全球基金經理準備過冬 Fund managers brace for global recession

Fund managers are bracing for a global recession by selling stocks and commodities, according to a monthly survey of investors by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

根據美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)發佈的一份月度投資者調查，基金經理正賣出股票和大宗商品，準備迎接全球衰退。

The latest sign of concern for the economic outlook comes as investors balance the effect of recovery in the US against a slowdown for China and countries that supply it with raw materials.

這一表明投資者對經濟前景感到擔憂的最新跡象，出現在投資者權衡美國經濟復甦與中國及其原材料供應國經濟放緩的影響孰輕孰重之際。

BofA on Tuesday described a sense of “unambiguous pessimism” at the start of September, with a third of respondents saying stock prices looked the most vulnerable to tighter monetary policy in the US.

美銀美林周二發佈的調查報告，描述了9月初市場上瀰漫的一種“明確的悲觀情緒”，有三分之一的受訪者表示，股市看上去最容易受到美國收緊貨幣政策的衝擊。

A sustained rebound in the US, where unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since April 2008, means the Federal Reserve may this week raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

美國經濟持續復甦，失業率已降至自2008年4月以來最低水平，這意味着，美聯儲(Fed)本週可能加息，這將是9年來的首次。

However, investors appear more concerned about the risk of monetary policy being tightened too soon, while the state of the world economy remains uncertain and the rate of inflation is low.

然而，投資者似乎更擔心貨幣政策收緊時機過早的風險，此際全球經濟狀況仍不確定，且通脹率處於低位。

Expectations for global economic growth, and the share of portfolios directed towards stocks, are the lowest in three years, according to the bank. Fund flows this year have favoured government bonds and eurozone equities at the expense of US shares and emerging market assets.

根據美銀美林的調查，全球經濟增長預期以及投資組合中股票所佔比例處於3年低點。今年的資金流動青睞政府債券和歐元區股票，而美國股票和新興市場資產遭到拋售。

Only a quarter of respondents predicted a tightening of Fed policy this week, down from almost half in August. The first move is still thought to be imminent, however, with more than three-quarters of investors polled expecting a rate rise before the end of the year.

只有四分之一的受訪者預期美聯儲本週會加息，8月份的這個比例為將近一半。然而，受訪者仍認為美聯儲的首次加息近在眼前，有超過四分之三的受訪者預測美聯儲將在今年年底前加息。

The report comes after Citigroup on Monday said a global recession in 2016 caused by China had become the most likely scenario for the world economy. “The likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing,” economists for the bank wrote.

在這份報告出爐之前，花旗集團(Citigroup)週一表示，中國導致全球經濟在2016年陷入衰退已成為可能性最大的情景。花旗集團經濟學家寫道：“做出及時有效政策迴應的可能性似乎在減小。”

Citi identified overcapacity in several sectors, excessive financial leverage, and exuberant asset prices as risks for China, whose demand for raw materials has buoyed other developing economies for a decade.

花旗將多個行業的產能過剩、金融槓桿過高以及資產價格高漲視為中國的風險所在。10年來，中國對原材料的需求一直支撐着其他發展中經濟體。

Investors have shunned commodities, according to BofA, and identified a recession in China as the greatest “tail risk”, an event they see as possible and damaging but not likely. The monthly survey, which polled the views of 214 investors overseeing $593bn in assets, reported a drop in use of leverage by hedge funds to the lowest level since June 2012.

根據美銀美林的這份調查，投資者近來一直避開大宗商品，同時把中國衰退視為最大的“尾部風險”，即他們認為中國衰退是有可能的、而且是具有破壞性的，但發生的可能性不是很大。這份月度調查瞭解了214名投資者的看法——這些投資者總共管理着5930億美元資產——結果發現，對衝基金槓桿使用率已降至自2012年6月以來的最低水平。

“Investor sentiment is extremely depressed,” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset for Royal London.

Royal London多元資產主管特雷弗格里瑟姆(Trevor Greetham)表示：“投資者情緒極其低落。”

He said the investment manager tracked four indicators of sentiment, and the composite indicator created had dived in the past week to levels last seen during the European debt crisis and the 2008 financial crisis.

他表示，過去一週，Royal London追蹤4種情緒指標得出的綜合指標已降至上次在歐債危機期間以及2008年金融危機期間見到的水平。

The bull market for US stocks has entered a seventh year, but the S&P 500 remains on course for losses in 2015 after falling 9 per cent during a turbulent August.

美國股市的牛市已進入第七個年頭，但照目前的趨勢，今年標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)仍將下跌；在市場動盪不安的8月份，該指數下跌了9%。