TPP如何影響亞太地區貿易模式

HONG KONG — Willie Fung, a leader in the world’s bra industry, knows just what he will do if negotiators from the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations complete a Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement this summer.

香港——全球胸衣行業的領導者馮煒堯(Willie Fung)很清楚，如果美國和11個環太平洋國家的談判代表在今年夏天簽署跨太平洋夥伴關係協定（Trans Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP），他接下來會怎麼做。

He says he will catch a flight to Vietnam to look at possible locations for a new brassiere factory. Mr. Fung’s company, Top Form, has built factories in China, Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar, countries that are not part of the planned trade deal. That makes him worry that they may become less competitive if Vietnam qualifies for extra-low tariffs and the United States eases access in other ways to its vast market.

他說自己會坐飛機去越南，尋找一個合適的地方，用來建立新的胸衣加工廠。馮煒堯的黛麗絲國際有限公司(Top Form)之前已經在中國、泰國、柬埔寨和緬甸建立了加工廠，這些國家都沒有參與TPP談判。這讓他擔心，如果參與談判的越南取得了超低關稅優勢，而且美國在其他方面也作出安排，讓它可以順暢地進入其巨大市場，前面提到的幾個國家的競爭力可能會有所下降。

As the trade talks move toward conclusion, Mr. Fung said, garment industry tycoons here in Hong Kong “ask ourselves the question, ‘What does it mean to us?’ ”

馮煒堯表示，隨着貿易談判進入尾聲，香港的服裝加工業巨頭們都在“問自己這個問題，‘這對我們來說意味着什麼？’”

After a bitter fight, the House and Senate approved legislation last month to allow President Obama and his successor to submit the Pacific pact and a potential agreement with Europe to Congress for an up-or-down vote with no filibusters or amendments permitted.

經過一番鏖戰之後，美國參衆兩院上月已經通過一項法案，授權奧巴馬總統及其繼任者向國會提交TPP和一項可能會與歐洲達成的協議，議員們將只能對此投支持或反對票，不能用冗長演說式拖延戰術阻撓議程，也不能對協議內容進行修訂。

The draft text of the agreement has not been released, but emerging details suggest that it could have a substantial effect on a variety of industries.

這份協議草案的內容還沒有發佈，但是已經浮現的細節顯示，它可能會對諸多行業產生實質性影響。

Some Asian economists, particularly those from China, are skeptical that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will have a profound effect on commerce in the region. He Weiwen, a former Chinese Commerce Ministry official who is now a director of the influential China-United States-European Union Study Center at the China Association of International Trade in Beijing, said the potential expansion of trade from a possible China-led pact covering all of East Asia could be up to three times greater.

一些亞洲經濟學家，尤其是來自中國的經濟學家，對跨太平洋夥伴關係協定是否真的會對這一地區的貿易產生深刻影響，持懷疑態度。前中國商務部官員何偉文表示，如果由中國牽頭制定覆蓋所有東亞地區國家的貿易協議，其潛在貿易擴大幅度會是TPP的三倍。何偉文現在是北京的中國國際貿易學會中美歐研究中心主任，這個中心頗具影響力。

One shortcoming of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is that it has only one major consumer market, the United States, while the rest of the trading partners are essentially producers with limited demand for imported goods, said Terence Chong, who is the executive director of the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and is also a senior economist at Nanjing University in east-central China.

跨太平洋夥伴關係協定的缺點之一在於，它只有一個重要消費市場，即美國，其他貿易伙伴基本上都是提供商品的生產國，進口需求非常有限。香港中文大學全球經濟及金融研究所常務所長莊太量(Terence Chong)表示，他也是位於中國中東部的南京大學的高級經濟學家。

“There are not enough markets for the whole thing to develop — you need China as a market and producer,” he said. “You need more members; now it has only 12, but it may need 20.”

“沒有那麼大市場，不足以支撐所有國家的發展，你需要中國參與進來，既作爲一個市場，也是生產國。”他說道。“需要有更多成員，現在只有12個，可能需要20個。”

Such criticisms have not dissuaded the Obama administration from pushing ahead. One goal of the pact is to set streamlined rules on technical issues like standardizing the online processing of customs documents, a measure that could not only expedite shipments but also reduce the opportunities for bribing customs officials.

這類批評意見並沒有影響到奧巴馬政府繼續推進此事的決心。TPP的目標之一，是爲一些技術問題設定精簡規則。比如關稅文件在線處理的標準化，這一措施不僅能加快發貨速度，還能減少海關人員受賄的機會。

“The real impact, I think, is going to be on trade facilitation,” said Richard Vuylsteke, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.

