特朗普和希拉里第一次辯論說錯了什麼?

《紐約時報》對美國大選第一場辯論中提及的事實進行了覈實，顯然《紐約時報》更支持希拉里。

Foreign Policy and National Security
Mr. Trump said Mrs. Clinton had been “fighting ISIS your entire adult life.” In reality, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began as an Al Qaeda affiliate that sprang up in Iraq as the Sunni insurgency amid the power vacuum created by the 2003 American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s government in 2003.
特朗普說克林頓“整個成年生涯都在和伊斯蘭國作戰”。事實上，伊斯蘭國最初是基地組織的一個分支，2003年美國推翻薩達姆政府後造成了權力真空，其作爲遜尼派的叛軍在伊拉克興起。

It was largely defeated and pushed into Syria during the Obama administration’s first term, when Clinton was secretary of state. It eventually split from the original Al Qaeda and rebranded itself as ISIS, sweeping back into Iraq in 2014, when she was out of office.
在奧巴馬第一任期內，克林頓任國務卿時，這一股叛軍節節敗退，退入敘利亞境內，最終與原來的基地組織分裂，並重新標榜爲伊斯蘭國，2014年希拉里不再擔任國務卿時再次進入伊拉克。
—Charles Savage

Mrs. Clinton blamed Russia for conducting cyberattacks, saying Russia and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia were playing a “long Game” here. She’s right, but the United States has not yet publicly named Russia as the attacker against the Democratic National Committee, much less the State Department, the White House and the Joint Chiefs.
克林頓指責俄羅斯從事網絡攻擊，表示俄羅斯和普京“所圖者大”。她說得對，但美國並沒有公開稱俄羅斯是民主黨全國委員會的攻擊者，更別提國務院、白宮和參謀聯席會議。

“The United States has much greater capacity,” she said, seeming to threaten that the United States could respond in kind. She appeared to be referring to Washington’s own offensive cyberability, made clear in the American attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, code-named “Olympic Games,” which played out while she was secretary of state. Again, the United States has never admitted to that cyberoffensive action.
她說“美國有的是辦法”，威脅說美國應該以牙還牙。她看起來指涉華盛頓自己的網絡攻勢，表明美國對伊朗核項目進行攻擊，代號“奧運會”，她任國務卿期間開展了這一行動。同樣，美國也從未承認發起過該網絡攻擊。

Mr. Trump seemed to try to deflect responsibility away from Moscow. “It could be Russia,” he said, “but it could also be China.” United States intelligence officials disagree: This most recent round of attacks, they concluded with “high confidence,” indeed originated from Russia.
特朗普試圖推卸莫斯科的責任。他說：“攻擊可能來自俄羅斯，也可能是中國。”美國情報官員提出異議：他們“高度相信”最近一輪攻擊確實來自俄羅斯。
—David E. Sanger

Mr. Trump said the Islamic State would never have come into power if the United States had stayed in Iraq, and if the United States had “taken the oil,” especially in Libya.
特朗普說如果美國留在伊拉克，如果美國“拿走石油”，尤其在利比亞，伊斯蘭國永遠不會掌權。

The assertion is impossible to disprove, but it’s unlikely that 10,000 troops remaining in Iraq would have made much of a difference — especially in Syria and Libya, where the United States never had troops. Moreover, much of the Islamic State’s revenue has come from smuggling and taxes on local people, and much of the oil infrastructure has been destroyed, as has the Islamic State’s transportation network.
這一說法很難證否，但10000名軍隊留在伊拉克不可能有什麼用，尤其對敘利亞和利比亞而言，美國在那裏從未駐軍。另外，伊斯蘭國大多數收入來自走私和對當地居民收稅，大多數石油基礎設施被毀，伊斯蘭國的交通也被阻斷。
—David E. Sanger

Mr. Trump said that the United States should have taken Iraq’s oil. It is an assertion that he made a few weeks ago, and one that was roundly criticized at the time. Seizing Iraq’s oil — or the resources of any country — is illegal under international law, and doing so would have likely prompted condemnation from around the world.
特朗普說美國應該拿走伊拉克的石油。他幾周前這樣說過，當時就遭到嚴厲批評。掠奪伊拉克的石油或任何國家的資源都都違反國際法，這樣做可能遭到全世界的譴責。

