非洲經濟的獨特機遇 China's slowdown: an opportunity for Africa to address longstandin

The steady economic growth that Africa has enjoyed over the past decade is now waning. Global commodity prices, particularly oil, have weakened and China, Africa’s largest individual bilateral trading partner, has slowed considerably as it rebalances itself away from investment and growth. According to the IMF, a 1 percentage point decrease in China’s investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s export growth rate. The depth of the China-Africa trade relationship explains why this month, the World Bank, in its annual Africa’s Pulse report, downgraded Africa’s growth projections from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.7 per cent in 2015 – the lowest growth the region will have seen since the ripples of the global economic crisis hit it in 2009. A new period of slow growth demands new and creative responses from African leaders.

非洲過去十年享受的穩定經濟增長現在開始減緩。全球大宗商品（尤其是石油）價格低迷，而中國這個非洲最大的單一雙邊貿易伙伴的經濟大幅放緩——它正在轉型擺脫投資拉動增長的模式。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據顯示，中國投資增長率每下降1個百分點，非洲出口增長率平均下降0.6個百分點。中非密切的貿易關係解釋了，爲何本月世界銀行(World Bank)在其《非洲脈搏》(Africa’s Pulse)年度報告中將非洲增長預測從2014年的4.6%下調至2015年的3.7%——這是自2009年遭受全球經濟危機餘波衝擊以來，該地區將會出現的最低增長率。非洲進入新的緩慢增長時期，這要求非洲領導人做出新的創造性迴應。

While the commodity climate and China’s slowdown are certainly a challenge for African policymakers, they also present a unique opportunity. Relying on the beneficial economic climate that has fostered complacency with market inefficiencies is now no longer an option. Necessity will demand that African governments adapt to unfavourable global trends by squeezing greater productivity from the structures and systems that are already in place. East Africa is already quietly making strides in eliminating economic inefficiencies and the progress has much to teach the rest of the region.

儘管對非洲政策制定者來說，大宗商品環境和中國經濟放緩肯定是種挑戰，但它們也代表着獨特的機遇。非洲曾經依賴有利的經濟大環境，滿足於市場的低效，但現在這種做法不再可行。非洲各國政府將不得不適應不利的全球趨勢，從現有的結構和系統中擠壓出更多的生產力。東非已經悄然在消除經濟低效方面取得進展，它的成就值得其他非洲國家借鑑。

East African countries – Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi – have demonstrated over the past 24 months that attacking inefficiencies is not only possible, but yields rapid returns. Through the Northern Corridor Integration Project, Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya have addressed longstanding bottlenecks in transportation. Being landlocked, Rwanda and Uganda rely on Kenya’s Mombasa port for trade, and a plethora of border inefficiencies made cargo travel times extremely costly and uncompetitive. Through regular meetings of the presidents of the countries and a focusing of government attention, the countries were able to reduce the travel time of cargo trucks from Mombasa to Kampala, Uganda from 18 days to 4 days, and between Mombasa and Kigali, Rwanda from 21 days to only 5 days. This progress was achieved from no new investment in roads or rail, but rather through the targeted elimination of inefficiencies.

東非國家——盧旺達、肯尼亞、烏干達、坦桑尼亞和布隆迪——在過去24個月裏顯示了，解決效率低下問題不僅是可能的，而且很快就會見效。通過“北部走廊一體化項目”(Northern Corridor Integration Project)，烏干達、盧旺達和肯尼亞解決了長期的交通瓶頸問題。由於地處內陸，盧旺達和烏干達依賴肯尼亞的蒙巴薩港口開展貿易，邊境效率過度低下導致貨運時間長，成本極爲昂貴且缺乏競爭力。通過幾國總統定期會晤和政府重點關注，幾國現在能夠將從蒙巴薩到烏干達坎帕拉的貨運時間從18天縮短至4天，將從蒙巴薩到盧旺達基加利的貨運時間從21天縮短至5天。幾國並未對公路或鐵路進行任何新的投資，而是通過針對性的消除效率低下問題就取得了上述進步。

Another inspiring example is East Africa’s recent telecom reform policies. The East African Community (EAC) recognized that expensive roaming fees that applied when operating across borders were impeding trade, Communication and commerce between countries and decided to take action. The governments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda saw internal barriers to free-flowing communication as an obstacle to deepening the common market and pressured Safaricom, Airtel, MTN and others to accept a “One-Network-Area” agreement, which became operational in January. After reducing the tariffs for calling other national networks by more than 60 per cent, roaming traffic among the EAC member countries immediately reached staggering numbers. The Communications Authority of Kenya reported that since the One-Network-Area’s establishment, Kenya’s incoming roaming traffic from Rwanda increased by 951 per cent, and Kenya’s outbound roaming traffic increased by 254 per cent, meaning more revenues for the telecom operators. Last week’s Northern Corridor Summit in Nairobi expanded the One-Network-Area to include data, to deepen the impact.

另一個鼓舞人心的例子是東非最近的電信改革政策。東非共同體(East African Community)意識到，跨境運營時昂貴的漫遊費阻礙了國家間的貿易、通信和商務，並決定就此採取措施。肯尼亞、烏干達和盧旺達政府將阻礙自由通信的內部壁壘視爲深化共同市場的障礙，並對Safaricom、Airtel、MTN以及其他電信運營商施加壓力，要求它們接受今年1月生效的單一網絡區域(One-Network-Area)協議。在將撥打國外網絡的電話費率降低逾60%之後，東非共同體成員國之間的漫遊量立即達到驚人的數字。肯尼亞通信管理局報告稱，自建立單一網絡區域以來，盧旺達打入肯尼亞的電話漫遊量增長951%，肯尼亞打向國外的電話漫遊量增長254%，這意味着電信運營商的收入增加。近期在內羅畢召開的“北部走廊峯會”將單一網絡區域擴大至包括數據在內，以深化影響。

Through political will, mutual cooperation and strong execution, East African countries have unleashed hidden value. Speaking of these efforts, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said: “We have found that we have the power to drive growth with what we already have on the ground in East Africa. The results not only help attract new investment partners, but more importantly provide the momentum required to tackle even bigger challenges together in the years ahead.”

通過政治意願、通力協作和強力執行，東非國家釋放出了隱藏的價值。盧旺達總統保羅慍加梅(Paul Kagame)在談到這些努力時表示：“我們發現，我們有力量憑藉東非已有的資源推動增長。結果不僅有助於吸引新的投資夥伴，而且更重要的是提供共同解決未來幾年更大規模挑戰所需的動能。”

Seeing the progress being made, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have joined the Northern Corridor Integration Project.

看到取得的進步，埃塞俄比亞和剛果民主共和國加入了北部走廊一體化項目。

In the face of slowing external investment and the long-term timeframe of most infrastructure projects, short-term productivity gains can be unlocked by attacking economic inefficiencies with well thought-out and implemented collective solutions. If the rest of the continent follows East Africa’s example, either by initiative or by necessity, China’s slowdown could provide an opportunity to address longstanding issues that have been holding many African countries back from their full economic potential.

在外部投資放緩和大多數基礎設施項目時間週期過長的情況下，可以通過深思熟慮且執行良好的集體措施解決經濟效率低下問題，從而提高短期生產力。如果非洲大陸其他國家效仿東非（無論是主動還是被動），中國經濟放緩可能爲解決非洲長期存在的問題提供機會，這些問題過去一直妨礙許多非洲國家充分釋放經濟潛力。