是否杞人憂天 人工智能引發爭鳴

The possibility that robots may one day take all the jobs and put the human race out of work is an idea that has taken a strong hold on the public imagination of late. Not since the 1960s has the prospect of machines replacing people inspired such awe and angst.

也許有一天，機器人會搶走所有的工作，讓所有人類失業，這是近來公衆的想象中揮之不去的一個念頭。自20世紀60年代以來，機器代替人類的前景還從未引發眼下這種程度的畏懼和焦慮。

Left out of this picture, however, is a bigger narrative about how the onrush of robot technology could change humanity’s future. Automation — for which, read sophisticated software routines informed by advanced algorithms — is already creeping into many walks of life far beyond the workplace, steering our decisions and promising to take the effort out of everyday tasks.

然而，被排除在這種想象之外的，是關於機器人科技的洶涌來襲可能如何改變人類未來的更大議題。自動化，也就是用先進的算法設計的複雜軟件程序組，已經悄然進入各行各業，出沒的地方遠不止工作場所。自動化不僅引導着我們的決策，更許諾讓日常工作變得簡單輕鬆。

What is to stop automation from ultimately assuming all of mankind’s mental and physical efforts? And when the machines do all the heavy lifting — whether in the form of robots commanding the physical world or artificial intelligence systems that relieve us of the need to think — who is the master and who the slave?

有什麼能阻止自動化最終承擔人類所有的腦力和體力勞動？不管是在實體世界發號施令的機器人，還是讓我們無需進行思考的人工智能系統，當機器挑起了一切重擔，誰是主人，誰是奴僕？

Despite the antagonism he sometimes stirs in the tech world (an influential article of his published by the Harvard Business Review in 2003 was called, provocatively, “IT Doesn’t Matter”) author Nicholas Carr is not a technophobe. But in The Glass Cage he brings a much-needed humanistic perspective to the wider issues of automation. In an age of technological marvels, it is easy to forget the human.

儘管作者尼古拉斯•卡爾(Nicholas Carr)有時會在科技界招來敵意（2003年他在《哈佛商業評論》(Harvard Business Review)上發表的一篇影響力巨大的文章標題富有煽動性，叫做《IT無關緊要》(“IT Doesn’t Matter”)），他本人並不是一個恐懼技術的人。但在《身處自動化的玻璃牢籠》(The Glass Cage)一書中，他爲理解更廣泛的自動化問題提供了一個我們迫切需要的人文主義視角。在技術大放異彩的年代，人類很容易遭到遺忘。

Carr’s argument here is that, by automating tasks to save effort, we are making life easier for ourselves at the cost of replacing our experience of the world with something inferior. “Frictionless” is the new mantra of tech companies out to simplify life as much as possible. But the way Carr sees it, much of what makes us most fulfilled comes from taking on the friction of the world through focused concentration and effort. What would happen, in short, if we were “defined by what we want”?

卡爾的論點是，通過將工作任務自動化以節省精力，我們讓生活變得更輕鬆，代價則是用一種次級的體驗取代了我們對世界的真實體驗。“無摩擦”是試圖最大程度簡化生活的技術公司的新口號。但在卡爾看來，讓我們感到充實的東西大多來自於全神貫注、努力應對世界中的“摩擦”的過程。簡而言之，如果我們“用我們想要的東西定義自身”，那會怎樣？

Mankind’s mastery of the environment owes much to the use of tools that extend our limited physical and intellectual powers, as Carr readily admits. What’s different now, though, is both the pace of change — it’s hard to adjust when so much can alter in the course of a human lifetime — and the nature of the technology itself.

卡爾坦然承認，人類對自然環境的掌控大多歸功於對工具的使用，工具擴展了我們有限的體力和智力。然而，現在與以前的差異不僅在於變化的速度（在人一輩子的時間裏就能發生如此巨大的改變，讓人很難適應），還有技術本身的性質。

At the risk of simplifying, Carr’s assertion is that there are two types of technology, which might loosely be described as the humanist and the anti-humanist. The former sets its makers free. Tools such as hammers or cars fall into this category: they extend the user’s capabilities.

卡爾提出，存在兩種技術，分別可大致稱爲人本型技術和反人本型技術（這樣劃分或許有過分簡化之嫌）。前者旨在解放人類。錘子、汽車之類的工具就屬於這個範疇：它們擴展了使用者的能力。

Anti-humanist technology, on the other hand, sidelines its creator. Its sole purpose is to replace human effort, not enhance it. If humans are ever brought into the equation to interact with this technology — for instance, when pilots have to override automatic flight systems in an emergency — the results are often dismal: deskilled by the machines and forced into machine-like modes of behaviour to operate in the machine’s world, the people seldom excel. The inevitable result is a call for more automation to take fallible humans out of the picture entirely. Removing the need for sustained physical and intellectual effort causes a degeneration in people’s capabilities, argues Carr. His description of research into these areas is exhaustive, to the point where some chapters of this book read like a glossary of academic work in the field. But it helps him build a persuasive argument.

