日本能否挽救TPP大綱

Ever since the end of the second world war, the US has been the main anchor for the liberal international trading system. Its policy agenda, including non-liberalising measures such as tightening intellectual property rights, has frequently been controversial. But there are few major initiatives in trade policy that do not have the US playing a central role.
自二戰結束以來，美國便成爲了國際自由貿易體系的中流砥柱。儘管其政策議程（包括收緊知識產權等非自由化措施）頻頻引起爭議，但貿易政策中幾乎所有重大舉措都是由美國扮演主要角色。

This tradition is under threat from Donald Trump’s administration, which has abrogated the US’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a signed (but not yet ratified) deal with 11 other Asia-Pacific economies. His officials, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, have stated instead their preference for one-on-one deals, where the US can address its misguided ambition to use trade policy to reduce bilateral current account deficits.
這種傳統現在正面臨來自唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府的威脅。特朗普政府已宣佈退出《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，簡稱TPP），而此前美國已與其他11個亞太經濟體完成了該協定的簽署（但尚未獲批）。包括商務部長威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)在內的本屆政府官員，都顯示出了對於一對一協議的偏愛——美國可由此實現利用貿易政策來減少雙邊經常賬戶赤字這一非理性目標。

The initial reaction in the other TPP countries to the US’s withdrawal was one of shock and disappointment. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, said the agreement would be “meaningless” without US participation. But now Japan, the second-largest economy in the pact, has changed its mind and suggested the other TPP nations go ahead without the US.
TPP其他成員國對於美國退出的最初反應是震驚和失望。日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)稱，沒有美國的參與，該協定將“毫無意義”。但如今，作爲加入該協定的第二大經濟體，日本已經改變了主意，認爲其他成員國可以在沒有美國參與的情況下繼續推進TPP。

There are obvious problems with this course of action. Since the US is bigger than all the other TPP economies put together, its absence will heavily reduce the impact of the deal. Taking America out of the TPP is not as simple as deleting it from the agreed text: it will require a comprehensive revision of the agreement. And opening up the deal, particularly without the US pushing for far-reaching provisions, could mean it being painfully renegotiated and perhaps weakened.
這種做法的問題顯而易見。由於美國的經濟規模比TPP其他所有成員加起來的總量還要大，美國的退出將嚴重削弱該協定的影響力。美國退出TPP，絕非僅僅是把它從文本協議中刪除那樣簡單，而是需要對協定進行全面修訂。而繼續推進該協定，特別是在沒有美國推動意義深遠的條款的情況下，將意味着對協定內容進行艱苦的重新談判，協定的作用也可能遭到削弱。

Still, Japan’s attitude deserves praise. Initially, Mr Abe became involved in TPP largely to force domestic reform, particularly in agriculture, with the promise of more access to the US market as a trade-off. If he is prepared to do the former without the latter, it shows how the domestic debate in Japan has shifted. Second, if the US is not prepared to show leadership in maintaining and extending the trading system in Asia, it would be a welcome development for Japan to take up at least some of the running in its absence.
不過，日本的態度值得讚揚。最初，安倍參與TPP主要是爲了推進國內改革，特別是農業方面的改革，以承諾擴大美國市場作爲交換條件。如果他準備在該承諾失效的情況下繼續推進，說明日本國內的討論已發生了何種轉向。第二，如果美國不打算在維持和擴展亞洲貿易體系方面繼續起到帶頭作用，這對日本來說將是一個可喜的進展，至少可以在美國作用缺失的情況下接手部分領導力。

There is often overheated talk about China replacing the US as the trade policy hegemon in Asia, including through the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. This ignores the fact that, as the limited content of the RCEP shows, China is interested in little more than reducing goods tariffs to help its exporters. Deals led by Japan — and including advanced economies such as Australia and New Zealand — will at least address much more sophisticated issues relevant to modern commerce, including services and regulation.
有關中國將取代美國成爲亞洲貿易政策霸主——包括通過擬議中的《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,簡稱RCEP)——的討論往往甚囂塵上。這類討論忽視了一個事實：正如RCEP有限的內容所表明的那樣，中國僅對降低貨物關稅來幫助本國出口商有興趣。由日本來牽頭協定，再納入澳大利亞和新西蘭等發達經濟體，至少會解決一些與現代商業（包括服務業和監管）相關的複雜得多的問題。

As for the US, it should be careful that its withdrawal from the TPP does not leave it isolated and allow others to usurp its role. Access to the US market is still a powerful lure, but if Tokyo can put together meaningful deals in the region it will feel less compelled to sign a bilateral with the US. In the meantime, a deal between Japan and the EU is well advanced, and European regulations in any case have a way of creeping into trading partners’ economies even without a formal trade deal.
至於美國，它應當心不要因爲退出TPP而導致自己受到孤立，並且應該允許其他國家取代它的職責。進入美國市場仍然具有強大的吸引力，但如果日本能夠在亞太地區達成一些重要協定，它會覺得與美國簽訂雙邊協議不再那麼迫切。與此同時，日本和歐盟之間的協議進展順利，反正歐洲的監管總有辦法在不簽訂正式貿易協議的情況下悄悄進入貿易伙伴的經濟內。

Japan’s TPP initiative shows that updating the trading system in Asia is not a failed project. Secondly, keeping TPP alive would mean that the US cannot count on being able to impose its will through a series of bilateral deals as long as a regional alternative exists. And Mr Abe may not have given up all hope of finding a way to coax the US back into the fold. There is, after all, always life after Mr Trump.
日本關於TPP的倡議表明，對亞洲貿易體系進行升級的努力並未失敗。其次，繼續推進TPP意味着，只要有一個可替代的區域協定存在，美國就不能指望通過一系列雙邊協議來強施所願。此外，安倍也許尚未完全放棄誘使美國回到TPP的希望。畢竟，特朗普總有離開的一天。