特朗普國會演說揭示了什麼

To say Donald Trump’s pivot to optimism came across as a character transplant would be an understatement.

說唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)變得樂觀就像是性格移植，是一種輕描淡寫。

It was as though Barack Obama took to yelLing expletives at passers-by or Bill Clinton fixed his gaze on his shoes. Or perhaps a close-shaven Abraham Lincoln suddenly sprung up on the podium. With the brief exception of his acceptance speech on 9 November, this was America’s first glimpse of an upbeat President Trump. He wore it surprisingly well.

這就好像是巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)開始大聲咒罵路人，或是比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)改掉了他喜歡低頭盯着鞋的習慣，又或者是刮掉鬍子的亞伯拉罕?林肯(Abraham Lincoln)突然出現在演講臺上。除了11月9日的勝選演講，特朗普在國會發表的首次演講是美國第一次看到積極樂觀的特朗普總統。他表現得驚人地好。

His first address to Congress lasted an hour. It was by far the most presidential speech Mr Trump has yet given. The question is whether he can stick to it for hours, days or even weeks.

他的這次演講持續了1個小時。這絕對是迄今爲止特朗普作出的最有總統樣子的演講。問題是他能否堅持數小時、數天、甚至數週。

Given Mr Trump’s record, the odds must be with the sceptics. Leaving that aside for a moment, it is worth stressing three things.

考慮到特朗普的過往，肯定是懷疑派的勝算比較大。暫且拋開這一點，有三件事值得強調。

First, Mr Trump’s opening forty days may have gone better had he adopted Tuesday night’s tone at his inaugural address on 20 January. That notorious moment has already gone down as the “American carnage” speech after Mr Trump’s dystopian vision of the country he was inheriting — and his xenophobic tone towards the world.

首先，如果特朗普在1月20日就職演講中採用了上週二晚上的語氣，他新官上任的頭40天裏本可能更順利。在特朗普對他接手的國家給出了反烏托邦的願景、並對全世界擺出排外態度後，那一臭名昭著的時刻已經作爲“美國大屠殺”式演講而載入史冊。

On Tuesday, Mr Trump executed a big change in tone possibly after a family intervention. It is no coincidence that his Twitter account went quiet for the preceding 24 hours — Mr Trump’s longest period of social media silence since taking office. If good ratings are what Mr Trump most craves — and his compulsive viewing habits would suggest that they are — it is just possible the good feedback from Tuesday night will create its own positive cycle.

上週二，特朗普的語氣大爲轉變，這可能是源於家庭干預。絕非巧合的是，他的Twitter賬戶在之前的24小時保持沉寂——這是自他上任以來在社交媒體上最長時間的沉默。如果特朗普最渴望的是好評——他強迫式的審視習慣意味着確實如此——來自上週二晚上的良好反饋可能會創造良性循環。

Second, tone really does matter. In terms of substance, Mr Trump’s speech was little different from what he said on 20 January.

第二，語氣確實很重要。在內容方面，特朗普這次演講與他在1月20日的演講幾乎沒有差別。

The content was just as “America first” on Tuesday as it was then — with the big exception of Mr Trump’s positive words about Nato, which were glaringly absent from his inaugural address.

上週二，特朗普演講的內容就是之前所說的“美國優先”(America first)——主要區別是特朗普對北約(Nato)的積極評價，這是其就職演講明顯缺失的。

The influence of Gen Jim Mattis, who is shaping up to be a key figure in the Trump administration, was reflected in the general’s beaming visage.

吉姆?馬蒂斯將軍(General Jim Mattis)正逐漸成爲特朗普政府的關鍵人物，他的影響力反映在容光煥發的臉上。

Other than that significant “shout out” to America’s alliance partners, Mr Trump laid out roughly what was expected. He promised big tax cuts, federal deregulation, a major infrastructure plan, a wall on the US-Mexico border and the deportation of “bad people”. He even announced the creation of an Orwellian-sounding federal unit to look after the victims of crime carried out by illegal immigrants — the Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement (Voice). That was vintage Trump. His decision to privilege such victims largely drowned out his call for the US to adopt a Canada-style merit-based immigration system. The latter may well prove to have been a significant announcement.

