詳解加州中期選舉:華裔參選州長
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最新消息Last updated: May 28, 2018
最後更新：2018年5月28日Who is going to win? That’s the question a reporter covering politics is bound to hear at dinner parties and gatherings of friends and family in an election year.
誰會贏？在選舉年，這是政治新聞記者肯定會在晚宴和親友聚會上聽到的問題。
That has certainly been the case this year in California, which — after years of being relegated to the sidelines during national campaigns — has found itself at the heart of the Democratic battle to take control of Congress. Then there’s the fight to replace Gov. Jerry Brown, who is retiring, and the challenge from the left to Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is not.
今年，在加利福尼亞州肯定也是這樣。長年在全國選舉中淪爲邊緣後，加州發現自己處在民主黨爭奪國會控制權鬥爭的核心。然後是對即將退休的州長傑裏·布朗(Jerry Brown)接替者的爭奪，以及左翼對非左翼參議員黛安·范斯坦(Dianne Feinstein)發起的挑戰。I have covered national politics for more years than I will admit to — let’s just say I have observed more than one “Jerry Brown for president” campaign — and as a rule, I avoid the who-is-going-to-win question. (Indeed, the one time I broke my no predictions rule was in the presidential election of 2016. Let’s just leave it at that.)
我報道全國政治新聞的年頭超出了自己能容忍的極限。這麼說吧，我不止一次目睹“傑裏·布朗競選總統”的呼聲。我給自己定的規矩是，避開“誰會贏”這個問題。（實際上，我唯一一次打破不做預測的規矩是在2016年總統選舉期間。這個話題就說到這吧。)Still, this period in California politics is as fraught and interesting as any since Arnold Schwarzenegger moved from Hollywood to Sacramento and became governor in a wild recall election. Interest is about as high as it ever gets in California for a nonpresidential election.
儘管如此，在加州政壇，這個時期令人擔憂和有趣的程度堪比阿諾德·施瓦辛格(Arnold Schwarzenegger)從好萊塢搬到薩克拉門託，並在一次瘋狂的罷免選舉中當選州長以來的任何一個時期。就非總統選舉而言，加州人的興趣幾乎達到了有史以來的最高點。It’s a little confusing — eight congressional races and a few dozen candidates. And the day to go to the polls is closer than you might think: A nonpartisan, open primary on June 5 will determine the lineup for the November ballot — and we will know a lot that night about Democratic hopes for posting the big gains they need on the West Coast. (A big reason for that is the unusual system California has for choosing candidates. You can read about it here.)
情況有點令人費解——八個國會選舉和幾十個候選人。並且現在距離投票日期近得超乎你想象：6月5日的無黨派公開初選將決定誰會出現在11月的選票上。此外，關於民主黨是否能在西海岸獲得所需的大收穫，我們可以在當晚瞭解到大量信息。（造成這種情況的一大原因是加州與衆不同的候選人選擇制度。可點擊此處進一步瞭解。）We are here to help. Below are state-of-play cards in races for Senate, governor and eight House seats, a handy glimpse at the candidates, districts and issues. We will be updating this throughout the week.
我們來給你幫個忙。下面是參議院、州長和八個衆議院席位的競選現狀，簡單介紹了候選人、選區和問題。我們整週都會持續更新。[Read our related coverage including a midterm calendar, Senate previewand House preview.]
[歡迎閱讀相關報道，包括中期選舉安排、參議院情況概述和衆議院情況概述。]Top Races to Watch
最值得關注的競選Governor
州長Incumbent: None. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, is retiring.
現任：無。民主黨人傑裏·布朗即將退休。The contenders: The main Democrats are Gavin Newsom, the lieutenant governor and a former mayor of San Francisco; Antonio Villaraigosa, a former mayor of Los Angeles; John Chiang, the state treasurer; and Delaine Eastin, the former superintendent of public education. The two main Republicans are John Cox, a business executive endorsed by President Trump, and Travis Allen, a State Assembly member.