In purely practical terms, seizing Iraq’s oil would have required tens of thousands of American troops to protect Iraq’s oil infrastructure, which is spread out across the country and largely above ground. It also is probably safe to assume that Iraqis themselves would have objected to their country’s main source of wealth being used to enrich another country.
從純粹實用主義的角度說，拿走伊拉克的石油需要數萬名美國士兵去保護伊拉克的石油基礎設施，這些基礎設施分佈在全國各地，主要在地面。想必伊拉克自己也會反對用國家主要財富資源來肥富他國。
—Matthew Rosenberg

Mr. Trump accused Mrs. Clinton and President Obama of withdrawing troops and leaving a vacuum in Iraq and Syria, which allowed the Islamic State to take root. In fact, Mrs. Clinton advocated arming moderate rebels in Syria and said afterward that Mr. Obama’s refusal to do so may have left a vacuum there. She also privately backed a Pentagon proposal to leave a larger residual force in Iraq than the administration ended up leaving.
特朗普譴責克林頓和奧巴馬總統從伊拉克和敘利亞撤軍，導致權力中空並讓伊斯蘭國生根。事實上，克林頓主張武裝敘利亞的溫和反對派，後來還說奧巴馬拒絕如此導致了真空。她私下支持五角大樓的建議，政府決定撤軍後，在伊拉克留下更多的武裝力量。
—Mark Landler

Mr. Trump was correct in asserting that many NATO countries do not contribute their full share to NATO — a complaint that Mr. Obama and a former secretary of defense, Robert Gates, have also voiced. But he was wrong about NATO failing to fight terrorism. NATO was in Afghanistan starting in 2003 — part of the battle against Al Qaeda.
特朗普說許多北約國家貢獻不足，這是對的，奧巴馬和前防長蓋茨也這麼說。但他說北約未能打擊恐怖主義是不對的，北約自2003年起就出兵阿富汗，打擊基地組織。
—David E. Sanger

Mr. Trump said he opposed the war in Iraq before it began. But during the buildup to the war, he expressed his support in an interview with Howard Stern, according to audio unearthed by BuzzFeed.
特朗普說他在伊拉克戰爭之前就反對這場戰爭。但在備戰期間，他接受Howard Stern的採訪時對此表達支持，BuzzFeed挖出了這段音頻。
—Steve Eder

Mrs. Clinton said the United States needs an “intelligence surge” to help prevent terrorist attacks by homegrown violent extremists, but the United States already collects and shares more intelligence than ever.
克林頓說美國需要“情報浪潮”來避免本土暴力極端分子的恐怖主義攻擊，但美國已經比以往收集和共享了更多的情報。

The F.B.I. has been successful in arresting suspects who are in contact with terrorist figures overseas. The greater challenge for law enforcement today is often that homegrown terrorists commit no crime until an attack.
聯邦調查局成功逮捕了與海外恐怖頭目有聯絡的嫌疑人。當今執法面臨的更大挑戰是本土恐怖分子發起攻擊前沒有犯罪記錄。

And the F.B.I. is not allowed to conduct open-ended investigations without evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Nor is it allowed to collect intelligence solely related to people’s views. Admiring Osama bin Laden or the Islamic State or expressing hatred for the United States is not a crime.
聯邦調查局不允許對沒有前科的人進行無限度調查，也不允許收集純粹屬於人民觀點的情報。仰慕拉登或伊斯蘭國，或者表達憎恨美國，這不是犯罪。
—Matt Apuzzo

Mr. Trump is wrong that the United States is “not updating” its nuclear arsenal. The United States has a major nuclear modernization program underway, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars.
特朗普說錯了，美國沒有“升級”核武庫。美國正在進行核武現代化，耗費數百億美元。

On the Iran nuclear deal, he complained that the United States paid $1.7 billion in cash to Iran. It did. But it was Iran’s money, for military goods never delivered to Iran after the Iranian Revolution. (The principal was $400 million; the remaining $1.3 billion was interest owed in the ensuing three decades.)
關於伊朗核協定，他抱怨美國向伊朗支付了17億美元。但那是伊朗的錢，伊朗革命後，軍事品沒有交貨。本金是4億美元，剩下的13億美元是拖欠30年的利息。
—David E. Sanger

