如果活到100歲成爲稀鬆平常之事 爲百歲人生綢繆

A baby born in the west today will more likely than not live to be 105, write Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott of London Business School in their crucial new book, The 100-Year Life. That may sound like science fiction. In fact, it’s only cautiously optimistic. It’s what will happen if life expectancy continues to rise by two to three years a decade, its rate of the past two centuries. Some scientific optimists project steeper rises to come.

倫敦商學院(LBS)教授琳達•格拉頓(Lynda Gratton)和安德魯•斯科特(Andrew Scott)在兩人合著的的重要新書《百歲人生》(The 100-Year Life)中寫道，如今在西方出生的嬰兒，有超過一半概率會活到105歲。這聽起來可能像科幻小說。事實上，這種設想只是謹慎樂觀的估計。如果人類預期壽命保持過去200年來的增速，繼續每十年增加兩至三歲，這將成爲現實。一些對科學感到樂觀的人預計人類壽命增速還會加快。

If turning 100 becomes normal, then the authors predict “a fundamental redesign of life”. This book shows what that might look like.

如果活到100歲成爲稀鬆平常之事，則這兩位作者預言：“生活規劃會出現根本性的改變”。該書展示了未來生活可能的樣子。

We currently live what Gratton and Scott call “the three-stage life”: education, career, then retirement. That will change. The book calculates that if today’s children want to retire on liveable pensions, they will need to work until about age 80. That would be a return to the past: in 1880, nearly half of 80-year-old Americans did some kind of work.

我們目前的生活，用格拉頓和斯科特的話來說，是一種“三階段生活”：教育階段、職業生涯，然後是退休生活。這種模式將會改變。該書計算出，如果今天的孩子想在退休後擁有足夠維持生活的退休金，他們需要工作到80歲左右。這相當於倒退回了過去：在1880年，80歲的美國人中將近一半人還在至少從事某種形式的工作。

But few people will be able to bear the exhaustion and tedium of a 55-year career in a single sector. Anyway, technological changes would make their education obsolete long before they reached 80. The new life-path will therefore have more than three stages. Many people today are already shuffling in that direction.

但是，在一個行當裏工作55年會把絕大多數人累趴下和無聊死。不過，反正技術變革也會讓他們的教育在他們遠未到80歲時便已經過時。因此，新的生活方式將不止3個階段。如今很多人已經開始向那個方向慢慢前進了。

Two new life-stages appeared in the past century: teenagers and retirees. Now another stage is emerging, say Gratton and Scott: the years from 18 to 30, which people increasingly spend transitioning from education to full-time work. Of course, many of today’s young have no choice: they simply cannot find good jobs. But the 18-to-30s have also been quickest to understand the gift of extra years, say the authors. Many young people are now consciously searching and experimenting, working out how they want to spend the next seven or so decades. They don’t want to let life just happen, as it tended to for previous generations. Today’s parents, who grew up expecting shorter lives, should stop grumbling that 18-to-30s won’t “commit”.

過去一個世紀中，出現了兩個新的人生階段：青少年時期和退休生活。格拉頓和斯科特稱，眼下即將出現另一個階段：18歲至30歲，人們越來越多地利用這段時間來過渡，離開校園，開始全職工作。當然，如今的很多年輕人別無選擇：他們根本找不到好工作。不過，兩位作者稱，在所有人羣中，18歲至30歲的人也最快地理解了壽命增加帶來的福音。現在很多年輕人正在有意識地去探索和嘗試，試圖弄清楚自己未來七八十年想要過什麼樣的生活。他們不想隨遇而安——前輩人往往這樣生活。現在的父母從小對壽命的預期更短，他們不應再抱怨18歲至30歲的人不願“安定下來”。

Already the young are studying longer. The authors predict that more will do two degrees: first a general undergraduate course, which teaches thinking skills with lifelong value, and then a more specific vocational degree that teaches a specific sector’s current needs. After studying, the young will spend time travelling, exploring different sectors, and assembling a “posse” of friends and acquaintances who can sustain them at work and outside for 70 years. Instead of building old-fashioned CVs, people will build reputations on social media.

