特朗普從普京身上學到了什麼

While the allegations surrounding President Donald Trump’s shadowy ties to Russia are unsettling, as of yet, no smoking gun has been found. But on at least one issue, Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, are of a similar mind.
儘管圍繞美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)與俄羅斯存在神祕關係的指控令人不安，但到目前爲止還沒有發現支持這種說法的確鑿證據。不過，特朗普和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)至少在一個問題上想法一致。

When it comes to trade, Mr Trump’s approach is very much in line with the practice of Mr Putin’s Russia over the past 17 years. Always willing to use trade as a cudgel or a tool for geopolitical gains, both presidents seem to enthusiastically subordinate economic gains to political ends.
在貿易方面，特朗普的立場與普京領導的俄羅斯在過去17年中的做法非常一致。二人總是願意用貿易作爲獲取地緣政治好處的棍棒或工具，似乎熱衷於讓經濟利益從屬於政治目的。

However, one need only look at Russia today to see the end result of such policies. Rather than enrich the country, economic nationalism has led Russia to stagnation, a fate which could also befall the US.
然而，人們只需要看看今天的俄羅斯便知道此類政策的最終結果。經濟民族主義非但沒有使國家富足，反而導致俄羅斯經濟陷入停滯，這種命運可能也會降臨美國。

Mr Trump has been consistent even before his successful foray into politics in his disdain for free trade in general and multilateral trade deals in particular. Central to this approach is the belief that a country should use all means available to protect its national interest.
特朗普一貫藐視自由貿易、特別是多邊貿易協議，從他成功步入政壇之前就是如此。這種立場的核心是相信國家應該利用一切可以利用的手段來保護國家利益。

The president announced at his inauguration that “protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”, while Steve Bannon, his chief adviser, explicitly named this approach “economic nationalism” at his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
特朗普在就職演說上宣稱，“保護措施將帶來偉大的繁榮和實力”，而其首席顧問史蒂夫?班農(Steve Bannon)在保守派政治行動大會(Conservative Political Action Conference)的演講中把這種立場明確稱做“經濟民族主義”。

In earlier interviews, Mr Bannon expanded on this idea, railing against “globalists” who “created a middle class in Asia”, “gutting the American working class”. Peter Navarro, the head of the newly-created National Trade Council, has gone even further and spoken of unwinding international supply chains in order to keep production in the US.
在更早的採訪中，班農詳細闡述了這種想法，抨擊了那些“成就了亞洲中產階級”、“擊垮了美國工人階級”的“全球主義者”。新成立的國家貿易委員會(National Trade Council)的主席彼得?納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)甚至更進一步，提出爲了讓生產留在美國國內應該瓦解國際供應鏈。

This approach, jarring to the ears of any economist, is also sadly familiar from both history and contemporary practice. One of its main proponents is Mr Putin, who is on record repeatedly supporting economic nationalism and strategic trade policy.
這種立場——在任何經濟學家聽來都很刺耳——不管從歷史還是當代實踐來看都可悲地令人耳熟能詳。普京就是這種立場的主要支持者之一，他多次公開支持經濟民族主義和戰略性貿易政策。

President Putin is credited with publishing a dissertation in 1997 touching on these themes. In the paper, he spoke of harnessing the power of industry for the glory of the state, subsidising industry at home to keep domestic prices low and production within a country’s borders.
普京被認爲在1997年發表了一篇關於這些主題的論文。在文中，他談到爲了國家的榮耀而利用工業的力量，補貼國內產業以保持國內價格處於低位並讓生產留在境內。

To pay for this support, the costs would be passed on to foreign consumers in the form of much higher prices. This worldview has been a justification for the creeping nationalisation of the commanding heights of the Russian economy, above all Gazprom, and also has informed Russia’s indiscriminate use of tariffs, repeatedly breaking treaties as necessary in order to keep official duties high. Such an approach has benefited the non-tradeable sector, mainly extractive industries, while harming tradeables such as agriculture and technology.
爲了獲取資金提供這種支持，成本被以擡高價格的方式轉嫁給外國消費者。這種世界觀正是俄羅斯經濟中重量級企業、尤其是俄羅斯天然氣工業公司(Gazprom)進行國有化的一個原因，也解釋了俄羅斯濫用關稅、在必要時再三違反條約以保持高額政府稅收的做法。這類做法有利於那些非貿易型行業，主要是採掘行業，而損害了農業、技術等貿易型行業。

This is precisely what Messrs Bannon, Trump, Navarro and others in the US administration have been espousing, especially in regards to Mr Bannon’s call for massive infrastructure investments (a key non-tradeable).
這正是美國政府中班農、特朗普、納瓦羅等人所一直支持的主張，特別是班農呼籲進行大規模的基礎設施投資（關鍵的非貿易型行業）。

