批評中比較嚴重的一個。哈薩克斯坦總統努爾蘇丹·納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)自1989年開始領導這個國家，儘管實行公開選舉——納扎爾巴耶夫今年4月以將近98%的多票數贏得新一任任期——但專家們表示，哈薩克斯坦要實現真正自由的民主政治，還有很長的路要走。

Mihra Rittmann, who covers Kazakhstan for Human Rights Watch, said her organization had seen a sharp decline in basic freedoms there since 2011, when a prolonged strike by oil workers ended in government-sanctioned violence and reports of torture.

人權觀察駐哈薩克斯坦負責人米赫拉·裏特曼(Mihra Rittmann)表示，2011年以來，她的組織觀察到，這裏的基本自由空間急劇下降。當時一場石油工人發起的持久罷工，遭遇政府支持的武力鎮壓，之後還傳出了使用酷刑拷問的報道。

Since then, Ms. Rittmann said, there have been tighter restrictions on religion and freedom of assembly, as well as an even greater obscuring of governmental accountability.

裏特曼表示，自此之後，這裏對於宗教和自由集會活動的限制更加嚴格，對政府的問責卻更加模糊。

“In some ways, it is what we call a quiet repression in Kazakhstan, but the crackdown that took place after the 2011 episode was a very, very low point,” Ms. Rittmann said. “People were killed.”

“在某種程度上，現在哈薩克斯坦有一種我們稱爲‘安靜的壓制’的狀態，不過2011年那起事件後實施的鎮壓是最惡劣的時間點，很多人因此被殺害，”裏特曼說。

Other groups are concerned with the ecological situation in Almaty. Beijing’s choking pollution is well documented, but Almaty’s is not much better, according to Abay Yerekenov, an environmental activist in the city, who called the air quality “appalling.”

還有一些組織擔心阿拉木圖的生態狀況。北京令人窒息的環境污染已經有詳盡報道，但阿拉木圖的狀況也沒有好太多。該市一位環境倡導人士阿巴伊·耶列科諾夫(Abay Yerekenov)表示，這裏的空氣質量“駭人聽聞”。

There is also significant concern about a law, passed by the country’s senate this year, that is believed to have language similar to Russia’s “sexual propaganda” statute, according to Amnesty International. The law, which has not been made available in its entirety for review by outside organizations, is said to be under consideration by Mr. Nazarbayev.

此外，還有一項法律引發的嚴重擔憂。國際特赦組織(Amnesty International)稱，該國參議院今年通過的一項立法據信含有與俄羅斯的“性取向宣傳”法令類似的言辭。據稱，納扎爾巴耶夫正在考慮採納這項法律。外部組織還無法查看該法的完整版。

In its call for opposition to the law, Amnesty International said that “the potent combination of legal discrimination and street homophobia seen over the past few years in Kazakhstan’s northern neighbor is now brewing as well in the Central Asian giant.”

國際特赦組織在號召反對該法時表示，“過去幾年裏，哈薩克斯坦的北方鄰國出現了法律歧視和街頭恐同的強力結合。眼下在中亞大國哈薩克斯坦，這種組合也在醞釀之中。”

Ms. Worden, of Human Rights Watch, said her organization generally stayed away from ranking or directly comparing the situations in different countries, but she sighed when asked about the reality of the 2022 vote. Come July, someone will win: either Almaty, whose human rights record is lesser known but still poor; or Beijing, which is enduring China’s “worst crackdown in the post-1989 period across the board,” Ms. Worden said.

人權觀察組織的胡丹表示，她所在的機構通常不會對不同國家的情況進行排名或直接比較。不過，在被問及2022年冬奧會主辦權投票的現實時，她嘆了口氣。胡丹說，到了7月，總有一方會勝出：要麼是人權記錄不大爲人所知但還是頗爲糟糕的阿拉木圖，要麼是正在經歷中國“1989年之後最爲嚴重的全面打壓”的北京。

“This isn’t a situation where it’s one country that’s O.K. against another that’s not,” she said. “This is something that ought to be keeping the I.O.C. up at night.”

“這次的情況並不是一個國家還可以，另一個不行，”她說。“這種局面應該讓國際奧委會夜不能寐。”