競爭者：主要的民主黨角逐者是曾任舊金山市市長的副州長加文·紐瑟姆(Gavin Newsom)、前洛杉磯市市長安東尼奧·維拉萊戈薩(Antonio Villaraigosa)、州財政負責人江俊輝(John Chiang)和前公共教育負責人德萊納·伊斯汀(Delaine Eastin)。兩名主要的共和黨人選分別是得到特朗普總統支持的商界高管約翰·考克斯(John Cox)和州議員特拉維斯·艾倫(Travis Allen)。How tough a race? By most measures — think money and poll numbers — Mr. Newsom is a clear front-runner going into the June 5 vote. The big question is whether this turns into a two-person race with Mr. Villaraigosa, a well-known figure in Southern California who could draw significant financial support. Mr. Newsom is doing what he can to make sure that it does not, running ads intended to boost the prospects of Mr. Cox. (In promoting Mr. Cox, Mr. Newsom finds himself in an unusual alliance with Mr. Trump.)
競爭激烈程度：從資金和民調數字等大部分衡量標準來看，紐瑟姆會在6月5日的投票中領先。一大問題是，這會不會變成他與維拉萊戈薩兩人之間的競爭。後者是南加州的名人，能夠獲得大量財務支持。紐瑟姆正在盡其所能地確保不出現這一幕，投放意在增加考克斯勝機的廣告。（在宣傳考克斯這件事上，紐瑟姆發現自己與特朗普處在同一個不尋常的陣線之中。）Big question: Will Mr. Cox make it to the November ballot against Mr. Newsom? If he does, the race pretty much ends when the votes are counted next Tuesday; California is overwhelmingly Democratic and Mr. Cox’s alliance with Mr. Trump — if valuable in a primary to win over Republican voters — won’t be particularly helpful in a general election. If Mr. Villaraigosa squeaks in to get a spot on the ballot, California is in for an interesting race.
一大問題：考克斯會出現在11月的選票上，和紐瑟姆展開角逐嗎？如果會，那麼下週二清點選票時，這場競選基本上就結束了。加州大部分人支持民主黨，考克斯與特朗普的聯盟即使在初選中對爭取共和黨選民很有幫助，也不會在大選中特別有用。如果維拉萊戈薩能夠擠進去，在選票上獲得一席之地，加州即將迎來一場有趣的大戰。U.S. Senate
國會參議院Incumbent: Senator Dianne Feinstein
現任：黛安·范斯坦參議員Résumé: Seeking a sixth term, Ms. Feinstein, 84, is an institution in California politics. She is a former San Francisco mayor, a member of the Board of Supervisors, and one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington.
簡歷：正在謀求第六屆任期的范斯坦現年84歲，在加州政壇大名鼎鼎。她曾擔任舊金山市市長，是監督委員會(Board of Supervisors)的委員，也是華盛頓影響力最大的民主黨人之一。Main opponents: Kevin de León, the former Democratic leader of the State Senate. Are there any Republicans? Yes. But it does not appear that any of them will make it through the June primary to win a spot on the November ballot. We will let you know over the next week if it looks like that might change. Watch this space.
主要對手：曾擔任州參議院民主黨領袖的凱文·德·萊昂(Kevin de León)。有共和黨的嗎？有。但似乎他們之中沒人能通過6月的初選，出現在11月的選票上。如果情況有變，我們會在下週讓大家知道。敬請關注。How tough a race? Not particularly tough at all. Ms. Feinstein is far ahead of Mr. de León in most polls and in fund-raising.
競爭激烈程度：不是特別激烈。在大部分民調和資金募集方面，范斯坦遠遠領先於德·萊昂。Big question: Mr. de León began his campaign on the hope that a wave of Democratic activism — and a sense that Ms. Feinstein is too moderate and has been around for too long — would translate into a surge of support for a newcomer. Might that happen in a two-person general election?
一大問題：德萊昂開啓自己的競選活動是基於這樣一種希望：民主派的活動浪潮——以及范斯坦太過溫和、在位太久的感覺——會導致對新來者的支持激增。這種情況會發生在兩人的普選中嗎？[Dianne Feinstein is a California fixture. Unseating her is an uphill challenge.]
[黛安娜·范斯坦是加州的元老級人物。取代她是一項艱鉅的挑戰。]Congressional District 10: Central Valley
國會第10區：中央谷地Incumbent: Representative Jeff Denham
現任：衆議員傑夫·德納姆(Jeff Denham)Résumé: Seeking a fourth term, Mr. Denham is a Republican former state senator and an Air Force veteran who served in Operation Desert Storm.
簡歷：德納姆在尋求第四個任期，他是共和黨前州參議員，也是一名空軍老兵，曾參與沙漠風暴行動(Operation Desert Storm)。Main opponents: Michael Eggman, a farmer making his third run against Mr. Denham; Josh Harder, a venture capitalist; and Virginia Madue?o, a public relations executive.