Economy
Mr. Trump said China is “devaluing their currency” to gain an economic advantage. This is an outdated accusation. Countries that hold down the value of their currency can sell goods in other countries more cheaply. And many economists see evidence that China suppressed the value of its currency for years, contributing to its rise as an industrial power.
特朗普說中國“貶值貨幣”獲得經濟優勢，這是過時的指控。壓低貨幣價值的國家可以向他國傾銷貨物，許多經濟學家找到證據表明，中國多年壓低貨幣價值，有利於一個工業強國的崛起。

But in recent years, China has sought to stabilize and even increase the value of its currency, part of a broader shift in its economic policies. There is no evidence that China is presently engaging in currency devaluation.
但近年來，中國尋求穩定甚至升值貨幣，這是其經濟政策的大幅轉變。沒有證據表明，中國目前仍在使貶值貨幣。
—Binyamin Appelbaum

Mr. Trump described a dire situation for the United States’ industrial economy, saying that “Ford is leaving,” referring to the auto giant, and that “thousands of jobs are leaving Michigan, leaving Ohio. They’re all leaving.”
特朗普認爲美國產業經濟處於困境，表明汽車大佬“福特不再了”，“成千上萬崗位離開密歇根、離開俄亥俄，他們都走了。”

Ford is moving its manufacturing of many smaller cars to Mexico, but has said that the move will not result in job losses in the United States.
福特公司把許多小型車工廠搬到墨西哥，但表明此舉不會導致美國工作崗位減少。

Ohio and Michigan have indeed suffered major manufacturing job losses over the past generation. But in the past year, Ohio has gained 78,300 jobs and Michigan has gained 75,800 jobs. In August, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in Michigan and 4.7 percent in Ohio, both in line with the national rate.
俄亥俄和密歇根在過去一代人期間，的確流失了不少製造業崗位。但近年來，俄亥俄新增78300個崗位，密歇根新增75800個。8月，密歇根失業率4.9%，俄亥俄4.7%，都與全國失業率持平。
—Neil Irwin

Mrs. Clinton said that Mr. Trump’s tax plan would increase the federal debt by “over $5 trillion,” and that it would penalize middle-income families.
The conservative Tax Foundation estimates that Mr. Trump’s plan would cost a minimum of $4.4 trillion.
克林頓說特朗普的減稅計劃將使聯邦債務增加“超過5萬億美元”，這會懲罰中等收入家庭。保守的稅收基金會預計，特朗普的計劃最多導致4.4萬億美元債務。

A liberal group, Citizens for Tax Justice, pegs the minimum cost at $4.8 trillion. But the final bill could be significantly greater. Mr. Trump has offered multiple versions of some elements of his plan. A tax break for small businesses, in particular, could add more than $1 trillion to the final bill.
自由主義團體——追求稅務公正的公民，將這一數字設定爲4.8萬億，但最後的賬單將會更多。特朗普的計劃有多個版本，給小企業減稅將讓賬單增加1萬億。

The Trump campaign, however, insists that the final cost will be just $2.6 trillion. This is based on a stripped-down version of Mr. Trump’s plan — one that is inconsistent with his campaign’s public promises. It also assumes that lower tax rates will encourage much stronger economic growth, reducing the cost.
然而，特朗普堅稱最終成本是2.6萬億，這是根據特朗普計劃的瘦身版算出來的，和特朗普競選時的承諾不符。也有人預計低稅率會促進經濟增長，從而降低成本。

Would it hurt the middle class? Mr. Trump’s plan would reduce the average tax burden for low-income, middle-income and upper-income households — but it would not cut everyone’s taxes. Indeed,a new analysis finds roughly 7.8 million families with children would pay higher taxes under Mr. Trump’s plan.
會傷害中產階級嗎？特朗普的計劃將減輕低收入、中等收入和高收入家庭的平均稅負，但不會削減所有人的稅負。最新分析表明，特朗普的計劃中，約780萬有孩子的家庭會支付更多的稅。
—Binyamin Appelbaum

Mr. Trump said that the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, “is the worst trade deal” in American history, and possibly in world history.
特朗普說北美自貿協定是美國曆史上，可能還是世界歷史上，“最差的貿易協定”。

