美國經濟硬數據顯示不祥預兆

If you utter the words “hard versus soft” in Washington policy circles, it usually signals the start of an earnest foreign policy debate. Not right now, however.

如果你在華盛頓政策圈提到“硬、軟”的問題，它通常標誌着一場激烈外交政策辯論的開端。不過不是現在。

For as the presidency of Donald Trump approaches its 100-day milestone, a mystery is opening up around the US economy about what the “soft” and “hard” economic signals mean. This is a debate that investors urgently need to watch — not to mention policymakers too.

原因是在唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上任近100天之際，圍繞美國經濟出現了一個謎團，焦點問題是“軟”、“硬”經濟信號意味着什麼。這是一場投資者亟需關注的辯論，更別提政策制定者了。

The issue at stake is that if you look at recent so-called soft economic signals — those linked to sentiment — Mr Trump seems to be enjoying extraordinary success. Since he won the election, business confidence has surged: the National Federation of Independent Business survey reached its highest level in January since 2004, while the Business Roundtable CEO economic outlook survey displayed the biggest jump in the first quarter of the year since 2009.

問題是這樣的：如果你看看近期的所謂“軟”經濟信號（與情緒掛鉤的經濟信號），特朗普似乎獲得了極大的成功。自他贏得選舉以來，企業信心飆升：全美獨立企業聯盟(National Federation of Independent Businesses, NFIB)的調查結果顯示，今年1月信心指數達到自2004年以來的最高水平，同時商業圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)的調查結果顯示，今年第一季度首席執行官們對前景的樂觀情緒出現自2009年以來最大幅度的飆升。

More remarkably still, consumer sentiment jumped to a 17-year high last month in the University of Michigan’s survey. That, coupled with a fall in unemployment to 4.5 per cent and rising wages, has prompted consumers to borrow more: credit card debt rose above $1tn for the first time since 2008 in April.

更引人注目的是，密歇根大學(University of Michigan)的調查顯示，上月消費者情緒飆升至17年來的最高點，再加上失業率降至4.5%以及薪資上漲，消費者開始加大借款：4月信用卡債務自2008年以來首次升至1萬億美元以上。

But if you look at most “hard” data — statistics about tangible economic activity — Mr Trump’s presidency does not seem a success. Last month manufacturing activity dropped for the first time in seven months, along with housing starts. Retail spending fell 0.2 per cent in March, the second month of decline, while consumer prices unexpectedly slid. Corporate investment has remained flat.

但如果你看看多數“硬”數據（有形經濟活動的統計數據），特朗普的總統任期似乎算不上成功。上月，製造業活動指數出現7個月以來的首次下降，新屋開工數同樣如此。3月零售支出下降0.2%，這是該數據連續第二個月下降，同時消費者價格指數意外走低。企業投資依然沒有起色。

As a result, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “Gross Domestic Product Now” indicator, which is a composite of hard data, suggests the economy grew just 0.5 per cent in the first three months of 2017. This is slower than last year. It is also well below the 4 per cent growth rate that Mr Trump promised to deliver on the election trail.

其結果是，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行(Atlanta Federal Reserve)的“當前國內生產總值”指標（一個硬數據的綜合指標）似乎表明，2017年頭3個月美國經濟僅增長了0.5%。這低於去年。它也遠低於特朗普在競選期間承諾的4%的增速。

So what explains this split? The optimistic explanation is that this is merely a time lag effect. Hard economic signals tend to be backward-looking, since these capture activity that has already occurred, after a delay; soft data, by contrast, are about future expectations. So if you want to be upbeat — as many investors seem determined to be — you can argue (or hope) that this upturn in sentiment will eventually spark more tangible economic growth, as Mr Trump’s policy measures bite. It is also possible that the downbeat GDP data will eventually be revised up, since the statistics tend to be unreliable in winter, because of seasonal effects.

那麼如何解釋這種差異？樂觀的解釋是，這只是時間滯後效應。硬經濟信號往往滯後，因爲這些信號捕捉的是已經發生的活動，有所延遲；相比之下，軟數據是關於未來的預期。因此，如果你想要樂觀——許多投資者似乎決心保持樂觀——你就可以辯稱（或者說希望），隨着特朗普的政策舉措產生效果，情緒的改善最終將引發更多的有形經濟增長。還有一種可能是，低迷的GDP數據最終將被向上修正，因爲由於季節影響，冬季的統計數據往往不可靠。

But there is a second, more pessimistic, theory: namely that it is actually the hard data that tell the more accurate tale. The recent surge in sentiment has been largely sparked by hopes that the Trump presidency will deliver tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure investment.

但第二種更爲悲觀的理論是，其實硬數據才表明了更爲真實的實情。最近情緒飆升在很大程度上是以下希望引發的，即特朗普政府將會推行稅收改革、放鬆監管並進行基礎設施投資。

However, as Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, acknowledged to the FT this week, tax reforms have been delayed — at least “a bit” — by the Congressional spat over healthcare.

然而，正如美國財長史蒂文?姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)近日向英國《金融時報》承認的那樣，由於國會圍繞醫保問題爆發爭吵，稅收改革已被延遲——至少是推後“一點兒”。

And though Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, is creating plans to roll back many of the estimated 7,000-odd regulations imposed during the Obama years, it is unclear how quickly this will occur. Similarly, nobody knows how fast the White House will implement the ambitious infrastructure plans being drawn up by Gary Cohn, chief economic adviser.

同時，儘管美國商務部長威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)正在制定計劃，廢止奧巴馬政府時期出臺的估計7000來項法規中的很多規定，但尚不清楚這項工作能夠多快完成。同樣，沒有人知道白宮將多快實施由其首席經濟顧問加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)起草的雄心勃勃的基建計劃。

That means there is a real risk that sentiment will decline in the coming months, closing that puzzling gap between hard and soft data. If so, Mr Trump’s economic “success” will seem like just a temporary sugar high; or so the second explanation goes.

這意味着，存在今後幾個月情緒回落的切實風險，從而消除硬數據和軟數據之間令人困惑的差異。若果真如此，特朗普的經濟“成功”看上去將只是暫時的“糖亢奮”(sugar high，指攝入大量糖後短時間內出現的亢奮狀態——譯者注)；至少按照第二種解釋會是這樣。

So which of these two theories is correct? Sadly, I suspect — or fear — that the second is more likely to play out. For unless Mr Ross produces a startling set of deregulation manoeuvres in the coming months, or Congress rallies around a tangible tax reform plan, it is hard to see why growth should accelerate to 4 per cent anytime soon. Indeed, the only real reason for optimism about economic activity — outside that sentiment boost — is the upturn in employment and earnings numbers.

那麼這兩種理論哪種是正確的？遺憾的是，我懷疑（或者說擔心）第二種解釋可能更爲靠譜。原因是，除非羅斯在今後幾個月拿出一系列令人吃驚的去監管舉措，或者國會同意一套切實的稅收改革計劃，否則很難看出增長怎麼能很快加速至4%。的確，對經濟活動感到樂觀（除了情緒提振外）的唯一切實理由是就業和收入出現起色。

But the one thing that is crystal clear is that investors do not appear particularly worried about this soft/hard split yet — the stock market remains sky high. Those investors had better just hope that this “mind over matter” pattern can continue for a while and that Mr Trump is able to deliver real policy reform. If not, disappointment looms.

但是有一件事很明顯，投資者似乎並不特別擔心這種軟數據和硬數據之間的差異——股市依然高漲。那些投資者最好希望，這種“精神勝過物質”的模式能夠持續一段時間，而且特朗普能夠拿出真正的政策改革。若非如此，失望情緒將逐漸佔上風。