競爭者：邁克爾·艾格曼(Michael Eggman)，一名農民，他是第三次挑戰德納姆；喬希·哈德(Josh Harder)，一位風險投資者；以及弗吉尼婭·馬杜埃尼奧(Virginia Madue?o)，一位公共關係主管。How tough a race? Mr. Denham defeated Mr. Eggman in 2016 with 51.7 percent of the vote.
競爭激烈程度：2016年，德納姆以51.7%的得票率擊敗了艾格曼。2016 results: Hillary Clinton won this district with 48 percent of the vote.
2016年的選舉結果：希拉里·克林頓以48%的得票率贏得了該選區。Big question: Can Democrats drive up the Latino vote in this Central Valley district?
一大問題：民主黨能爭取到中央谷地拉丁裔的更多選票嗎？Congressional District 21: Central Valley
國會第21區：中央谷地Incumbent: Representative David Valadao
現任：衆議員戴維·瓦拉達奧(David Valadao)Résumé: Mr. Valadao, a rancher and former assemblyman, was elected in 2012.
簡歷：瓦拉達奧是一名牧場主，2012年當選國會衆議員。Main opponent: T.J. Cox, a businessman.
主要對手：商人T·J·考克斯(T.J. Cox)How tough a race? He won re-election with nearly 57 percent of the vote.
競爭激烈程度：他以近57%的選票贏得連任。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton thumped Mr. Trump with 55 percent of the vote.
2016年的競選結果：克林頓獲得55%的選票，擊敗特朗普。Big question: Is the Trump drag big enough to pull down a Republican who otherwise should not have a difficult race, particularly against an opponent who doesn’t live in the district?
一大問題：特朗普的拖累是否足以讓一名共和黨候選人落選？他的競選本應不難，尤其是對手並不住在這個選區。[Read more about this district and others in farming communities.]
[歡迎閱讀更多有關這個選取和其他農業地區選區的報道。]Congressional District 25: Los Angeles County
國會第25區：洛杉磯縣。Incumbent: Representative Steve Knight
現任：衆議員史蒂夫·奈特(Steve Knight)Résumé: He was elected in 2014. Mr. Knight, a Republican, has served in the State Senate, the State Assembly and the Palmdale City Council.
簡歷：奈特是一名共和黨，2014年當選，曾在州參議院、州議會和帕姆代爾市議會任職。Main opponents: Bryan Caforio, a Los Angeles lawyer who challenged him in 2016; Katie Hill, the head of a nonprofit helping homeless people; and Jess Phoenix, a volcanologist.
主要對手：曾在2016年向他發起挑戰的洛杉磯律師布萊恩·卡福里奧(Bryan Caforio)、一個幫助無家可歸者的非營利組織負責人凱蒂·希爾( Katie Hill)和火山學專家傑斯·菲尼克斯(Jess Phoenix)。How tough a race? He beat Mr. Caforio with 53 percent of the vote in 2016.
競爭激烈程度：2016年，他以53%的得票率擊敗卡福里奧。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won this district with 50 percent of the vote.
2016年的選舉結果：克林頓以50%的選票拿下這個選區。Big question: Will Democrats end up with the person whom Party strategists consider their strongest prospect in the November campaign after the multicandidate June 5 contest? In the field, Mr. Caforio or Ms. Hill are the most likely to end up the Democratic challenger to Mr. Knight; Ms. Hill is viewed as the stronger candidate.
一大問題：6月5日的差額選舉結束後，民主黨最後會出現一個黨內策略師認爲最有望在11月的選舉中獲勝的人嗎？角逐者中，卡福里奧或希爾最有可能成爲與奈特對決的民主黨人。希爾被認爲實力更強。Congressional District 39: Orange County
國會第39區：奧蘭治縣Incumbent: Open. Representative Ed Royce, a Republican, is not seeking re-election
現任：空缺。共和黨衆議員埃德·羅伊斯(Ed Royce)不謀求連任。Top candidates: An open seat means there are Republicans and Democrats on the ballot. Republicans include Bob Huff, a former minority leader of the State Senate; Shawn Nelson, an Orange County supervisor; and Young Kim, a former member of the Assembly. Democrats include Gil Cisneros, a wealthy philanthropist, and Mai Khanh Tran, a pediatrician.
