特朗普 我得到了人民的授權

Donald J. Trump’s behavior in recent days — the political threats to the House speaker, Paul D. Ryan; the name-calling on Twitter; the attacks on Hillary Clinton’s marriage — has deeply puzzled Republicans who expected him to move to unite the Party, start acting presidential and begin courting the female voters he will need in the general election.

唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)最近幾天的行爲——對衆議院議長保羅·D·瑞安(Paul D. Ryan)發出政治威脅、在Twitter上罵人、攻擊希拉里·克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的婚姻——讓一些共和黨人深感困惑。他們本希望特朗普行動起來，團結全黨，開始讓自己的行事有總統的樣子，並着手爭取他在大選中所需要的女性選民的支持。

But Mr. Trump’s choices reflect an unusual conviction: He said he had a “mandate” from his supporters to run as a fiery populist outsider and to rely on his raucous rallies to build support through “word of mouth,” rather than to embrace a traditional, mellower and more inclusive approach that congressional Republicans will advocate in meetings with him on Thursday.

但特朗普的選擇反映出了一個與衆不同的信念：他稱自己得到了支持者的“授權”，要以一個激情四射的民粹主義局外人的身份競選，並依靠喧鬧嘈雜的集會，通過“口口相傳”的方式來尋求支持，而不是採取更老練、更全面的傳統方式。國會的共和黨人將在週四與他舉行會面時倡導後一種方式。

Mr. Trump’s strategy is replete with risks. Roughly 60 percent of Americans view him negatively, according to pollsters, who say more-of-the-same Trump is not likely to improve those numbers. While a majority of Republican primary voters said they were looking for a political outsider, Mr. Trump will face a majority of voters in November who prefer a candidate with political experience, according to primary exit polls and several national polls. Many Republicans think they will lose the presidency and seats in the House and Senate if he continues using language that offends women and some racial and religious groups.

特朗普的戰略充滿風險。民調顯示，約60%的美國人對特朗普持負面評價，並稱不作出重大改變的特朗普不太可能改善這些數據。儘管大部分共和黨初選選民稱他們期待出現一個政治局外人，但初選出口民調和幾次全國性民調顯示，特朗普11月面對的選民中，大多數更喜歡有政治經驗的候選人。很多共和黨人認爲，如果特朗普繼續使用會冒犯女性及一些種族和宗教團體的語言，他們將失去總統的寶座和參衆兩院的席位。

Still, Mr. Trump’s message, tone and policy ideas have drawn followers who are more passionate than Republican nominees typically enjoy, and he has monopolized the political conversation and news coverage of the race. Some Republicans argue that he cannot afford to change his stripes too much, while strategists in both parties say he is shrewdly sticking with a style that drowns out attacks that could deepen his negative rating.

但特朗普的觀點、口吻和政策理念依然吸引了一些追隨者。他們比典型的支持共和黨提名人選的選民更熱情，並且特朗普壟斷了有關政治的談話和新聞媒體對選舉的報道。一些共和黨人稱特朗普不能改變太多，而兩黨的策略師則稱他是在精明地堅持一種風格，這種風格會把可能加深對其負面評價的攻擊淹沒。

“His rally rants and Twitter brawls are meant to dominate the media coverage and public conversation so that Democratic challenges have less space to break through all of the noise,” said Guy Cecil, the chief strategist and co-chairman of Priorities USA, the “super PAC” supporting Mrs. Clinton. “He doesn’t want people talking about his record or positions.”

“他在集會上的咆哮和在Twitter上的爭吵是爲了主導媒體報道和公衆談話，這樣一來民主黨的挑戰就沒有太多餘地去突破所有這些噪音，”支持克林頓的超級政治行動委員會“優先美國”(Priorities USA)的首席策略師、聯合主席蓋伊·塞西爾(Guy Cecil)說。“他不想讓人們討論他的履歷或職務。”

Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview, compared his candidacy to hit Broadway shows and championship baseball teams, saying that success begot success and that he would be foolish to change his behavior now.