相反，反人本技術則會使人類邊緣化。其唯一的目的是替代掉人的努力，而不是提高人努力的效率。如果讓人類參與進來，與這種技術相互作用（比如，飛行員在緊急情況下被迫停止自動駕駛系統的時候），結果往往令人沮喪：機器使人變得低能，爲了適應機器世界裏的工作，人被迫在行爲方式上向機器靠攏，因此在這種情況下很少得心應手。不可避免的結果是，進一步提高自動化程度、讓容易犯錯的人類徹底出局，成爲人們的呼聲。卡爾認爲，消除對持續體力和腦力勞動的需要，導致人類能力退化。他對這些領域的研究描述得非常詳盡，以至於書中的有些章節讀起來就像是該領域學術成果的彙編。但詳細的成果彙編也有助於提高作者論述的說服力。

In some instances, the effects of using technology to disintermediate the world sound minor. It’s hard to feel much sympathy for Carr’s complaint that automatic transmission systems in cars, for instance, have robbed him of the pleasure of driving. But others are more persuasive. As machines take on an increasing number of everyday tasks, they will inevitably have to make decisions with moral consequences, weighing courses of action that have different impacts on the people affected. And that is before even thinking about battlefield robots that are programmed to kill.

在某些情況下，技術對於阻隔我們對世界的直接感知所起到的作用似乎微不足道。比如，對於卡爾抱怨汽車自動變速系統奪走了駕駛的樂趣，我們很難感到特別認同。但在其他一些情況下，他的說法更有說服力。隨着機器承擔的日常工作越來越多，它們將不可避免地被迫做出有道德後果的抉擇，權衡對相應人羣影響不一的行動。我們甚至還沒有開始考慮任務設定爲殺戮的戰場機器人。

If there’s a criticism to be made of Carr’s attempt to save mankind from its own technology, it’s that he underplays the very substantial benefits. Driverless cars would go a long way towards eradicating the millions of deaths and injuries that are almost entirely caused by human error. Also, through advances in productivity, automation is a significant contributor to economic betterment.

對於卡爾試圖從人類自己開發的技術手中挽救人類的舉動，如果要進行批評的話，那就是他淡化了技術帶來的巨大好處。交通事故幾乎完全是由人類的錯誤導致的，無人駕駛汽車在這方面大有助益，能使數百萬人免於傷亡。自動化還能提高生產效率，從而極大地促進經濟狀況的改善。

Nor does he make allowances for the new types of work thrown up by making older forms of human endeavour redundant, or the possibility that mankind might find more rewarding outlets for its energy and creativity if the need to work was largely removed.

他也沒有考慮到，自動化雖然使一些舊式的人類勞動變得多餘，但也同時創新了新型的工作；此外，在基本不需要工作之後，人類或許有可能找到更有價值的發揮精力和創造力的方式。

Surprisingly, however, Carr manages to find a positive note to end on. He considers, but largely rejects, the possibility that a more human-centric form of design will emerge to put people back at the centre of their own technological creations.

然而，令人驚訝的是，卡爾設法以一種樂觀的方式進行了收尾。他考慮了一種可能性，那就是會出現一種更以人爲中心的設計形式，使人重新回到技術創新的中心，但他大體上駁倒了這個可能性。

The economic forces leading towards replacing people completely with software are simply too strong.

用軟件徹底取代人工的經濟推動力實在過於強大。

Likewise, he holds out little hope that people will voluntarily turn their backs on the latest technology in favour of less sophisticated tools that demand more of them, but which are ultimately far more rewarding to use. The lure of labour-saving is too great.

同樣的，對於人類自願拋棄最新的技術，轉而使用更需要人力、複雜程度較低、而且最終將更有益於使用者的工具，他也不抱多少希望。省力的誘惑太大了。

The hope arises, instead, from a belief that the social strains from the present wave of technological advance will force a reaction. Just four pages from the end, after contemplating the dire consequences of putting all the world’s workers out of work, he ventures: “To ensure society’s wellbeing in the future, we may need to place limits on automation.” Ideas of progress may have to change, he adds: today’s blinkered celebration of all forms of progress would need to be replaced by a more sophisticated approach that takes into account the social and personal consequences.

相反，我們只能寄望於這樣一種信念，即當前的技術進步浪潮引發的社會壓力會迫使人們做出反應。在考慮了讓全世界勞動者失業的種種可怕後果之後，作者在離全書結尾僅剩4頁時大膽提出：“要確保未來社會的健康，我們或許需要對自動化加以限制。”進步的概念或許也需要改變，他補充道：我們應該用一種更成熟的態度看待技術進步，將社會和個人影響納入考慮，而不是像現今這樣對任何形式的技術進步都盲目加以讚揚。

How to achieve a more balanced view of progress when all of today’s incentives are geared towards an ever-faster cycle of invention and deployment of new technologies? There is no room for an answer in this wide-ranging book. As ever, though, Carr’s skill is in setting the debate running, not finding answers.

眼下，所有的激勵措施都在推動新技術的發明和應用週期加快，如何在這種情況下實現更全面地看待技術進步？這本書談到了太多問題，限於篇幅，無法爲這一個問題找到答案。不過，卡爾的長項一直都是挑起辯論，而不是找到答案。

The Glass Cage: Where Automation Is Taking Us, by Nicholas Carr, Bodley Head RRP£20/WWNorton RRP$26.95, 288 pages

《身處自動化的玻璃牢籠》(The Glass Cage: Where Automation Is Taking Us)，尼古拉斯•卡爾(Nicholas Carr)著，288頁，建議零售價20英鎊（Bodley Head出版社）或26.95美元（WWNorton出版社）