More than 20 years after its passage, NAFTA remains a political lightning rod. But the evidence suggests it wasn’t a big deal in economic terms. Indeed, the Congressional Research Service concluded in 2015 that the “net overall effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively modest.” The reason: Trade with Canada and Mexico comprises a small portion of American economic activity.
協定通過20多年來，北美自貿協定仍然是政治避雷針。但證據顯示就經濟而言，這並非一個體量很大的協定。國會調研機構2015年得出結論，“北美自貿協定對美國經濟的淨影響微不足道。”原因：與加拿大和墨西哥的毛衣只佔美國經濟活動的很小一部分。
—Binyamin Appelbaum

Mr. Trump said that “we have a trade deficit of almost $800 billion a year,” blaming “political hacks” who negotiate trade deals for this.
特朗普說“我們每年有接近8000億美元貿易赤字”，指責談判這一貿易協定的“政治僕從”。

He has the number wrong. The United States trade deficit was about $500 billion in 2015, and is on track for a similar number this year. He is likely referring to the trade deficit in goods, which was $762 billion last year. But that was counteracted by a $262 billion surplus in services.
他記錯了。美國2015年的貿易赤字5000億美元，今年也差不多。他可能說的是貨物貿易逆差，去年達7620億美元，但服務貿易還有順差2620億美元。

In other words, while the United States imports more physical goods than it imports, it exports more services, including things like financial services, tourism, and software.
換言之，美國進口了更多的實物，出口了更多的服務，其中包括金融服務、旅遊和軟件。
—Neil Irwin

Mr. Trump said the Federal Reserve is “doing political things” by holding interest rates at a low level. He charged that the Fed would raise rates as soon as Mr. Obama left office.
特朗普說美聯儲把利率維持在低水平是“玩政治”。他指責說奧巴馬一離職，美聯儲就會加息。

This is a baseless accusation. The Fed has held borrowing costs at historically low levels since the financial crisis to encourage economic growth.
這是毫無證據的指責。美聯儲自金融危機以來，爲了促進經濟增長，將借款成本維持在歷史低位。

Some Fed officials would like to raise rates slightly. Some want to wait a little longer. But Fed officials are uniform in dismissing the idea that politics is playing a role in this debate, and outside experts see no evidence that the Fed is misleading the public.
有些美聯儲官員願意輕微加息，有人希望等等看。但美聯儲官員全都否認這種討論中有政治因素，外界專家也沒發現美聯儲誤導公衆。

In attacking the Fed, Mr. Trump is plowing across a line that presidential candidates and presidents have observed for the last several decades. There has been a bipartisan consensus that central banks operate most effectively when they are shielded from short-term political pressures.
特朗普攻擊美聯儲，越過過去幾十年美國總統候選人和總統都遵循的紅線。兩黨有共識，央行避免遭受短期政治壓力，才能更有效地運行。

Indeed, President Richard M. Nixon’s insistence that the Fed should not raise rates in the early 1970s played a role in unleashing a long era of inflation — and in convincing his successors that it was better to leave the Fed to its technocratic devices.
70年代初，尼克松堅持美聯儲不要加息，這導致長期的通脹，這讓他的繼任者相信，把美聯儲留給技術工具更好。
—Binyamin Appelbaum

Mrs. Clinton said, in defense of her flip-flop on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, that she had “hoped it would be a good deal” but that when it was negotiated, she did not agree with the terms. In fact, Mrs. Clinton spoke out more than 40 times in favor of the trade deal, saying it would be a “strategic initiative that would strengthen the position of the United States in Asia,” without making her support contingent on how it would turn out.
克林頓爲她在TPP一事上反覆無常的立場辯護，她希望“這是個好協定”，但談判時，她不同意其條款。事實上，克林頓超過40次表示支持這一協定，認爲它是“強化美國在亞洲地位的戰略倡議”，從未提到她的支持還要看具體內容如何。

—Mark Landler

Energy and the Environment
Mrs. Clinton accused Mr. Trump of saying that climate change was a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. Mr. Trump responded, “I do not say that.”
But in 2012, Mr. Trump tweeted, “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive.” Over the past year, Mr. Trump has repeatedly called climate change a hoax, and said that he is “not a believer” in the established science of human-caused climate change.
克林頓職責特朗普說氣候變化是中國人的騙局。特朗普說“我沒說過”。但2012年，特朗普發推文說：“全球變暖是中國人制造併爲自己服務的概念，爲了讓美國的製造業失去競爭力”。去年，特朗普反覆稱氣候變化是個騙局，表明“他不相信”主流科學界所言，人類導致氣候變化。
—Coral Davenport

