對特朗普要觀其行

He was supposed to be leading a revolt against America’s elites. In practice Donald Trump is laying out a banquet for their delectation. The Trump White House is drawing up plans for across-the-board deregulation, tax cuts and a new generation of defence contracts. The only question is at what speed.

他本應領導一場對美國精英的反抗。但實際上，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)正在爲這些精英準備一場饕餮盛宴。特朗普主政的白宮正在爲全面放松管制、減稅和簽訂新一代國防合同制定計劃。唯一的問題在於以多快的速度進行。

In contrast, Mr Trump’s middle-class economic plans, such as they were, are already receding. The chances of a big infrastructure bill are rapidly dimming. In marketing they call this bait and switch. The effect of Mr Trump’s economic agenda will be to deepen the conditions that gave rise to his candidacy.

相比之下，特朗普之前提出的中產階級經濟計劃早已漸漸遠去。出臺大型基礎設施建設法案的可能性正迅速變得渺茫。在市場營銷中，他們將這稱爲“偷樑換柱”。特朗普的經濟議程，將加劇人們當初給他總統候選人資格時原本希望他解決的種種狀況。

The biggest winners will be on Wall Street, in the fossil fuel energy sector and defence. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most influential adviser, last week described the bonfire of regulations as the “deconstruction of the administrative state”. For every new regulation, two will be scrapped. The first clutch will come this week with executive orders undoing Barack Obama’s “clean power plan” that limits carbon dioxide emissions and a separate one on clean water. Anticipation of this has helped to fuel the boom in energy stocks since Mr Trump was elected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more in Mr Trump’s first month than for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

最大的贏家將出現在華爾街、化石燃料能源領域和防務領域。上週，特朗普身邊最有影響力的顧問斯蒂芬?班農(Stephen Bannon)將這場火燒監管規則的“監管篝火”形容爲“對行政國家的解構”。每出臺一條新規，就將有兩條舊規被廢止。本週將打出第一記重拳——特朗普政府將頒佈行政命令，取消巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)時期限制二氧化碳排放的“清潔能源計劃”以及另一項清潔水計劃。自特朗普當選以來，對此的期待已經助推了能源股的上漲。特朗普上任首月，道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)的漲幅比自富蘭克林?羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)以後的任何一任總統上任首月都高。

Financial stocks have also over-performed since the election. Many, if not most, of the protections included in the Dodd-Frank law after the collapse of Lehman Brothers are in Mr Trump’s sights. These include the Volcker rule that restricts banks from speculating with other people’s money, and possibly protections designed to shield the consumer — what Mr Trump called the “forgotten American” — from reckless marketing. Such rules have inhibited Mr Trump’s Wall Street friends from lending money, he said earlier this month.

金融股自特朗普當選以來的表現也相當強勁。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉後通過的《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)中的許多（甚至多數）保護性規定都已是特朗普的眼中釘。其中包括限制銀行利用他人資金進行投機的沃爾克規則(Volcker rule)，以及旨在防止消費者——特朗普口中“被遺忘的美國人”——權益遭不計後果的營銷侵害的保護性規定。特朗普本月早些時候曾表示，這些規定阻礙了他在華爾街的朋友發放貸款。

Elsewhere the open season is well under way. Mr Bannon’s “deconstruction” is already touching most areas of US federal activity. Last week the stocks of private prison companies soared after the Department of Justice scrapped an Obama rule that ended the outsourcing of federal incarceration. They had already jumped after the announcement the Trump administration would detain illegal immigrants in federal centres rather than release them.

其他領域也在大舉放松管制。班農的“解構”已經觸及到美國聯邦政府活動的大多數領域。上週，在美國司法部(Department of Justice)取消奧巴馬時期一項終止聯邦監獄外包的規定後，私營監獄公司的股價一路飆升。在特朗普政府宣佈將在聯邦拘留中心拘留非法移民（而非釋放他們）之後，它們的股價早已大漲。

Likewise, the new head of the Federal Communications Commission has purged key parts of the net neutrality rules put in place to shield consumers from discrimination. The FCC also scrapped plans to open the cable box market to competition. Expect similar field days in the for-profit higher education sector, defence industrial stocks and public housing contractors.

同樣，美國聯邦通信委員會(Federal Communications Commission)新任負責人清除了旨在保護消費者不受歧視的網絡中立規則的關鍵部分。該委員會還取消了有線電視機頂盒市場開放競爭的計劃。預計營利性的高等教育業、防務工業股票及公共住房承包商都將迎來類似的好時光。