特朗普繼承了尼克松的陰暗面大綱
Now we can be sure.
現在我們可以確定了。
Donald Trump will never tack to the middle.
唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)永遠不會向中間立場靠攏。
Let Trump be Trump, is his team’s new motto, which is baffling since he has not tried anything else.
讓特朗普做他自己，是其團隊新的座右銘。這句話讓人摸不着頭腦，因爲他從未嘗試其它策略。
By recruiting Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News, the far right conservative website, to run his campaign, Mr Trump has banished whatever doubts still lingered: his White House bid is chiefly about inciting white resentment.
通過聘請極右翼保守派網站Breitbart News的斯蒂芬•班農(Stephen Bannon)，特朗普打消了一切尚存的疑慮：他的競選策略主要是煽動白人的怨恨。
For the next 10 weeks, he will trigger every dark fear he can find.
在接下來的競選階段，他將喚醒他找得到的所有黑暗恐懼。
It has been more than a generation since Richard Nixon ended America’s long national nightmare by resigning the presidency. Mr Trump’s version still has a way to go.
自理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)以辭去總統之位來終結美國漫長的國家噩夢以來，已經過去了40多年。特朗普版的噩夢還將延續很久。
There is little reason to think it would come to an end if he lost.
如果他競選失敗了，我們也沒什麼理由認爲這一切會隨之結束。
The former reality television star’s debt to Nixon is as much about psychology as ideology.
這位前真人秀明星與尼克松相像的地方既有意識形態層面的，也有心理學層面的。
America’s 37th president collected resentments like philatelists do stamps.
身爲美國第37屆總統的尼克松收集怨恨就像集郵家收集郵票。
Nixon never met a grudge he did not want to nurse.
尼克松從未遇到過他不想耿耿於懷的憤怒。
Roger Ailes, the disgraced founder of Fox News, made his name by training Nixon to smile more and treat TV as his friend in his winning 1968 campaign.
福克斯新聞(Fox News)不光彩的創始人羅傑•艾爾斯(Roger Ailes)當年成名，就是因爲他在1968年總統競選中訓練尼克松增加微笑、把電視當作自己的朋友，最後贏得大選。
It is no coincidence that Mr Ailes is now coaching Mr Trump for his televised debates with Hillary Clinton.
並非巧合的是，艾爾斯現在指導特朗普與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)進行電視辯論
He has his work cut out.
他的任務十分艱鉅。
Mr Trump may have borrowed Nixon’s 1968 playbook by running a fear-based campaign that appeals to law and order
特朗普或許會借鑑尼克松1968年的劇本，搞一場以恐懼爲本的競選，呼籲法律和秩序。
But today’s silent majority is way less white than it was back then.
但是如今沉默的多數派中的白人比例遠不及當初。
As an electoral strategy, Mr Trump’s campaign is flirting with suicide.
以此作爲競選策略，特朗普無異於玩火。
Yet it works as a media strategy.
不過，作爲媒體策略，該策略行得通。
Nixon believed people respond to fear rather than love.
尼克松認爲，能喚起人們反應的是恐懼，而不是愛。
They don’t teach that in Sunday school — but it’s true, he said.
他們不會在主日學校教這些——但這是事實，他表示。
He also harboured a deep hatred of the elites — the professors, Ivy Leaguers and experts whom Spiro Agnew, his vice-president, called the effete core of impudent snobs.
他還對精英羣體——被他的副總統斯皮羅•阿格紐(Spiro Agnew)稱爲無恥勢利小人的軟弱核心的教授、常青藤畢業生和專家——懷有深深的仇恨。
Mr Trump is surrounded by people with the same Nixonian grievances.
特朗普的周圍也盡是懷有尼克松式不滿的人。
His first mentor, Roy Cohn, the legendary New York lawyer, advised people that you should know the judge not the law.
他的第一個導師、具有傳奇色彩的紐約律師羅伊•科恩(Roy Cohn)曾發表高見稱，與其瞭解法律，你還不如瞭解法官。
Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s oldest friend with whom he speaks daily, believes hate is a stronger motivator than love.
特朗普每天都會交談的的老朋友羅傑•斯通(Roger Stone)認爲，仇恨是比愛更強烈的動機。
Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager, who resigned on Friday, made his fortune as an adviser to paranoid strongmen around the world.
上月辭職的特朗普前競選經理保羅•馬納福特(Paul Manafort)憑藉爲世界各地的偏執狂強人擔任顧問而起家。
Mr Bannon’s website is dominated by conspiracy theories.
班農的網站充斥着各種陰謀論。
Now he has a golden chance to turn his paranoia into a presidential campaign.
如今他得到了一個黃金機會，可以把他的偏執狂轉化爲總統競選策略。
What will it look like?
那會是什麼樣的？
Nixon’s ghost was already visible in the Trump campaign’s content.
尼克松的魅影已經在特朗普的競選內容中浮現。
Unlike Ronald Reagan, Nixon was happy with big government — he added more federal agencies than any president since.
與羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)不同，尼克松喜歡大政府——他增設的聯邦機構超過之後任何一屆總統。
Mr Trump’s success with white middle-class voters derives partly from his pledge to leave federal entitlements, such as social security, in place.
特朗普成功贏得白人中產階級選民的支持，部分源自於他承諾保證聯邦福利，比如社會保障制度。
Unlike Reagan, Nixon pursued a foreign policy based more on national interest than American values.
與里根不同，尼克松奉行的外交政策更多地是基於國家利益，而非美國價值觀。
Such pragmatism en-abled him to override the anti-communist hawks and do the historic deal with Mao’s China.
這樣的務實主義使他得以頂住反對共產黨的鷹派，與毛澤東主政的中國達成歷史性協議。
Mr Trump’s admiration for autocrats, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, shows a similar disregard for US sensibilities.
特朗普對威權領導人——比如俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)、甚至朝鮮的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)——的敬佩，展現了類似的對美國情懷的漠視。
But it was Nixon’s cultural message, the stoking of white middle-class anger, that really feeds Mr Trump.
但是，真正滋養特朗普的是尼克松的文化信息——點燃白人中產階級的憤怒。
It will increasingly dominate what remains of his campaign.
這將日益主導特朗普餘下的競選之路。
Is there any way it could succeed? This is where Mr Trump and Nixon part company.
該策略可能成功嗎？這便是特朗普和尼克松有所不同的地方。
The latter was the political genius of his age.
後者是他那個時代的政治天才。
Nixon certainly cashed in on white resentment against the civil rights reforms of the 1960s.
尼克松當然利用了白人對上世紀60年代民權改革的怨恨。
But even at the peak of his southern strategy, he was careful never to express clear racist views.
但即便是在他南方戰略的巔峯時期，他也小心翼翼地從不表達赤裸裸的種族主義觀點。
Mr Trump can barely finish a sentence without offending some ethnic group
而特朗普幾乎沒有哪句話是不冒犯某個少數族裔的。
Nixon also pivoted to the centre after winning the Republican nomination.
在贏得共和黨總統提名後，尼克松轉向了中間立場。
Mr Trump is doing the opposite.
特朗普截然相反
Not only is Mr Trump moving further to the extreme for the general election — a tactic for which there is no precedent in US presidential contests — he also mocks standard practice, such as setting up professional operations in the swing states.
他在迎接大選之際進一步走向極端——該策略在美國總統競選中是史無前例的——還嘲笑常規慣例，比如在搖擺州建立專業競選運作。
Mr Bannon, like Mr Manafort, has no campaign experience
和馬納福特一樣，班農也沒有競選經驗。
Mr Trump is an outsider, advised by outsiders, appealing to voters who see themselves as outsiders.
特朗普是個局外人，其顧問是局外人，吸引的選民自認爲是局外人。
Nixon would be aghast.
尼克松對此會感到錯愕。
This is not how you win elections.
這不是贏得競選的方式。
But it is a great way to leverage your brand.
但是，這是一個品牌運作的極好方式。
Many have doubted whether Mr Trump really expected to win the Republican nomination, let alone have a shot at the presidency.
很多人都懷疑特朗普是否真的期待過自己能贏得共和黨提名，更不用說有機會迎接大選了。
They suspected his candidacy was just another way of boosting the Trump name.
他們猜測，特朗普競選總統只是另一種推廣其品牌的方式。
In the process, Mr Trump found a huge market of people who respond to white identity politics.
在競選過程中，特朗普發現了白人身份認同政治的巨大市場。
In their view, Fox News has become the establishment.
在這個白人羣體看來，福克斯新聞(Fox News)已經成爲體制的一部分。
Its ousted founder, Mr Ailes, is at a loose end.
該機構被驅逐的創始人艾爾斯現在閒着。
Mr Trump has 11m Twitter followers, which is a multiple of Fox’s nightly audience.
特朗普在Twitter上擁有1100萬粉絲，是福克斯夜間觀衆的數倍。
What better response to defeat than to monetise your base by launching a Trump News Channel? Stranger things have happened.
面對失敗，有什麼能比從你的支持者獲益——開設特朗普新聞頻道——更好的迴應方式嗎？更奇怪的事都發生了。
Such a venture would convert all those resentments into hard cash.
這樣的項目將把所有那些怨恨轉化爲現金。
As a media baron, Mr Trump could also play chief thorn in the side of Mrs Clinton’s administration.
作爲媒體大亨，特朗普還可以扮演希拉里政府首席刺兒頭的角色。
There would be a certain poetry to that.
這種局面將有一些詩意。
Mrs Clinton worked as a legal aide to the Watergate committee that brought down Nixon.
當年希拉里在迫使尼克松下臺的水門事件調查委員會中擔任法律助理。
All politics is personal in Mr Trump’s world.
在特朗普的世界裏，一切政治都是個人層面的。
What more fitting way of completing the circle than avenging the ghost of Nixon?
還有什麼能比爲尼克松的魅影報仇更適合的方式來完成這個輪迴呢？
