北京申辦2022年冬奧會成功機會有多大

When news arrived in November that Beijing was bidding for the 2022 Winter Olympics, many observers in the Chinese capital briefly choked on their tea -- or was that the smog?

去年11月傳出北京申辦2022年冬季奧運會的消息時，在這座中國首都城市的許多觀察人士都被口中的茶嗆了一下（或者是因爲霧霾？）。

A few years removed from hosting the Summer Olympics, with virtually no winter sports tradition to speak of and bad air that gets worse when the temperatures drop, China's capital seemed as likely a choice to host the Winter Games as Dubai or Bankok.

北京在幾年前剛剛舉辦過夏季奧運會，而且實際上沒什麼說得上來的冬季體育運動傳統，再加上氣溫下降時空氣質量會更加糟糕，被選作冬運會舉辦地的可能性看起來就和迪拜或曼谷差不多。

Eight months later, the International Olympic Committee has named Beijing, which has proposed hosting the games in conjunction with the nearby city of Zhangjiakou, as one of the three finalists for the bid, along with Oslo in Norway and Kazakhstan's Almaty.

八個月之後，國際奧林匹克委員會(International Olympic Committee, 簡稱：國際奧委會)宣佈，北京與挪威的奧斯陸及哈薩克斯坦的阿拉木圖共同入圍最後一輪候選名單。北京提出的方案是與附近城市張家口一起舉辦冬奧會。

What are Beijing's chances of actually winning the bid? Better than you might think.

北京真的勝出的可能性有多大？比你可能以爲的要大。

The 2022 Winter Olympics has become known as the Olympics no one wants to host after a long list of candidates dropped their bids. Stockholm, Munich, two cities in Switzerland, Denver, Krakow and Lviv in Ukraine all pursued the idea of hosting the event to varying degrees but ultimately decided to withdraw themselves from consideration over the past few months -- leaving only the three finalists.

在一長串候選城市都放棄之後，2022年冬奧會已經成了有名的“誰都不想承辦”的一屆奧運會。瑞典的斯德哥爾摩、德國慕尼黑、瑞士兩個城市、美國丹佛、波蘭克拉科夫和烏克蘭利沃夫都不同程度地尋求過主辦這屆冬奧會，但經過過去幾個月的思考，它們最終都決定退出――只剩下最後一輪名單上的三個城市。

With the exception of Lviv, which cancelled its bid last week because of continuing political strife in Ukraine, most of the other drop-outs appear to have been frightened away by the specter of this year's Winter Games in Sochi, which emptied Russia's coffers to the tune of $51 billion and left little of value behind.

除了利沃夫以外，多數中途退出者似乎都被今年索契冬奧會給嚇住了。這屆冬奧會花掉了俄羅斯510億美元之多，而並沒有帶來什麼價值。利沃夫上週因烏克蘭持續不斷的政治衝突而放棄競標。

Here's China Real Time's rundown of the arguments in favor of and against the remaining candidates:

以下是《中國實時報》專欄列出的入圍候選城市的優勢和劣勢：

Almaty

阿拉木圖

Pros: Has never hosted an Olympics before, has mountains nearby and claims to have already built many of the necessary facilities. Cons: The city of 1.5 million isn't all that far from Sochi, and 'Borat' effect notwithstanding, Kazakhstan doesn't top many lists of sexy tourist destinations. The city also may not being willing to lay out the piles of cash required to put on a modern Olympics. (If the city is picked as host, the budget will be 'many, many times' less than Sochi, a Kazahk Olympic Committee board member told Reuters in February.)

優勢：之前從未舉辦過奧運會，附近有山，對外宣稱已修建了很多必要設施。劣勢：這個人口150萬的城市距離索契不算太遠，雖說有波拉特效應的幫助，但哈薩克斯坦在諸多旅遊勝地名單上都榜上無名。這個城市可能也不會爲舉辦一場現代化的奧運會而一擲千金。（一名哈薩克奧委會委員曾在2月份對路透社(Reuters)表示，如果該市被選爲舉辦方，其預算會比索契少很多很多倍。）

Oslo

奧斯陸

Pros: Is in Europe (which hasn't hosted a Winter Games since Turin in 2006), has the right geography and plenty of oil money, would field a very competitive home team. Cons: Norway has hosted a Winter Olymipics in the relatively recent past (Lillehammer 1994). More importantly, it's not clear the city actually wants to host the games. Various polls put public support for the bid as low as 38%. 'I think the whole thing is crazy,' one 67-year-old Oslo resident told the Wall Street Journal in September. 'The whole country has to pay for a little pleasure.'