最有希望的候選人：席位空缺意味着選票上既有共和黨人，也有民主黨人。共和黨人包括前州參議院少數黨領袖鮑勃·赫夫( Bob Huff)、奧蘭治縣監督委員肖恩·納爾遜(Shawn Nelson)和年輕的前州議員揚·金(Young Kim)。民主黨人包括富甲一方的慈善家吉爾·西斯內羅斯(Gil Cisneros)和兒科醫生馬伊·汗·德蘭(Mai Khanh Tran)。How tough a race? It’s probably tougher for Republicans without Mr. Royce, particularly if Mr. Cisneros gets on the ballot — he has the money to wage a strong campaign.
競爭激烈程度：沒了羅伊斯，對共和黨來說可能更難，西斯內羅斯出現在選票上的話尤其如此。他擁有發起一場勢頭強勁的競選活動的資金。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won 51 percent of the vote.
2016年的選舉結果：克林頓獲得51%的選票。Big question: This is another one where California’s open primary system could prove decisive. Will the large field of Democrats allow Republicans to capture the top two positions and lock out Democrats from the November ballot?
一大問題：這場選舉會再次表明，加州的公開初選制度可能會起決定性的作用。規模龐大的民主黨候選人會允許共和黨佔據前兩名的位置，將民主黨排除在11月的選票之外嗎？Congressional District 45: Orange County
國會第45區：奧蘭治縣Incumbent: Representative Mimi Walters
現任：衆議員米米·沃爾特斯(Mimi Walters)Résumé: A Republican, she was elected to Congress in 2014, coming up from the California Assembly and Senate. She is a former investment banker.
簡歷：共和黨人，她於2014年當選爲國會議員，之前任職於加州衆議會和參議院。她曾是投資銀行從業者。Main opponents: Katie Porter, a consumer advocacy lawyer and professor at the University of California, Irvine; Dave Min, a law professor at U.C., Irvine; and Brian Forde, who worked as a science adviser in the Obama White House.
競爭者：消費者維權律師、加州大學歐文分校(University of California, Irvine)教授凱蒂·波特(Katie Porter)；加州大學歐文分校法學教授戴夫·米恩(Dave Min)；以及曾擔任奧巴馬政府科學顧問的布賴恩·福德(Brian Forde)。How tough a race? She won in 2016 with 58 percent of the vote.
競爭激烈程度：沃爾特斯在2016年贏得了58%的選票。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won with 49.8 percent of the vote.
2016年的選舉結果：克林頓以49.8%的得票率贏得了該區。Big question: A good district to watch how the health care issue plays out: Ms. Walters voted to repeal Obamacare in favor of Trumpcare, and Democrats are using it as an issue against her.
一大問題：在這個區可以很好地觀察醫保法案產生的影響：沃爾特斯投票廢除奧巴馬醫改法案，支持特朗普醫改法案，民主黨人在利用這個問題打擊她。Congressional District 48: Orange County
國會第48區：奧蘭治縣Incumbent: Representative Dana Rohrabacher
現任：衆議員達納·羅拉巴克爾(Dana Rohrabacher)Résumé: An Orange County institution, the Republican has been in Congress since 1989.
簡歷：這位共和黨人是奧蘭治縣的知名人物，自1989年以來一直在國會任職。Main opponents: Mr. Rohrabacher has drawn a Republican challenger, Scott Baugh. Two Democrats are Harley Rouda, a businessman, and Hans Keirstead, a biomedical researcher.
主要對手：羅拉巴克爾有一位共和黨挑戰者——斯科特·鮑(Scott Baugh)。他的兩位民主黨對手分別是商人哈利·容達(Harley Rouda)和生物醫學研究者漢斯·基爾斯特德(Hans Keirstead)。How tough a race? Presumably quite tough. Mr. Rohrabacher is very close to Mr. Trump, and there have been a series of reports tying him to Russia and Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder.
競爭激烈程度：很可能會非常激烈。羅拉巴克爾與特朗普關係非常密切，有一系列報道將他與俄羅斯以及維基解密創始人朱利安·阿桑奇(Julian Assange)聯繫在一起。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won with 48 percent of the vote.
2016年的選舉結果：克林頓贏得了該區48%的選票。Big question: Will this race — which had been a top target for Democrats — slip away because of California’s top-two primary system? Mr. Baugh, a former Orange County Republican leader, is running a very strong campaign and this could end up being a Rohrabacher-Baugh race in November.