Once enacted, however, economic nationalism tends to take on a life of its own. Despite being a member of the World Trade Organisation, Russia has also famously utilised non-tariff barriers such as sanitary regulations and quality control to restrict trade from whomever it was quarrelling with at that moment.
然而，一旦付諸實施，經濟民族主義往往就有了自己的生命。儘管屬於世界貿易組織(WTO)的成員，但俄羅斯還總愛利用衛生法規和質量控制等非關稅壁壘，限制與之爆發爭執的國家的對俄貿易。

Tiny states that refuse to kowtow to Moscow’s political directives have been the recipients of Mr Putin’s trade policies, with Moldova and Georgia both suffering bans on their wine due to “pesticides” and Belarus seeing a ban on its dairy products in 2009. In each of these cases, a political dispute, generally involving a turn towards the EU, preceded these sudden quality issues.
拒絕臣服於莫斯科政治指令的小國就會受制於普京的貿易政策，摩爾多瓦和格魯吉亞都因“殺蟲劑”問題而被俄羅斯實施紅酒進口禁令，2009年白俄羅斯遭受了乳製品進口禁令。在每一個案例中，各國在突然出現質量問題前都與俄羅斯發生了政治爭端——往往涉及那些國家向歐盟示好。

Perhaps the most dramatic use of such instruments is in Ukraine, where Mr Putin used the threat of embargo for years to bring Kiev to heel. After the Euromaidan Revolution in early 2014 and the ouster of Viktor Yanukovich, the Russian-backed president, Russia imposed a series of embargoes culminating in a complete food ban in 2016 and a series of import bans with the EU.
俄羅斯最激烈地採用此類手段的一次是對付烏克蘭，普京以威脅實施多年貿易禁運來逼基輔就範。在2014年初烏克蘭革命以及俄羅斯支持的烏克蘭前總統維克托?亞努科維奇(Viktor Yanukovich)下臺後，俄羅斯對烏克蘭實施了一系列禁運（最後以2016年的全面食品禁令收尾），並對歐盟實施了一系列進口禁令。

The example of Russia, the world’s leading proponent of strategic trade policy, should be a cautionary tale for Mr Trump. Russia’s policy has left it isolated and concentrated, susceptible to commodity price swings and with a declining standard of living. Despite record popularity for seizing Crimea, Russia’s inflation rate topped 15 per cent in 2015 and the economy has contracted since.
俄羅斯是世界上倡導戰略性貿易政策的主要國家，它的事例應該對特朗普起到警示作用。俄羅斯的政策使得它被孤立併成爲衆矢之的，容易受到大宗商品價格波動的影響，且居民生活水平不斷下滑。儘管其領導人憑藉吞併克里米亞而獲得創紀錄的支持率，但2015年俄羅斯的通脹率高達15%，俄羅斯經濟也自此陷入萎縮。

Extractive industries, once merely a third of Russia budget revenues, have regularly been above 50 per cent since 2006 and comprise well over 65 per cent of Russia’s exports. Behind a wall of protection, Russia has become a mono-economy, with US senator John McCain’s jibe that Russia was a “gas station masquerading as a country” not far off the mark. The drop in global oil prices since late 2014 has deepened the country’s economic malaise.
曾經在俄羅斯預算收入中僅佔三分之一的採掘行業，自2006年以來佔預算收入的比例通常在50%以上，佔俄羅斯出口的比例超過65%。在保護主義的高牆後，俄羅斯成爲了單一經濟體。對此，美國參議員約翰?麥凱恩(John McCain)嘲諷俄羅斯是“假扮成國家的加油站”，這話並不離譜。自2014年末以來的國際油價下滑，使俄羅斯經濟更加蕭條。

Mr Putin has shown little interest in economic policy or in enacting pro-growth policies, instead seeing economics as a means to an end. Unfortunately, Mr Trump has espoused that very same worldview, a view which has led to a “stagnant but stable” Russia.
普京對經濟政策或實行促增長的政策沒什麼興趣，相反他把經濟視爲達到目的的手段。不幸的是，特朗普信奉的是同樣的世界觀——該觀點造就了“停滯但穩定的”俄羅斯。

While Mr Trump sees politics as paramount for national greatness, to paraphrase Trotsky, you may not be interested in economics, but economics is interested in you.
儘管特朗普認爲政治對於實現國家偉大是至關重要的，但套用托洛茨基(Trotsky)的話來說，你或許對經濟沒興趣，但經濟對你有興趣。

Christopher A. Hartwell is the President of the Centre for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw (CASE) and the author of “Two Roads Diverge: the Transition Experience of Poland and Ukraine” (Cambridge University Press, 2016).
本文作者爲位於華沙的社會和經濟研究中心(Centre for Social and Economic Research)主席，著有《兩條截然不同的道路：波蘭和烏克蘭的轉型經驗》(Two Roads Diverge: the Transition Experience of Poland and Ukraine)（劍橋大學出版社(Cambridge University Press)，2016年）