現在的年輕人投入於學業的時間已經延長。兩位作者預計將會有更多人完成兩個學位：第一個是普遍的本科教育，教給他們能終身受用的思維能力；之後是更專業的職業學位，教授從事某個特定行當需要掌握的知識。在完成學業後，年輕人將去旅行、探索不同的行當、並建立起能夠在工作和生活上受用70年的朋友和熟人圈。人們將在社交媒體上建立個人聲譽，而不再設計老式的簡歷。

Future careers will contain many transformations. Lives will have fourth, fifth, even sixth acts. People will have to make more choices: next year, should you work flat-out in your job, return to education to learn new skills, or transition to an entirely new sector? There will be time to achieve mastery in multiple domains. No longer will women be denied careers because they took five or 10 years out to raise kids. That will still leave them 50-plus working years. Older people, especially, will develop portfolio careers. The trick will be to keep finding work that robots cannot do.

未來的職業將包含很多轉變。生活將掀開第四、第五、甚至第六個篇章。人們將不得不做出更多選擇：接下來的一年，你是應該全力以赴地工作、重返校園充電、還是跳槽到一個全新的行當？人們將有時間精通多個領域。女性將不再因爲花了5至10年去撫育子女而無法重返職場。她們還有50多年可以工作。特別是老年人將發展出一整套職業。訣竅在於不斷找到機器人無法勝任的工作。

And people will change their use of leisure. When you could expect a 40-year career followed by fat state or corporate pensions, you could spend your free time chilling and buying stuff. But the 100-year life requires more saving. You might also need to spend much of your non-working time reskilling or exercising to maintain your body and brain for those extra decades. If that doesn’t come naturally, the authors have a tip: picture your 80-year-old self sitting by your side, tut-tutting each time you scarf a doughnut or book an expensive holiday.

同時，人們將改變對空閒時間的利用方式。當你能預想到工作40年後，你可以從政府或企業領到豐厚的養老金，你就會把空閒時間用於放鬆和購物。但是百歲人生需要人們儲蓄更多。你可能還需要花費很多的空閒時間去充電或者鍛鍊身體，以保養你的身體和大腦，爲多活的那幾十年做準備。如果你無法自覺自願地這樣做，作者有一個小竅門：想象一下80歲的你坐在你身邊，每次你狂吃甜甜圈或者預訂昂貴的度假行程時，80歲的你都會在旁邊長吁短嘆。

Longer life can come as a shock, especially to those of us in midlife. We started work thinking we’d be done by about 60, and dead at 75. But now my generation can expect to retire at perhaps 75, and live to 90. The thought of having to do your current job for another 30 years can be daunting. In any case, many of us will be pushed out in our fifties. Some people (not me obviously!) may also need second or third marriages to take them through to 90.

壽命延長可能會令人震驚，特別是對於人到中年的我們來說。我們參加工作時，以爲自己會在60歲左右退休，在75歲左右離世。但是，如今我們這一代人可能預計會在75歲退休，活到90歲。想到目前的工作還要再做30年，可能會讓人氣餒。不過，反正我們中很多人五十多歲就會被淘汰了。某些人（顯然不包括我！）可能還需要二婚甚至三婚才能支撐自己活到90歲。

In the 100-year life, age groups will mix much more than they do now. There will be more old people taking undergraduate degrees, or doing junior jobs as they descend rather than climb the corporate ladder. Many kids will grow close to their great-grandparents.

在這種百歲人生中，不同年齡段的人會比現在合得來得多。未來將有更多老年人攻讀本科學位，從事初級工作（不是在職業階梯上一路攀升，而是重新回到底層）。很多孩子會與曾祖父輩變得親近。

Most of this is to the good. Crucially, most of the years of life gained in recent decades have been healthy ones. But the book warns that the 100-year life could become the preserve of the well-off. Already the rich outlive the poor, and they will be better equipped to reskill and change careers. Poor people could face 60 years of dead-end jobs in the gig economy, followed by death at 80 without a pension. A life like that, say the authors, is “nasty, brutish and long”.

多數改變都是好的。關鍵是，近數十年增加的壽命多數都是健康的壽命。但是，該書警告稱，百歲人生可能會成爲富人的專屬。如今富人的壽命已然超過窮人，他們將更有條件去充電和改行。窮人可能會面臨這樣的前景：毫無前途的零散工作一做60年，沒有退休金，在80歲離世。兩位作者表示，這樣的人生“痛苦、殘酷又漫長”。