一大問題：贏得這個席位是民主黨的首要目標，他們會因爲加州的前兩大初選體系而受挫嗎？鮑曾是奧蘭治縣的共和黨領袖，正在進行聲勢浩大的競選活動，可能會導致11月的競選變成“羅拉巴克爾與鮑”之間的競爭。Congressional District 49: Orange and San Diego Counties
國會第49區：奧蘭治縣和聖迭戈縣Incumbent: Open. Representative Darrell Issa, a Republican, is not seeking re-election.
現任：無。共和黨衆議員達雷爾·伊薩(Darrell Issa)不尋求連任。Main opponents: An open seat means there are Republicans and Democrats on the ballot. The Democrats include Doug Applegate, a Marine veteran who ran against Mr. Issa last time; Sara Jacobs, a former foreign policy adviser for Mrs. Clinton’s 2016 campaign and the granddaughter of the co-founder of Qualcomm; Paul Kerr, a businessman; and Mike Levin, an environmental lawyer. The Republicans include Rocky Chávez, a State Assembly member, and Diane Harkey, a member of the Board of Equalization.
競爭者：職位空缺意味着選票上既有共和黨人，也有民主黨人。民主黨人包括道格·阿普爾蓋特(Doug Applegate)，他是一名海軍陸戰隊老兵，上次曾和伊薩交手；薩拉·雅各布(Sara Jacobs)，她是克林頓2016年競選團隊的外交政策顧問，也是高通(Qualcomm)一位聯合創始人的孫女；商人保羅·克爾(Paul Kerr)；以及環保律師邁克·萊文(Mike Levin)。共和黨競選者包括加州衆議院成員羅基·查韋斯(Rocky Chávez)以及加州公平委員會(Board of Equalization)成員黛安·哈基(Diane Harkey)。How tough a race? This was a big Democratic target when the always controversial Mr. Issa was on the ballot (he won by 1,700 votes in 2016). His decision to step aside has made it tougher for Democrats.
競爭激烈程度：去年，一向充滿爭議的伊薩在候選人之列時，贏得這個席位曾是民主黨的重大目標（伊薩在2016年以1700張選票獲勝）。他辭職的決定使得民主黨的處境更加艱難。2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won here with 50.7 percent.
2016年的選舉結果：克林頓以50.7%的得票率獲勝。Big question: This is another district where Democrats have a crowded field and are in danger of getting shut out of the November election.
一大問題：這是另一個擁有衆多民主黨人，但他們有可能被排除在11月的選舉之外的地方。Congressional District 50: San Diego County
國會第50區：聖迭戈縣Incumbent: Representative Duncan Hunter
現任：衆議員鄧肯·亨特(Duncan Hunter)Résumé: Elected in 2008.
簡歷：2008年當選Main opponents: His Democratic challengers include Josh Butner, a former Navy SEAL officer, and Ammar Campa-Najjar, who was a fellow in the Obama White House.
主要對手：他的民主黨對手包括前海軍海豹突擊隊(Navy SEAL)軍官喬希·巴特納(Josh Butner)，以及前奧巴馬白宮成員阿馬爾·坎帕·納賈爾(Ammar Campa-Najjar)。How tough a race? Mr. Hunter is facing an investigation for the improper use of campaign funds, putting an otherwise safe Republican seat in play. The San Diego Union-Tribune weighed in with an editorial the other day under this headline: “50th District: Anyone but Duncan Hunter.”
競選激烈程度：亨特正在接受不當使用競選資金的調查，共和黨的這個原本安全的席位也受到了挑戰。幾天前，《聖迭戈聯合論壇報》(The San Diego Union-Tribune)加入論戰，發表了一篇文章，標題是《第50區：除了鄧肯·亨特，誰都可以》。
2016 results: Mr. Trump drew 54.6 percent of the vote here.
2016年的選舉結果：特朗普獲得了該區54.6%的選票。Big question: Will corruption allegations hovering over this campaign, along with the problems the Republican Party is experiencing in California, give Democrats a chance at capturing this seat? And will Mr. Hunter be indicted, giving Republicans an opportunity to put a stronger candidate on the ballot this November?
一大問題：籠罩本次競選的腐敗指控，以及共和黨在加州遇到的問題，會給民主黨一個贏得該席位的機會嗎？亨特會被起訴嗎？會因此讓共和黨有機會在11月的選舉中派出一位更有力的候選人嗎？
