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特朗普的支持率其實提高了,但依舊不高

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Donald Trump is more popular than ever before.

特朗普的支持率其實提高了,但依舊不高

唐納德·特朗普比以往更受歡迎了。

Donald Trump is the only president in modern history to never crack 50% job approval in Gallup's weekly tracking poll of how Americans perceive the job that the president is doing.

蓋洛普諮詢公司每週跟蹤調查美國公民對總統工作的支持情況,發現唐納德·特朗普是近代唯一一位支持率從未達到50%的總統。

But in the latest Gallup numbers, Trump is at 46% approval -- the highest mark he has reached in more than two years as President.

但最近一次調查數據顯示特朗普支持率爲46%,這是他擔任總統兩年多以來的最高值了。

Yes, more people still disapprove of the job Trump is doing (50%) than approve of it. And, yes, again, Trump has come close to 46% approval before -- he got to 45% in June 2018 and in January 2017. And, yes, for a third time, there is no meaningful statistical difference between 45% approval and 46% approval.

不支持特朗普工作的人(佔50%)的確比支持的人多,而且特朗普支持率的確曾接近過46%,2018年六月和2017年一月達到過45%,其實45%和46%也沒太大差別。

But, still! This is Donald Trump we are talking about. A man who has struggled for much of his presidency to even win the approval of 40% of Americans for the job he is doing. Just look at Trump's week-by-week performance in Gallup. Not good!

但你要注意我們討論的可是特朗普呀,他甚至爲了獲得美國民衆對其總統工作40%的支持率都已費盡心力了,看看蓋洛普諮詢公司特朗普的每週支持率就知道了,他並不得人心。

What explains Trump's upward trajectory? Likely a series of good economic numbers -- led by 3.2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019. (Worth noting: The Gallup poll was out of the field by April 30, meaning that the gangbusters April jobs report isn't even factored into Trump's numbers.)

特朗普的支持率爲什麼會上升呢?可能是因爲一堆不錯的經濟數據,2019年第一季度GDP增長3.2%。(值得注意的是:蓋洛普諮詢公司的調查截止到4月30日,也就是說4月的光輝戰績對特朗普支持率的影響都還沒算在內呢。)

Dig into the numbers and you see something very interesting. Trump's gains of late are not, as you might expect, from Republicans. Nine in 10 Republicans backed Trump in March, the same number who did so in April. It's among Democrats where Trump's job approval has improved the most month-to-month; just 4% approved of the job he was doing in March compared to 10% who said the same in April. Independents went from 33% job approval for Trump in March to 39% in April.

深入分析這一支持率你會發現一件很有趣的事,特朗普最近獲得的支持率並非如你所想是來自共和黨,3月特朗普在共和黨中的支持率是90%,4月依然如此。對特朗普工作的支持率增幅最大的是民主黨,每月都在提高,3月份有4%的人支持他的工作,4月就上升到10%。3月份他在無黨派人士中的支持率是33%,4月份提高到了39%。

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