中國科研產出2020年或趕超美國

英國皇家學會3月28日發佈了一份名爲《知識、網絡和國家：21世紀的全球科研合作》的報告。報告顯示，中國的科研論文發表數量從第六位上升到全球第二。儘管排在前十名的很多都是西方大國，但它們發表的研究論文數量正在減少，中國、巴西、印度等國發表的研究論文越來越多。到2020年，中國科研產出有可能超過美國，成爲世界第一。

該報告對全球所有國家發表的科研論文的多項數據進行了分析，並對各國在1993—2003年和2004—2008年這兩個時間段的論文數量進行比較。結果顯示，美國在科研論文數量上仍是世界第一，但其所佔比重下降了5個百分點；中國所佔比重則從4.4%上升到了10.2%。

China has shot into second place in the world in terms of the number of scientific articles that are published in international magazines and the country's scientists are set to take the top spot from the United States in the next few years, according to a new report。

"China has already overtaken the UK and is the second leading producer of research publications, but some time before 2020 it is expected to surpass the US," said the report from the Royal Society in London。

While the top 10 is still dominated by major Western powers, their share of published research papers is falling, it noted。

Brazil and India are among countries that are quickly making their way up the list。

"The US leads the world in research, producing 20 percent of the world's authorship of research papers, dominating world university league tables, and investing nearly $400 billion per year in public and private research and development," said the report, which was released on Monday。

"The UK, Japan, Germany and France each also command strong positions in the global league tables, producing high quality publications and attracting researchers to their world-class universities and research institutes."

China was in sixth place between 1999 and 2003 (with 4.4 percent of the total) but shot up to the second place with 10.2 percent for the years 2004 to 2008, overtaking several countries, including Japan, which had been in second place。

While the US remained in top spot, it saw its share shrink from 26.4 percent to 21.2 percent。

"China's rise up the rankings has been especially striking," said the report。

"China has heavily increased its investment in R&D (research and development)， with spending growing by 20 percent per year since 1999 to reach over $100 billion a year today."

The investment amounted to 1.44 percent of the country's GDP in 2007.

"China is also turning out huge numbers of science and engineering graduates, with 1.5 million leaving its universities in 2006," said the report。

The Royal Society's findings were in a report entitled Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st Century。