歐洲領導人爲何無法接近特朗普

Normally, personal relationships between elected leaders scarcely matter. Most leaders follow the briefing books written by their bureaucracy. They pursue long-established national policies. Any talk of personal “chemistry” is usually just gossip.

民選領導人之間的私交通常都不太重要。多數領導人都照着手下官僚寫的簡要冊子行事。他們奉行長期以來的國家政策。任何有關個人“化學作用”的說法通常只是私下流傳的八卦。

But it’s different with Donald Trump. After a career running a small family company without a board, he doesn’t do bureaucracy. He surrounds himself with trusted lackeys. Anyone who manages to get a word in his ear therefore has a good chance of shaping the world’s fate.

但是唐納德特朗普(Donald Trump)不一樣。特朗普以前經營着一家沒有董事會的小型家族公司，他不奉行官僚作風。他身邊都是自己的親信。因此，任何能在他跟前說上話的人都有機會影響這個世界的命運。

So far, Trump hasn’t bothered much with foreign policy. Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and leaving the Paris climate accords were chiefly symbolic acts. But that could soon change. His tax bill may prove his last big domestic legislation, especially given his shrunken Senate majority. That will free up more head space to get worked up about foreign issues, from North Korea to Iran. Other western countries therefore face an urgent question — how to influence this man

目前爲止，特朗普還沒太管外交政策的事。把美國駐以色列大使館搬到耶路撒冷以及退出巴黎氣候協定主要是象徵性的舉動。但是這種情況可能很快就會改變。他的稅改法案可能成爲他最後一項重大國內立法，特別是考慮到他在參議院的多數優勢在減弱的情況。這件事結束後，他的腦子就能更多地思考從朝鮮到伊朗等的外交問題。因此其他西方國家面臨着一個迫切問題——如何去影響此人？

After his unexpected election, ambassadors in Washington hastily invited his associates to dinner. But soon after these meals, many of the associates vanished. (Remember Rudy Giuliani)

在特朗普意外當選後，駐華盛頓的各國大使匆忙邀請他的副手們共赴晚宴。但在吃過飯後不久，其中很多副手消失了。（還記得魯迪朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)嗎？）

Foreign officials quickly grasped that Trump’s White House is structured like a small family company: only relatives (excluding wives) are unsackable. Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, took Trump’s daughter Ivanka to a Canadaphile Broadway play, and Angela Merkel brought her to Berlin for a panel. But the biggest prize for western diplomats is Jared Kushner, Ivanka’s husband, the so-called “shadow secretary of state”. A French official who was garrulous on all subjects suddenly fell silent when asked to assess Kushner. The subject was too sensitive.

外國官員很快意識到，特朗普領導的白宮就像是小型家族企業：唯有親屬（妻子除外）是鐵打不動的。加拿大總理賈斯廷特魯多(Justin Trudeau)邀請特朗普的女兒伊萬卡(Ivanka)去看了一部親加拿大的百老匯戲劇。安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)帶她去柏林參加一場對話會。但是西方外交官最想結交的是伊萬卡的丈夫、人稱“影子國務卿”的賈裏德庫什納(Jared Kushner)。有一位法國官員講起什麼話題都滔滔不絕，但被問及如何評價庫什納這個人時，他突然陷入了沉默。這個話題太敏感了。

Allies have also staked out Trump’s Floridian retreat, Mar-a-Lago. Canada’s special asset is former premier Brian Mulroney, who knows Trump from the Florida vacation-home circuit, but everyone can play this game. “Any foreign intel service that doesn’t have an agent as a member or employee of Mar-a-Lago is guilty of rank incompetence,” says American neocon writer Max Boot.

盟友們還密切關注着特朗普在佛羅里達州的居所海湖莊園(Mar-a-Lago)。加拿大的法寶是前總理布賴恩馬爾羅尼(Brian Mulroney)——他在那裏認識了特朗普——但每個人都能來這一套。美國新保守主義作家馬克斯布特(Max Boot)表示，“如果哪家外國情報機構沒有在海湖莊園安插特工，就是不稱職。”

Yet western allies still feel out of the Trumpian loop. Talking to the administration’s “grown-ups” — defence secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser HR McMaster — only gets them so far: Trump apparently overruled the grown-ups on Jerusalem, for instance. More than in previous US administrations, reaching the president is essential. And the Europeans must reach him without being able to put forward many of the generals, billionaires and autocrats whom Trump admires.

但西方盟友仍然感覺沒進入特朗普的圈子。和特朗普政府中的“成年人”——國防部長吉姆馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和國家安全顧問赫伯特雷蒙德麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)——交談沒太大作用：例如，在耶路撒冷問題上，特朗普顯然駁回了成年人的建議。相比往屆美國政府，如今與總統接觸尤爲重要。而且，歐洲人必須在講不出幾個令他欽佩的將軍、億萬富翁和獨裁者的情況下與他接觸。

Perhaps Europe’s leading Trump-whisperer is Emmanuel Macron, the French president. The best actor-politician since Ronald Reagan, Macron first demonstrated his toughness towards Trump with the famous white-knuckle handshake. Then came France’s diplomatic coup: Trump’s visit to Paris for July’s Bastille Day parade. Macron hosted him without showing a hint of the intellectual condescension to which Trump is so sensitive. When the two men met again in September, Trump spent the first 10 minutes reliving the parade, which he hopes to replicate in Washington next July 4. “And I want horses!” he told his entourage.