除了向美國盟友們作出這一重要“喊話”外，特朗普的講話基本符合預期。他承諾大幅減稅、放寬聯邦監管、實施大規模基礎設施計劃、在美墨邊境建起高牆並且驅逐“壞人”。他甚至宣佈打造一個聽起來像奧威爾式(Orwellian)的聯邦機構，來照顧非法移民所犯罪行的受害者——移民犯罪受害者辦公室（Victims Of Immigration Crime Engagement Office，簡稱Voice）。這是典型的特朗普。他給予這些受害者特殊待遇的決定，基本上淹沒了他呼籲美國採用加拿大式的積分制移民制度的聲音。後者本來很可能會成爲一項重要政策。

The final aspect was the degree to which Mr Trump’s speech showed how readily the Republican party is now eating out of his hand.

最後一點，特朗普的演講展現瞭如今共和黨對特朗普多麼服服帖帖。

Forty days may be biblical shorthand for a long time. But it is astonishing how rapidly Mr Trump has turned a pro-free trade party into an extension of his America First movement.

40天或許是很長時間的縮影。但令人驚訝的是，特朗普如此快速地把一個支持自由貿易的黨派轉變成了他“美國優先”行動的延伸。

It was striking to watch Paul Ryan, the Republican speaker, and supposed fiscal conservative, applaud a speech that did not once mention the US budget deficit while unveiling measures that ensured it would swell.

看到衆議院議長、所謂的財政保守派共和黨人保羅?瑞安(Paul Ryan)，爲一次都未提及美國預算赤字、而又宣佈了註定會讓赤字膨脹的措施的演講而鼓掌，令人震驚。

No matter how low Mr Trump’s approval ratings fall — at 44 per cent, they are already at a historic low for a president this early into his term — he retains the ability to threaten the job security of any Republican who opposes him.

無論特朗普的支持率會降到多低——目前爲44%，已經是歷屆美國總統上任初期支持率的最低水平了——他都保留着威脅炒掉任何一個反對他的共和黨人的能力。

At almost 90 per cent his approval ratings among registered Republicans is relatively high. This reflects just how bitterly polarised the US has become. Mr Trump may not be loved by his own party on Capitol Hill. But he is feared.

他在登記的共和黨人之間的支持率相對很高，幾乎達到了90%。這反映出美國如今兩極分化是多麼嚴重。國會山(Capitol Hill)的共和黨人或許不愛特朗普，但他們都怕他。

Democrats clearly loathe him — even when he is doing his best impression of Ronald Reagan. They sat in stony silence throughout even when he called for bipartisan action to solve America’s problems.

民主黨明顯討厭特朗普——即使他如今正竭盡全力地模仿羅納德?里根(Ronald Reagan)。他們全程沉默地坐着，即使是在特朗普呼籲兩黨共同採取行動解決美國問題的時候也是如此。

In a night of unexpected lines, Mr Trump’s most memorable was when he said: “The time for trivial fights is over.”

在頻頻說出令人意外之言的那晚，特朗普最令人印象深刻的是當他說：“進行瑣碎爭鬥的時候已經結束。”

It was a moment of high chutzpah given Mr Trump’s penchant for picking Twitter battles with celebrities, the media, and stray pundits on TV. He could just possibly have meant it. That was Tuesday night. Will Wednesday morning Trump retain the sunny optimism? We shall find out soon enough.

考慮到特朗普熱衷於在Twitter上挑起與名人、媒體和電視節目中專家的戰爭，這一刻他真是厚顏無恥。他也可能是認真的。那是上週二的晚上。之後特朗普還會保持這種陽光樂觀嗎？我們很快就會得到答案。