接受電話採訪時，特朗普將自己的候選人身份比作熱門的百老匯演出和奪冠的棒球隊，稱成功是成功之母，並表示現在改變行爲舉止是愚蠢的。

“You win the pennant and now you’re in the World Series — you gonna change?” Mr. Trump said. “People like the way I’m doing.”

“在聯盟內獲勝了，現在要參加世界大賽，這時候改變？”特朗普說。“人們喜歡我現在的方式。”

He argued that he stood a better chance of inspiring voters in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania if he was his authentic self, rather than shifting from populist outsider to political insider to please a relative handful of Republican elites who are part of the establishment he has railed against for months. He said his huge rallies, where outbursts of violence and racist taunts have vexed many Republican leaders, and his attacks against adversaries on Twitter and in television interviews would continue because he believes Americans admire his aggressive, take-charge style.

他說，只要堅持做真實的自己，而不是從一個民粹主義外行變成一個政治內行，以取悅相對而言屬於少數的共和黨精英，他就有更大的機會去爭取俄亥俄和賓夕法尼亞等州選民。共和黨精英正是他數月來所抨擊的建制派的一部分。他說他會繼續舉辦大型集會，繼續在Twitter上和電視採訪中攻擊對手，因爲他相信美國人欣賞他這種好鬥、發號施令的風格。支持特朗普的集會上爆發的暴力行爲和種族歧視的奚落言語，使很多共和黨領袖大爲惱火。

“I think I have a mandate from the people,” Mr. Trump continued, referring to his victories in 29 states, including Nebraska and West Virginia on Tuesday night. “The people are tired of incompetent leadership at the highest level. They’re tired of trade deals that are ripping our jobs apart and taking their wages.”

“我認爲我得到了人民的授權，”特朗普繼續說。他指的是他在29個州取得的勝利，包括週二晚上在內布拉斯加和西弗吉尼亞州的獲勝。“人們厭倦了最高領導人的無能。他們厭倦了就業機會被破壞，厭倦了掠奪他們的工資的貿易協議。”

Mandates are usually claimed after a presidential candidate wins a general election, not a party nomination, but part of Mr. Trump’s style and strategy is to project a supreme confidence in himself and his popularity with voters. Several Republicans said they put little stock in his claim, arguing that he had won support from only a fraction of the electorate and had yet to prove he was worthy of leading the entire Republican Party, not just his fractious and highly visible wing.

總統候選人通常是在贏得大選，而不是黨內提名後稱自己獲得了授權，但特朗普的風格和戰略的一部分就是展現對他自己，以及選民對他的支持的超級自信。多名共和黨人表示他們幾乎不信特朗普的話，稱他只是贏得了全體選民中的一小部分人的支持，尚需證明他適合領導整個共和黨，而不只是他所在的那個脾氣暴躁且愛出風頭的派系。

“Donald Trump did earn a mandate from Republican primary voters,” said Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican facing a tough re-election fight in Pennsylvania, whose primary Mr. Trump won with 57 percent of the vote. “My advice to him is that he should now consider how he will appeal to the many Republican and non-Republican voters who have serious concerns about his candidacy.”

“唐納德·特朗普的確從共和黨初選選民那裏贏得了授權，”面臨着激烈的連任競選大戰的賓夕法尼亞州共和黨參議員帕特里克·J·圖米(Patrick J. Toomey)說。“我對他的建議是，他現在應該考慮如何吸引對他的候選人身份嚴重關切的很多共和黨和非共和黨選民。”在該州的初選中，特朗普贏得了57%的選票。

Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire said that electoral mandates were a fallacy in American politics, and that leaders only did well when they focused on “ideas in the center that unite people.”

前新罕布什爾州參議員賈德·格雷格(Judd Gregg)稱，選民的授權是美國政治中的一個謬論，領導人只有在把重點放在“把人們團結起來的核心理念”上時，纔會有好的表現。

“I don’t even think the 1980 Reagan landslide gave Reagan a mandate,” said Mr. Gregg, whose state gave Mr. Trump his first win in the primaries, and who has not decided if he will follow through on his pledge to support the Republican nominee. “He was effective because the country was in terrible shape and he was able to bring large numbers of people behind his ideas. Trump hasn’t done that.”