“我想，它真正的影響在於貿易便利化，”位於香港的美國商會主席魏理庭(Richard Vuylsteke)說道。

The member countries of the new pact already have a series of bilateral free trade agreements and regional trade agreements that cover large chunks of their trade with each other. The two big exceptions are Japan, which has gone out of its way to protect its farmers, and Vietnam, which is embracing capitalism while remaining tightly controlled politically by its Communist Party.

這一新協議的成員國之前已經達成了一系列雙邊自由貿易協定和區域貿易協定，可以覆蓋他們彼此之間的大部分貿易活動。其中只有兩個比較大的例外，日本和越南，前者竭力保護其本國農民的利益，後者則仍然由越南共產黨實行嚴密的政治控制。

But perhaps the single biggest driving force is geopolitical.

最大的推動力可能是地緣政治因素。

China has been making increasingly assertive claims of sovereignty over islands and seas close to Japan and Vietnam. That has left both countries willing to open their markets wider to trade with the United States, as a way to move further under the American security umbrella.

中國對日本及越南附近島嶼及海域的主權訴求愈發強硬。這促使兩個國家願意更多地開放市場，與美國開展交易，以進一步靠近美國的安全保護傘。

The bra industry offers one specific sign of what some of the shifting trade patterns from a successful Trans-Pacific Partnership might mean.

胸衣產業提供了一個具體案例，說明了如果TPP成功通過，所帶來的貿易模式轉變可能意味着什麼。

As it turns out, a move of bra manufacturing from China and some of its Southeast Asian neighbors to Vietnam could have a modestly beneficial effect on textile makers in the United States. That is because the partnership is virtually certain to include a “yarn forward” rule, specialists said. Such a rule, already found in the North American Free Trade Agreement, says that to qualify for low or zero tariffs while crossing borders within the regional trade pact, garments must be made from fabric woven in a member country, and that fabric must be made from yarn made in a member country.

事實證明，胸衣產業從中國及其東南亞鄰國轉移到越南的情況會給美國的紡織品生產商帶來一定的正面影響。專家們表示，這是因爲該協定實際上肯定會加入“從紗線開始”的規定。《北美自由貿易協定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)已經包含該規定。該規定要求，要想在向該地區貿易協定成員國出口產品時享受較低關稅或零關稅優惠，服裝必須由成員國出產的布料製成，而且布料本身也必須由成員國生產的紗線製成。

Vietnam has low-cost labor but virtually no fabric production or yarn production, said Mr. Fung, who is the chairman of the Hong Kong Garment Manufacturers Association. The United States is the only country in the proposed trade zone with a cotton yarn industry or a cotton fabric industry of any size, and one of several countries in the pact with sizable production of synthetic fabric.

身兼香港製衣廠同業公會(Hong Kong Garment Manufacturers Association)主席一職的馮煒堯表示，越南擁有廉價勞動力，但基本上並不生產布料或紗線。美國是擬建貿易區中唯一擁有一定規模的棉紗產業或棉布料產業的國家，除美國之外，還有幾個成員國能夠大量生產混合纖維。

Freight costs to bring fabric from the United States to Asia are extremely low, largely because current trade flows across the Pacific lopsidedly consist of goods traveling from China to the United States. To avoid having shipping containers come back to Asia empty, freight companies accept very low rates for exporters in the United States who want to send cargo to Asia.

將布料從美國運往亞洲的運費非常低，這在很大程度上是因爲，目前跨太平洋地區的貿易流量主要是從中國運往美國的貨物。爲了不讓船運集裝箱空蕩蕩地回到亞洲，貨運公司同意那些想要向亞洲運送貨物的美國出口商支付非常低的運費。

Foreign companies may eventually set up yarn and fabric factories in Vietnam. But this could take many years. The country has almost no one with the technical skills needed to operate and maintain the computerized equipment for these highly automated industries.

外國公司可能最終會在越南設立紗線廠及布料廠。但這可能需要多年的時間。在越南，幾乎沒人掌握操作、維護這些高自動化產業的計算機化設備所需要的技術。

So garment makers may set up operations in Vietnam for shipments to the United States, while buying substantial quantities of American fabric to supply their factories, Mr. Fung said. And fabric is a big part of the overall cost.

馮煒堯表示，因此，製衣商可能會在越南設立生產平臺，生產向美國出口的服裝，同時購買大量美國布料，爲其工廠提供原料。而布料在總成本中會佔據很大的比例。

“If I sell a $10 bra to the United States,” Mr. Fung said, “$5.50 of the cost is the fabric.”

“如果我以10美元的價格向美國出售一件胸衣，” 馮煒堯說。“其中5.5美元是布料成本。”