優勢：地處歐洲（歐洲自2006年都靈冬奧會以來再也沒舉辦過冬奧會），地理位置優越，擁有大量石油收入，有極具競爭力的東道主運動隊。劣勢：挪威在相對較近期的過去曾舉辦過冬季奧運會（1994年的利勒哈默冬奧會）。更重要的是，這個城市是否真正想舉辦冬奧會尚未可知。很多項調查顯示，公衆對申辦冬奧會的支持率只有38%。一名67歲的奧斯陸居民曾在去年9月份對《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)說，他認爲申辦冬奧會簡直就是發瘋，整個國家要爲這點快樂花很多錢。

Beijing/Zhangjiakou

北京/張家口

Pros: Lots of money. Cons: As documented by Bloomberg's Adam Minter, the chief argument against Beijing is the city's notoriously chewable air. Zhangjiakou, the city in Hebei where the alpine events would be held, boasts cleaner air, but it still hardly qualifies as pristine and is at its worst in the winter. Besides which, the 'mountains' of Hebei are pimple-sized when compared with those in previous host locations like Nagano and Salt Lake City. There's also the fact that the 2018 Winter Games are scheduled to be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea, which is only 670 miles from Beijing.

優勢：有很多錢。劣勢：正如彭博(Bloomberg)的明特(Adam Minter)所言，北京的最大劣勢在於它嚴重的空氣污染。將舉辦高山滑雪運動的張家口是河北省城市，空氣質量較好，但也談不上有多新鮮，冬季也是該市氣候最差的季節。除此之外，與之前冬奧會舉辦地長野縣、鹽湖城相比，河北省的山都有點太小了。另外還有一點，2018年冬季奧運會計劃在韓國平昌郡舉辦，距離北京只有670英里（合1078公里）。

All that said, it's hard to underestimate the power of a bulging purse -- and if the 2008 Summer Games proved anything, it's that Beijing is willing to spend what it takes to put on an impressive Olympics. Beijing could also dangle the carrot of Zhang Yimou, the famous film director whose authoritarian choreography for the 2008 Olympics opening ceremonies was impressive enough to nab a Peabody award. (Just imagine what he could do with thousands of People's Liberation Army soldiers on ice skates.)

儘管如此，目前難以估計中國不斷增強的財政實力的真實情況。不過如果將2008年夏季奧運會視爲例證的話，可以得出的結論就是爲了舉辦一屆令人印象深刻的奧運會，北京願意盡其所能支出資金。北京還可以利用張藝謀來幫助申奧。這位中國著名導演一手執導的2008年奧運會開幕式令人印象深刻，足以獲得皮博迪獎(Peabody award)。（設想一下張藝謀執導數千名解放軍腳踩滑冰鞋的樣子。）

An announcement on the Beijing government's English news website claimed a 90% support rate for the city's latest Olympic bid. It's not clear how that figure was determined, but if residents are in favor of the idea, it might have to do with secondary benefits promised. The capital's finance bureau has said it plans to invest close to $50 billion yuan ($8 billion) in efforts to reduce fine particulate matter in the air ahead of the games. If that pledge holds, residents of the city could end up winning no matter how the event turns out.

北京政府英文新聞網站上的一份公告稱，北京此次申辦冬奧會獲得了90%的支持率。目前還不清楚這個數據如何而來，但是如果北京人支持申奧，那可能是因爲他們考慮到了奧運會可以帶來的其他有利影響。北京市財政局此前已經表示，在冬奧會之前，計劃投資近人民幣500億元（合80億美元）來減少空氣中的顆粒物。如果政府兌現承諾，那麼無論冬奧會辦的成不成功，北京人都是贏家。