奧巴馬對波士頓爆炸案須謹慎行事

In his speech at Boston Cathedral last week, Barack Obama did what a responsible president should do following a terrorist attack: he channelled the public’s reaction. “We do not hunker down,” he said. “We carry on.” It was a carefully judged oration. My colleague Christopher Caldwell even described it as possibly Mr Obama’s “finest hour”. Posterity will be the judge of that. We are still in the early days of the aftermath of Boston.

巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在波士頓聖十字教堂的講話中盡了一名負責任的總統在恐怖襲擊之後應盡之事：他疏導了公衆的反應。他說道：“我們不會趴下。我們將繼續前行。”這是一篇經過慎密拿捏的演說。我的同事克里斯托弗•考德威爾(Christopher Caldwell)甚至稱，這可能是奧巴馬“最輝煌的時刻”。對此後人自有公論。我們仍處於波士頓爆炸案餘波的早期。

Tragedies often crystallise a country’s political mood. On the upside, the Massachusetts police’s success in hunting down the culprits within four days was an extraordinary display of single-mindedness. The ending may have looked like overkill: 2,000 police surrounding a bleeding teenager in a boat. But they secured him alive and that will be invaluable. The same praise is owed to Boston’s first responders and to its public who displayed the kind of calm that makes emergencies manageable. It was one of Boston’s finest hours.

慘劇往往能使一國政治情緒變得清晰。從積極的方面說，麻省警察成功地在4天內緝拿兇手，展現了衆志成城的非凡之處。最後的結局看起來有點小題大做：2000名警察包圍一名躲在一艘遊艇中流血的少年。但他們活捉了他，此舉價值不可估量。波士頓的急救人員乃至公衆也值得獲得同樣的讚譽，他們展現出的沉着使緊急事件沒有失控。這是波士頓最輝煌的時刻之一。

On the negative side, the broader response – and that of much of the media – highlighted the US tendency to overreact to terrorism. Since September 11, US leaders have lulled people into a false sense of security. No more attacks on the homeland, they have been promised. On the one occasion that Mr Obama suggested otherwise – “we can absorb another terrorist attack”, he said in 2010 – he was pilloried for sounding fatalistic.

從消極的方面說，整體的反應——包括相當大部分媒體的反應——凸顯出，美國對恐怖主義往往反應過度。9/11之後，美國領導人讓人們產生錯誤的安全感。他們承諾，美國本土不會再遭到攻擊。有一次奧巴馬提出了不同的說法——2010年他曾說“我們能夠承受另一場恐怖主義襲擊”，結果人們嘲笑他聽上去有些宿命論的意味。

Last week also underlined the US tendency to underreact to other kinds of threat. Three lives were tragically taken last Monday – and a police officer was killed on Thursday. The heartbreaking picture of Martin Richards, the eight-year-old victim, will be the face of what happened in Boston. No less distressing, however, were the 20 mugshots of the six and seven-year-old children who were gunned down in their Newtown classroom last December. In the midst of the Boston crisis last week, the US Senate scuttled the flimsiest attempt to tighten screening of gun buyers. So much for the response to Newtown.

上週還凸顯出，美國對其他威脅往往反應遲鈍。上週一，3條生命悲慘地被奪走，上週四又有一名警官被殺。8歲受害者馬丁•理查茲(Martin Richards)令人心碎的照片將成爲波士頓爆炸案的面孔。然而，去年12月在紐敦鎮教室中被殺的20名6、7歲兒童的照片同樣讓人心痛。上週在波士頓危機期間，美國參議院挫敗了試圖對購槍者加強背景覈查的微薄努力。對紐敦鎮事件的迴應就這樣不了了之。

What will it be to Boston? Mr Obama could perhaps turn it into what he calls a “teachable moment”. In 1995, Bill Clinton converted the tragedy of the Oklahoma City bomb that claimed 168 lives into a political masterstroke. By focusing on the “black helicopter” ravings of Timothy McVeigh, the Oklahoma bomber, Mr Clinton blunted Newt Gingrich’s anti-government momentum in Washington. It was a crucial turning point in his fortunes. After 9/11, George W. Bush pushed through the Patriot Act and almost immediately began preparations for the invasion of Iraq 18 months later. No president before or since has achieved Mr Bush’s stratospheric post-9/11 approval ratings. Yet none had sunk so low by the time he left office.

波士頓爆炸案將產生什麼結果？奧巴馬或許可以使之成爲他所說的“汲取教訓時刻”。1995年，比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)把致168人死亡的俄克拉何馬城爆炸案轉變成了政治上的大手筆。克林頓抓住爆炸案兇手蒂莫西•麥克維(Timothy McVeigh)的“黑色直升機”瘋言瘋語不放，削弱了紐特•金裏奇(Newt Gingrich)在華盛頓掀起的反政府勢頭。這是克林頓命運的關鍵轉折點。9/11以後，喬治•W•布什(George W. Bush)推動通過了《愛國者法案》(Patriot Act)，並幾乎立即開始爲18個月後的入侵伊拉克做準備。9/11之後，布什的支持率之高，超過了歷來任何一位總統，連奧巴馬也從未超越。（不過，布什離任時支持率之低，也創下紀錄。）

Last week’s Boston bombs were nothing like the scale of the Oklahoma or Twin Towers attacks. But to judge from the reaction so far, 4/15 will be a big date on the US political calendar. It was the first homegrown terrorist attack since 9/11. Mr Obama faces two challenges in the coming weeks. The first will be to fight attempts to use Boston to tarnish immigration reform, which is his most realistic shot at a big change in the next two years. A bipartisan group of eight senators last week came up with a draft bill that would provide a “pathway to citizenship” for the country’s 11m illegal immigrants.

