貿易戰陰雲密佈,分析師如何看待

“This can turn ugly…”

“情勢可能會轉惡……”

Stocks across Asia-Pacific tumbled, bond prices rose and the yen rallied on Friday in the wake of the Trump administration’s announcement that it would impose tariffs on up to $60bn in annual imports from China.

在特朗普政府宣佈將對每年高達600億美元的中國輸美產品徵收25%關稅以後，週五亞太地區股市重挫，債券價格上漲，日元反彈。

Beijing hit back on Friday. The Ministry of Commerce said it was planning tariffs on 128 products accounting for around $3bn in US imports, although that reaction was technically in response to earlier steel and aluminium tariffs.

北京方面在週五作出反擊。中國商務部表示，計劃對美國輸華的128個稅項產品加徵關稅，按2017年統計，涉及美對華約30億美元出口。儘管中方的這一動作理論上是爲了迴應更早時美國對進口鋼鐵和鋁徵收關稅的舉措。

Here is a quick roundup of what analysts are saying about the brewing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

以下是分析師對於世界最大的兩個經濟體之間正在醞釀的貿易戰的點評摘要。

ING Asia Pacific chief economist Robert Carnell:

荷蘭國際集團(ING)亞太首席經濟學家羅伯特?卡內爾(Robert Carnell)表示：

If the tariffs go ahead as planned, then we believe China will retaliate. It is impossible to imagine that they cannot. And then we expect the US to retaliate further.

“如果關稅按計劃實施，那麼我們認爲，中國將會進行報復。無法想象關稅不會推進。在那之後，我們預計美國將進一步報復。”

This can turn ugly on a global scale very quickly. And synchronous global growth or not, markets are right to be pricing in a more subdued outlook.

“情勢可能很快在全球範圍轉惡。無論是否與全球增長同步，市場按照更黯淡的前景來定價，是正確的。”

Although this trade dispute is largely a US-China one, it has the potential to embroil much of the Asian region.

“儘管這次的貿易糾紛主要是中美之間的，亞洲大多數地區也有可能被捲入。”

ANZ economists Raymond Yeung and Daniel Wilson:

澳新銀行(ANZ)的經濟學家楊宇霆(Raymond Yeung)和丹尼爾?威爾遜(Daniel Wilson)說：

Chinese authorities will stand firm as an advocate for globalisation but will respond to the US’s announcement on a bilateral basis. It will not devalue its currency.

“中國當局將堅定全球化倡導者的立場，但會在雙邊基礎上回應美國宣佈的舉措。中國不會讓貨幣貶值。”

Although the face value of the US tariff will be small, President Trump may push other countries to take sides, resulting in a divided world. The scale of the trade war would be broadened. This is the biggest risk lying ahead.

“儘管從賬目數字來看美國徵收關稅的規模不大，但特朗普總統可能會推動其他國家選邊站，最終導致世界分裂。貿易戰的規模可能會擴大。這是未來的最大風險。”

Our major worry is whether President Trump’s tactical approach will spill over to the rest of the world. He deliberately relates trade measures to foreign policy.

“我們主要擔憂的是特朗普總統的策略是否會給世界其他地方帶來溢出效應。他故意將貿易措施與外交政策關聯起來。”

JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist Hannah Anderson:

摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)全球市場策略師漢娜?安德森(Hannah Anderson) ：

The equity market will bear the brunt of the market reactions. Most impacted will be the US, Korea, and Taiwan as companies domiciled in these markets make up a significant portion of the global production chain of Chinese exports.

“首當其衝的將是股市。受影響最大的將是美國、韓國和臺灣，因爲在這些市場註冊的公司佔據了中國出口產品全球生產鏈的很大一部分。”

The effects are likely to be felt more strongly in the US and increase in both consumer and producer prices. Exports are extremely important to the Chinese economy, but have been trending less so in recent years and the U.S. has been shrinking as a share of China’s export market.

“美國感受到的影響可能會更強烈，消費者價格和生產者價格都會上漲。出口對中國經濟來說非常重要，但近年來重要性趨於下降，美國佔中國出口市場的份額一直在縮小。”

Other than the potential modest inflationary impact on U.S. consumer prices, which could bias the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, impact in the bond market is like to be limited.

“除了對美國消費者價格帶來溫和的潛在通脹影響外——這可能會使美聯儲採取更強硬的姿態——它對債券市場的影響可能有限。”

The Economist Intelligence Unit global chief economist Simon Baptist:

經濟學人集團智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)全球首席經濟學家西蒙?巴普蒂斯特(Simon Baptist) ：

The initial list of products proposed by China should be seen as a minimum opening retaliation, showing that China will prefer to keep any trade war contained and within World Trade Organisation parameters, but it has clearly left the door open to expand these if US actions escalate.

“中國提出的初步產品清單應該被視爲最低限度的初始報復，表明中國更願意將任何貿易戰限制在世界貿易組織(WTO)的框架內，但是如果美國的行動升級，它顯然還有後手。”

Excluding consumer goods such as iPhones from the tariffs won't protect US consumers from price increases. China is so integral to global supply chains for many products that a good portion - but not all - of the tariff impact will be passed onto US consumers.

“從關稅清單中排除iPhone之類消費品不會保護美國消費者免遭價格上漲的影響。中國對許多產品的全球供應鏈不可或缺，因此會有很大一部分（但不是全部）關稅影響傳遞給美國消費者。”

China’s swift response to Trump’s tariff announcement and the departure of national security adviser HR McMaster from the White House “seem to have been the last straws” for the dollar against the yen, Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said, adding that the break through the ￥105 mark was “disturbing”.

Westpac高級外匯策略師肖恩?卡洛(Sean Callow)表示，中國對特朗普關稅聲明迅速做出反應以及美國國家安全顧問赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)離職“似乎是壓倒美元兌日元匯率的最後一根稻草”，他補充說，美元兌日元突破1美元兌105日元大關“令人不安”。

Japanese officials can express concern but their complaints have no plausible threat behind them, given the hands-off approach to intervention by the Abe administration and the fact that the yen is not especially strong in trade-weighted terms

“日本官員可以表示擔憂，但他們的抱怨不包含任何可信的威脅，因爲安倍政府對干預的態度是放任不管，而且經過貿易加權的日元並不特別堅挺。”