The Candidates
Mrs. Clinton said it was $14 million in loans from Mr. Trump’s father that helped him get his real estate business off the ground. Mr. Trump said it was just a “small” loan.
克林頓說特朗普從父親處獲得1400萬美元的貸款，支撐他在房地產界立足。特朗普說只有“一小部分”貸款。

A recent Wall Street Journal article notes a series of loans and gifts that Mr. Trump received from his father, citing a casino disclosure document from 1985 showing that Mr. Trump owed his father and his father’s company about $14 million.
最近《華爾街日報》文章歷數了特朗普從父親那裏得到的一系列貸款和饋贈，引用1985年賭場披露文件，表明特朗普欠父親和父親的公司約1400萬美元。
—Steve Eder

Mr. Trump said that his Trump International Hotel is next door to the White House. It is certainly nearby, but it is not quite next door — unless you’re flying in a Trump helicopter. Walking from the White House to the hotel takes about 15 minutes, according to Google Maps.
特朗普說他的特朗普國際酒店與白宮挨着。當然離着不遠，但也不是挨着，除非你坐特朗普直升飛機飛過去。谷歌地圖顯示，從白宮走到酒店要15分鐘。

If you grab a taxi or Uber, you can cut that down to about six minutes, though it will probably take a bit longer if you drive yourself — finding a place to park in downtown Washington can be a chore.
如果打車或乘優步，你大概花6分鐘，如果自己開車可能還有久一些，在華盛頓城區找地兒停車挺頭疼的。
—Matthew Rosenberg

In defending himself for raising questions about Mrs. Obama’s birthplace, Mr. Trump said that Mrs. Clinton’s confidant Sidney Blumenthal pushed those questions on a McClatchy reporter when Obama was running for president in 2008.
爲自己質疑奧巴馬出生地做辯護時，特朗普說克林頓的密友Sidney Blumenthal提出了這個問題，當時奧巴馬正在競選總統。

A former McClatchy journalist has said that Mr. Blumenthal encouraged him in 2008 to explore Mr. Obama’s connections to Kenya, including whether he was born there, but Mr. Blumenthal has flatly denied this.
一個記者說Blumenthal在2008年鼓勵他把奧巴馬和肯尼亞聯繫起來，包括他是否出生在那裏，但Blumenthal否認了這一點。
—Megan Twohey

Crime
Mr. Trump objected to Lester Holt’s characterization that “stop-and-frisk,” the New York Police Department practice targeting minority and high-crime areas for searching people, had been found to be unconstitutional racial profiling.
特朗普反對Lester Holt將“攔截搜查”——紐約警局在少數族裔居住和高犯罪區域搜人時的行動——塑造成違反憲法的種族歧視行徑。

Mr. Trump said that the judge who issued that ruling had the case taken away from her, and that New York’s new mayor had opted not to go forward with defending the policy.
特朗普說做出這個裁決的法官不允許負責這個案子了，紐約的新市長選擇不再爲警察辯護。

Both Mr. Holt’s and Mr. Trump’s statements are true. In 2013, a federal judge in New York, Shira A. Scheindlin, struck down the practice as unconstitutional, citing data showing that blacks and Hispanics were being disproportionately stopped. Michael R. Bloomberg, then the mayor, appealed the ruling.
Holt和特朗普說的都對。2013年，紐約聯邦法官indlin認爲該行爲違反憲法，引用數據表明黑人和拉美裔人員被不適當地攔停。當時的市長布隆伯格提出上訴。

Later in 2013, a federal appeals court removed Judge Scheindlin from the case. But then Bill de Blasio became mayor, dropped the litigation and repudiated the policy, mooting the litigation before it could be resolved at a higher level.
2013年末，聯邦上訴法庭不再讓Schindlin負責該案。但白思豪當選市長後，放棄了這起訴訟，譴責這一政策，在該案在更高法院裁決之前擱置了訴訟。
—Charlie Savage

Mr. Trump said that murders are up in New York City. Mrs. Clinton said they are down. Mrs. Clinton is correct. Crime statistics show that murders are down year on year, to 246 from 257.
特朗普說紐約的謀殺率上升，克林頓說下降。克林頓說得對，犯罪統計顯示謀殺率同比下降，從257起下降到246起。
—Steve Eder