上週的波士頓爆炸案比不上俄克拉荷馬或者9/11襲擊的規模。但從迄今的反應來看，4/15將成爲美國政治日程上重要的一天。這是自9/11以後首例本土滋生的恐怖主義襲擊。未來數週，奧巴馬面臨兩項挑戰。第一項是，打擊試圖利用波士頓爆炸案來詆譭移民改革的行爲，而移民政策改革是他在未來兩年做成大事的最現實機會。8名參議員組成的兩黨小組上週拿出一份法案草案，將爲美國1100萬非法移民提供“成爲公民之路”。

It did not take long for Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa and an opponent, to link the bill to the Tsarnaev brothers’ refugee origins. The fact that Marco Rubio, the Florida Tea Party icon who is in the Senate “Group of Eight”, felt the need to disavow any link was worrying. If the bill’s opponents can staple “amnesty” to “terrorism” it may yet go awry. Both the Tsarnaev brothers entered the US legally and became naturalised citizens. On news of Tamerlan’s death, Ann Coulter, the conservative commentator, tweeted: “It is too bad Suspect No.1 won’t be legalised by Marco Rubio now.”

來自衣阿華州的參議員、反對人士查克•格拉斯利(Chuck Grassley)很快就把這項法案與察爾納耶夫(Tsarnaev)兄弟的難民背景聯繫在一起。佛羅里達州茶黨偶像、參議院“8人小組”成員之一的馬可•魯比奧(Marco Rubio)認爲有必要與該法案撇清關係，這讓人憂心。如果法案的反對者能夠在“恐怖主義”上烙上“大赦”字樣，該法案仍可能夭折。察爾納耶夫兄弟都是合法進入美國的，弟弟已歸化成爲美國公民。在哥哥塔梅爾蘭被擊斃後，保守派評論員安•庫爾特(Ann Coulter)在Twitter上發帖稱：“1號嫌疑犯如今不會被馬可•魯比奧合法化了，這可真是糟糕至極。”

Mr Obama’s second challenge will be to ensure an appropriate security response to Boston. The hospitalised Dzhokhar Tsarnaev has yet to be formally interrogated. But the chances are that he and his brother were largely acting on their own initiative. As the Spanish and British can attest since the Madrid and London attacks of 2004 and 2005, homegrown terrorism is tougher to anticipate than plots from outside. The amateurism of last week’s bombs underscores how successful the US has been in preventing organised outside attacks since 9/11. Stepping up the search for potential lone wolves within presents a very different type of headache. It will require sensitivity.

奧巴馬的第二項挑戰將是確保對波士頓爆炸案做出恰當的安保迴應。正在醫院接受救治的焦哈爾•察爾納耶夫(Dzhokhar Tsarnaev)目前還沒有正式接受審訊。但他和哥哥很可能基本上是自發實施了這一爆炸案。正如自2004年和2005年馬德里和倫敦爆炸案以來西班牙和英國能夠證實的那樣，國內恐怖主義比來自境外的陰謀更難防範。上週實施波士頓爆炸案炸彈的不專業，突顯出自9/11以來美國在防範有組織的外來攻擊方面有多麼成功。加強對國內潛在“獨狼”的偵查是一個非常不同的棘手問題。它需要敏感度。

Mr Obama’s most immediate task will be to defend the decision to give the surviving brother legal rights as a US citizen rather than treat him as an enemy combatant. The distinction might sound arcane at a moment such as this. But it would be a terrible precedent to reverse when suspicion about US Muslims is likely to be on the rise.

奧巴馬最緊迫的任務將是爲這一決定辯護：給予這個倖存下來的弟弟作爲美國公民的法律權利，而不是把他定性爲敵方戰鬥人員(enemy combatant)。在這種時候，這一區別聽上去可能有點學究氣。但在對美國穆斯林的猜疑可能加劇之際，“敵方戰鬥人員”將確立一個很難逆轉的可怕先例。

So far Mr Obama has responded to the Boston attacks with balance and proportion. It is not hard to imagine how much higher the temperature would be were a different president in office. Mr Obama, more than anyone, will be aware of how fragile the mood can be.

迄今奧巴馬對於波士頓爆炸案的迴應還算適度。我們不難想象，如果在任的是另外一位總統的話，反應會有多麼強烈。但奧巴馬比任何人都清楚，民衆的情緒有多麼脆弱。

On Friday one of America’s largest cities awoke to something approaching martial law. It is unnerving to imagine what a bigger crisis might have entailed.

上週五，美國最大城市之一的人們一覺醒來，發現全城近乎全面戒嚴。想象一下比這更大的危機可能意味着什麼，令人不安。