特朗普和普京的危險默契
What is going on between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? That question hung over the US election.
弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)和唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)之間有什麼默契嗎？這個問題一直籠罩着美國大選。
Now that Mr Trump has won the presidency, the question of his relationship with the Russian leader assumes global significance.
現在特朗普已經勝選，他與俄羅斯領導人的關係具有了全球重大意義。
Mr Trump’s statements are often confusing and contradictory.
特朗普的聲明往往是令人困惑和前後矛盾的。
But on Russia, he has been pretty consistent and clear.
但在俄羅斯問題上，他一直相當一致和明確。
He regards Mr Putin as a strong leader, worthy of admiration, and wants to see a sharp improvement in US-Russian relations.
他將普京視爲一位值得欽佩的強有力領袖，並且希望看到美俄關係大幅改善。
As Mr Trump put it recently: Wouldn’t it be great if we actually got along with Russia?
就如特朗普最近說的：如果我們實際上能夠和俄羅斯友好相處，難道不是很棒嗎？
Mr Trump’s America will clearly try to strike a deal with Mr Putin’s Russia.
特朗普領導的美國顯然將試圖與普京領導的俄羅斯達成一項協議。
But what would that deal look like? Here is my best guess.
但這將是怎樣的一項協議呢？以下是我猜測的最有可能的結果。
The US will end its opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
美國將不再反對俄羅斯吞併克里米亞:
Although America may not agree to the formal legal incorporation of Crimea into Russia, it would accept it as a fait accompli.
儘管美國或許不會認同俄羅斯從法律上將克里米亞正式納入版圖，但美國將接受這一點爲既成事實。
Following that, the US will lift economic sanctions.
此後，美國將解除對俄羅斯的經濟制裁。
The Americans will also drop any suggestion that Ukraine or Georgia will join Nato.
美國還將放棄讓烏克蘭或者格魯吉亞加入北約(Nato)的任何提案。
The build-up of Nato troops in the Baltic states will also be slowed or stopped.
在波羅的海國家增加部署北約駐軍的步伐也會放慢或者停止。
In return for these large concessions, Russia will be expected to wind down its aggression in eastern Ukraine and not attempt to make further territorial gains there.
作爲對這些巨大讓步的回報，俄羅斯將被預期逐步收斂其在烏克蘭東部的侵略行爲，並且不再企圖進一步在那裏搶佔領土。
Russian pressure and implicit threats towards the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be dropped.
俄羅斯將不再對波羅的海國家（愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛）施加壓力和發出隱性威脅。
Military tensions on the front line between Nato and Russia will be dialled down.
北約和俄羅斯之間的前線的軍事緊張將得到緩和。
With their conflict in eastern Europe eased, the US and Russia will make common cause in the Middle East.
在東歐的衝突緩和之後，美俄雙方將在中東聯手推進共同事業。
The US will drop its commitment to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and will join the Russians in an attack on the Isis militant group.
美國將放棄其推翻敘利亞總統巴沙爾.阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)的承諾，並將與俄羅斯一起打擊伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國(ISIS)武裝組織。
The attractions of such a deal from Mr Trump’s point of view are obvious.
在特朗普看來，這種協議的吸引力顯而易見。
If it worked, it would defuse an increasingly dangerous confrontation between the US and Russia.
如能奏效，它將緩和美俄之間日益危險的對峙。
During his campaign, Mr Trump accused Hillary Clinton of risking a third world war: a reference to her promise to declare a no-fly zone over Syria, which might have led to confrontation between the US and Russian air forces.
在競選期間，特朗普指責希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)帶來讓第三次世界大戰爆發的風險：他指的是希拉里承諾在敘利亞上空劃設禁飛區，這可能導致美俄兩國的空軍發生對峙。
Abandoning the Obama administration’s goal of getting rid of President Assad would also resolve the longstanding incoherence in US Syria policy, which sometimes seemed to place America on both sides of a civil war.
放棄奧巴馬政府推翻阿薩德的目標，也會消除美國對敘利亞政策長期存在的不協調之處——這一政策有時似乎讓美國同時站在一場內戰的兩邊。
Reducing tensions in eastern Europe would also be a considerable prize given that Russia has just moved nuclear weapons into the territorial enclave of Kaliningrad, which lies between Poland and Lithuania.