歐洲最能跟特朗普說上話的或許是法國總統埃馬紐埃爾馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)。作爲自羅納德里根(Ronald Reagan)以來最好的演技派政客，馬克龍首先以那次著名的握手（握到指關節發白），向特朗普展示了他的堅韌。接着是法國的外交妙招：特朗普訪問巴黎參加了7月巴士底日(Bastille Day)閱兵。馬克龍接待特朗普時絲毫沒有流露出才智上的優越感，特朗普在這方面非常敏感。當倆人於9月再次會晤時，特朗普先花了10分鐘重提那次閱兵——他希望明年7月4日也在華盛頓舉行閱兵。“我要一些馬！”他告訴隨從人員。

The French aren’t sure how much this helps them. Trump still dropped out of the Paris accords. At least, they say, Macron can make his case to Trump and be heard.

法國人不確定這有多大幫助。特朗普仍然退出了巴黎協定。他們表示，至少馬克龍能向特朗普解釋自己的立場而且特朗普聽進去了。

Merkel and Theresa May wish they could. Uncharismatic women who don’t live in bling-laden palaces, they can’t meet Trump king to king, and they don’t play golf. Merkel also suffers, notes Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution, from Trump’s disapproval of “bad, very bad Germany” — a phrase he once used in Brussels when complaining to European leaders about the German trade surplus.

默克爾和特里薩梅(Theresa May)希望自己也能這樣。這些不住在金碧輝煌的宮殿中、缺乏魅力的女性，不能與特朗普進行“王對王”的會面，也不會打高爾夫球。布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的康斯坦策施特爾岑米勒(Constanze Stelzenmüller)指出，特朗普不贊同“糟糕、非常糟糕的德國”——這是他在布魯塞爾向歐洲領導人抱怨德國貿易順差時所說的話——也讓默克爾受挫。

His refusal to shake Merkel’s hand in Washington was a clear statement from a man who learnt the symbolism of handshakes after entering politics. (Previously, he avoided shaking for fear of germs.) Merkel regularly phones Trump. But she comes across as condescending. Thorsten Benner, head of Berlin’s Global Public Policy Institute, says, “He sees her as an irritating European who’s always lecturing him.” At most she can use Trump as an argument to nudge Germans towards more European co-operation. Jeremy Shapiro and Dina Pardijs, writing for the European Council on Foreign Relations, call this Trump’s “Antichrist effect”.

對於一個在步入政壇後（之前他因擔心感染細菌而避免與人握手）懂得握手象徵意義的人來說，特朗普在華盛頓拒絕與默克爾握手就是一個明顯表現。默克爾經常與特朗普通電話，但她給人一種紆尊降貴的印象。柏林全球公共政策研究所(Global Public Policy Institute)的索斯藤本納(Thorsten Benner)表示，“他把她看作是總給他說教的惹人生氣的歐洲人。”她充其量能拿特朗普當例子，敦促德國人加強歐洲合作。爲歐洲對外關係委員會(European Council on Foreign Relations)撰稿的傑里米夏皮羅(Jeremy Shapiro)和迪納帕爾迪斯(Dina Pardijs)稱這是特朗普的“反基督效應”。

Merkel and May are also constrained by their domestic audiences. Whereas French voters tend to have little emotional investment in US politics, most Germans and Brits want their leaders to berate Trump. May has characteristically mishandled this. Days after his inauguration, she visited Washington to hold his hand and ask for a trade deal. She offered him a state visit, which if it ever happens, will prompt a historic demonstration. Her efforts were both pointless and irresponsible. Trump probably won’t ever give the UK his advertised “very big & exciting” deal.

默克爾和梅也受到國內民衆制約。法國選民一般不會對美國政治投入多少感情，而大多數德國人和英國人都希望他們的領導人痛斥特朗普。梅是這方面處理不當的典型。在特朗普就職後幾天，她出訪華盛頓握着特朗普的手要求達成一項貿易協議。她邀請他對英國進行國事訪問——如果成行將引發歷史性的示威活動。她的努力既沒意義又不負責。特朗普可能永遠也不會跟英國簽訂他所說的“非常大且令人激動的”協議。

Now, with Trump apparently planning to bomb North Korea in the last months before it can hit the US, Europeans are mere spectators. Their best hope of influencing him might be buying commercials on Fox News’s morning shows. They can only hope 2018 will be as benign as 2017.

在如今特朗普似乎打算在朝鮮還沒能夠打擊美國的最後幾個月內搶先轟炸朝鮮的形勢下，歐洲人只是旁觀者而已。他們要想影響特朗普，最有希望的做法或許就是在福克斯新聞(Fox News)早間節目花錢做廣告。他們只能希望2018年和2017年一樣順順當當。