“我甚至認爲里根1980年的壓倒性勝利都沒讓他得到授權，”尚未決定是否兌現支持共和黨提名人選承諾的格雷格說。在他所在的州，特朗普贏得了初選中的首場勝利。“他取得了成效是因爲當時國家是一個爛攤子，他能夠讓大量民衆支持自己的觀點。特朗普還沒做到這一點。”

But Patrick J. Buchanan, the conservative commentator and past presidential candidate, said Mr. Trump was rallying historic numbers of voters with a mix of conservative ideas and anti-establishment populism that evoked, among other politicians, Ross Perot and his magnetic appeal in the 1992 campaign. Mr. Perot lost, of course, but Mr. Buchanan said that Mr. Trump might stand a better chance.

但曾經競選過總統的保守派評論人士帕特里克·J·布坎南(Patrick J. Buchanan)表示，特朗普正在用保守思想和反正統民粹主義的結合，團結一羣規模空前龐大的選民。這種反正統民粹主義讓人想起了羅斯·佩羅(Ross Perot)等政界人物，以及佩羅在1992年競選總統時的魅力。當然佩羅失敗了，但布坎南稱特朗普的機會可能更大一些。

“With the largest Republican turnout ever, Trump eliminated 16 rivals and is on track to winning more votes than any Republican nominee in history,” he said. “That gives him a mandate to lead the Republican Party and move ahead with his plans to secure the border, pull back from foreign interventions and wars, and end these terrible trade deals.”

“在共和黨投票人數達到有史以來的最高水平的情況下，特朗普淘汰了16名競爭對手，並且有望成爲史上獲得選票最多的共和黨提名人，”他說。“這授權他領導共和黨，並推進保護邊境、從境外干預和戰爭中抽身，以及結束這些糟糕的貿易協議的計劃。”

In Mr. Trump’s view, the rallies and the Twitter wars — even when he is punching down against a little-known evangelical leader (Russell Moore of the Southern Baptist Convention) and a cable talk show host (Joe Scarborough of MSNBC), as he did recently — are crowd-pleasers, creating buzz that is critical to dominating the political landscape and overshadowing Mrs. Clinton’s message and attacks. Last week, he kept his commitments for rallies in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington State, even though he already had a lock on the nomination.

在特朗普看來，集會和Twitter上的戰火——即便是在他像前不久所做的那樣，攻擊一名鮮爲人知的基督教福音派領袖（美南浸信會[Southern Baptist Convention]的羅素·摩爾[Russell Moore]）和一個有線頻道脫口秀節目主持人（MSNBC的喬·斯卡伯勒[Joe Scarborough]）時——都是取悅民衆的行爲，能夠製造轟動，而這這種轟動，對主導政治形勢和讓克林頓的言論及攻擊黯然失色是至關重要的。上週，他履行了在內布拉斯加、俄勒岡和華盛頓州舉行集會的諾言，儘管他已牢牢鎖定了提名。

“In a Broadway theater, the best, the best, absolute best sale is called ‘word of mouth,’ ” said Mr. Trump, who once dabbled in theater producing. “If people love a Broadway show, it’s better than if you write a good review. Word of mouth is the No. 1 thing. And the word of mouth at my rallies is like, ‘You’ve got to go see it.’ And, you know, one person goes and they talk about it to 20 people.”

“在百老匯劇院裏，最最好，絕對是最好的銷售技巧叫‘口口相傳’，”曾涉足戲劇製作的特朗普說。“要是人們喜歡百老匯的一齣戲，這比寫一篇優秀的劇評管用。口口相傳是第一位的。而我的集會上的口口相傳就是，‘你一定要去看看啊。’而且你知道的，一個人去了，他們就會告訴20個人。”