考慮到俄羅斯剛剛在夾在波蘭和立陶宛中間的飛地加里寧格勒部署核武，減緩東歐的緊張也將是一個相當大的收穫。
Finally, the lifting of sanctions and the return to commerce as usual would appeal to the businessman in Mr Trump.
最後，解除對俄羅斯的制裁、恢復經貿往來也會迎合特朗普的商人意識。
Yet while the attractions of such a deal are clear, the potential pitfalls are huge.
然而，儘管這樣的協議顯然具有吸引力，但其中也暗藏了巨大的陷阱。
First, allying with the butchers of Aleppo would involve a level of calculating amorality that will revolt many in America and Europe.
首先，與阿勒頗的屠夫們結盟帶有一定程度的不道德盤算，這將讓美國和歐洲的很多人感到噁心。
Second, it involves placing a huge amount of trust in Mr Putin’s willingness to keep his side of the bargain — rather than simply pocketing western concessions and then coming back for more, perhaps in the Baltic states.
第二，這意味着要對普京寄予極大的信任，相信他會信守自己的協議承諾，而不會只是把西方的讓步照單全收，然後得寸進尺地索求更多讓步（比如對於波羅的海國家）。
Newt GingRich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives and now likely to get a top job under Mr Trump, said recently that Estonia is in the suburbs of St Petersburg — which hardly suggests an unequivocal commitment to the independence of that country.
有望在特朗普的新政府中獲得一個頂級任命的前衆議院議長紐特.金裏奇(Newt Gingrich)最近表示，愛沙尼亞坐落在聖彼得堡郊區——這種話不像是對愛沙尼亞主權獨立的明確承諾。
The amorality of making common cause with presidents Assad and Putin is unlikely to trouble Mr Trump.
與阿薩德和普京聯手的不道德性質，不太可能讓特朗普感到不安。
Asked early in the campaign about Mr Putin’s alleged habit of killing journalists, Mr Trump replied: Our country does plenty of killing too.
在競選的早期，他曾被問及如何看待普京據稱存在的暗殺新聞從業人員的不良習慣，特朗普答道：我們國家也殺了不少人。
Mr Trump has also endorsed torture, so is unlikely to be squeamish about a de facto alliance with the Assad regime.
特朗普還贊同刑訊，因此他不太可能因爲在事實上與阿薩德政權結盟而心煩意亂。
Even so, it would be a huge gamble for the new US president to place his faith in his wily, experienced Russian counterpart.
即使如此，美國新總統選擇相信狡猾老練的俄羅斯總統，也是一場豪賭。
If Mr Putin were to renege on his promises, Mr Trump would look like a chump, and he hates that.
如果普京背信棄義，特朗普會顯得像個白癡，而他會憎恨那種結局。
In the end, a lot may depend on how Mr Trump and his advisers assess Russian motives.
歸根結底，很多事情要取決於特朗普和他的顧問們如何評估俄羅斯方面的動機。
Most of the foreign policy establishment in Washington will warn Mr Trump to be deeply suspicious of Mr Putin and will argue that any American concessions will be seen as weakness and encourage further Russian aggression.
華盛頓的多數外交政策建制派人士會警告特朗普，要深度懷疑普京，並主張：美國的任何讓步將被視爲軟弱，鼓勵俄羅斯發起進一步的侵略。
But a rival school of thought argues that what Mr Putin wants, above all, is respect.
但一個對立的思想學派主張：普京最想要的是尊重。
This school believes that if Washington treats Moscow as an equal, and makes it clear that America has no intention of encouraging Russia’s liberal opposition, then a new deal with Russia is possible.
這個學派相信，如果華盛頓把莫斯科視爲平起平坐的夥伴，並明確表示美國無意鼓勵俄羅斯的自由主義反對派，那麼與俄羅斯達成新協議是可能的。
A deal constructed along these lines would essentially represent a return to a Nixonian approach to Moscow, with the White House attempting a new form of detente with the Kremlin.
按照這種思路構建的協議，本質上將意味着迴歸尼克松時代的對俄策略，白宮試圖與克里姆林宮達成一種新形式的緩和。
It is even possible that 93-year-old Henry Kissinger, who served as President Richard Nixon’s secretary of state,
甚至有可能的是，當年理查德.尼克松(Richard Nixon)總統的國務卿、現已93歲的亨利.基辛格(Henry Kissinger)將扮演顧問或者中介角色。基辛格仍在四處奔波，本月還應邀訪問莫斯科。
