多重因素改變亞洲國家增長排名

Shifting trade patterns, cheaper oil and a slowing Chinese economy are helping to shake up the league table of Asian growth, with the Philippines and Vietnam joining India as the region’s pacesetters, and Indonesia and Thailand falling to the bottom of the class.

貿易模式轉變、油價下跌和中國經濟增長放緩等因素改變了亞洲的增長排名，菲律賓和越南與印度一起成爲該地區的排頭兵，而印尼和泰國墊底。

Although the World Bank expects China to remain Asia’s fastest-growing economy until 2017, many private sector analysts believe India will outpace its neighbour as soon as this year.

儘管世界銀行(World Bank)預計中國在2017年前依然是亞洲增長最快的經濟體，但許多私人部門分析師相信，印度經濟增速最早將在今年超過中國。

Lower oil prices have given the Reserve Bank of India greater freedom to cut interest rates and lessened the threat posed by the country’s stubborn current account deficit. There is also hope that the pro-business government of Narendra Modi will be able to unlock India’s economic potential, just as China’s multi-decade boom begins to fade.

油價下跌讓印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)在降息方面有更大的自由，並減輕了該國經常賬戶赤字沉痾帶來的威脅。同時人們還預計，就在中國持續數十年的經濟繁榮開始降溫之際，由印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導的親企業政府將能夠釋放該國的經濟潛力。

India is expected to report an annual growth rate of 7.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year when it releases data on Friday, putting it ahead of China’s 7 per cent for the second consecutive quarter. However, much of that is down to a change in the way India calculates growth, which has added about 2 percentage points to the headline figure.

印度將在本週五發佈經濟數據，預計屆時將宣佈其今年一季度的增長率達到7.3%，這將讓該國經濟增速連續第二個季度超過中國的7%增長率。然而，這在很大程度上是因爲印度改變了計算增長的方式，從而使得其整體經濟增速增加了大約兩個百分點。

Southeast Asia is also seeing a rejig of its fastest-growing nations. The Philippines, which reports first-quarter gross domestic product figures tomorrow, is tipped to expand 6.3 per cent this year, cementing its position as the Asean bloc’s top performer. Vietnam, long seen as an economic basket case, is not far behind with projected growth of 6.1 per cent.

東南亞地區增長最快經濟體的排名也發生了變化。菲律賓將於明日發佈其一季度GDP增長數據，預計增速達6.3%，進一步鞏固其作爲東盟(ASEAN)集團排頭兵的地位。長期被視爲經濟凋敝的越南不會離預期的6.1%增長率太遠。

In contrast, Indonesia and Thailand are both in the midst of painful slowdowns. The Indonesian economy has been hit hard by falling demand from China for its commodity exports — largely coal — which economists say is pulling the country’s trend growth down below 5 per cent.

相比之下，印尼和泰國都陷入了痛苦的經濟放緩當中。印尼經濟受到中國大宗商品進口需求下降（大部分是煤炭）的沉重打擊，經濟學家們表示，這讓該國的趨勢增長率降至5%以下。

“It is now increasingly obvious that the improvements in Indonesia’s macro performance between 2010 and 2013 were cyclical and externally driven, rather than structural and domestically driven as the bulls insisted,” Richard Iley, BNP Paribas economist, wrote in a report.

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)經濟學家理查德•伊利(Richard Iley)在一篇報告中表示：“現在越來越明顯的是，印尼在2010年至2013年的宏觀經濟表現改善是受到週期性和外部因素的推動，而不是像看好印尼的人士所堅稱的那樣，受到結構性和國內因素的推動。”

Domestic politics has played an important role in both driving and hindering growth across the region. Indonesia’s reform-minded president, Joko Widodo, has made little progress in raising productivity and boosting domestic activity, leaving the country vulnerable to damaging capital outflows as US interest rates begin to rise.

國內政治在東南亞地區經濟增長方面扮演着重要的角色，無論是推動還是阻礙經濟增長。印尼的改革派總統佐科•維多多(Joko Widodo)在提升生產率和促進國內經濟活動方面沒有取得多少進展，如果美國開始加息，該國就很容易遭受破壞性的資本外流的打擊。

A year on from the military coup in Thailand, the political uncertainty is continuing to drag on the economy. After growing just 0.7 per cent last year, the rebound is expected to be slow, with some forecasting growth of just 3 per cent in 2015.

泰國軍事政變已經過去了一年，但政治不確定性仍在影響着該國經濟。在去年僅增長0.7%之後，預計泰國經濟復甦將非常緩慢，一些人預計該國2015年經濟增長率僅爲3%。

“Firms are keeping investment plans on hold while the political situation remains unclear,” said Capital Economics in a report. “Meanwhile consumer sentiment remains weak.”

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)在一篇報告中表示：“在政治局勢依然不明朗之際，企業紛紛擱置投資計劃。與此同時，消費者情緒依然疲弱。”

The economic climate in Asia is a marked change from 2012, when Indonesia and Thailand were both booming on rising exports and soaring consumer spending, while India, plagued by political paralysis and rampant inflation, saw growth drop to its lowest since 2008.

亞洲經濟氣候從2012年開始發生了明顯改變，當時印尼和泰國經濟均因出口增長和消費者支出飆升而蓬勃發展，而印度則由於政治癱瘓和通脹飆升，經濟增長降至2008年以來的最低水平。