美聯儲收手之際 日本央行出手

One central bank giveth, and another taketh away.

一家央行收手了，另一家卻要出手。

Two days after the Federal Reserve ended its program of quantitative easing, the Bank of Japan has doubled down on the strategy with a surprise expansion of its program, in which it will now buy 80 trillion yen ($721 billion) worth of Japanese bonds each year with newly created money. If you’re keeping score, the era of central bank money printing is over (for now) in the United States and Britain, very much alive in Japan, and maybe-possibly-on-the-verge of arriving in the eurozone.

在美聯儲結束其量化寬鬆計劃兩天後，日本銀行(Bank of Japan)在這一戰略上押了更多籌碼，出人意料地擴大了量化寬鬆計劃。計劃擴大後，日本銀行每年將用新發行的貨幣，購買價值80萬億日元（約合4.4萬億元人民幣）的日本債券。留心的人都知道，央行印鈔時代在美國和英國已（暫時）結束，但在日本卻方興未艾，而且也許可能即將抵達歐元區。

The Bank of Japan’s new action took markets by surprise and drove a 4.8 percent gain in the Japanese stock market and smaller gains across the globe. It also offers a reminder — or perhaps a warning — of just how hard it will be to get the global economy out of its deflationary funk. And a cycle of bad political decision-making, across many countries, is the reason.

日本銀行的這一新舉動令市場驚訝不已，推動了日本股市上漲4.8%，並促使全球股市出現了規模略小的上揚。同時，它也給出了一個提醒——亦或是警告——表明讓全球經濟走出通貨緊縮的消沉情緒是多麼困難。而原因則是許多國家周而復始的糟糕政治決策。

The back story is this: At the start of 2013, a new government came into power in Japan, led by Shinzo Abe, promising a series of aggressive measures to jolt the Japanese economy out of its long period of stagnant growth and falling prices. A crucial part of that strategy was the appointment of Mr. Abe’s handpicked central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, who promised to do whatever it took to get inflation up to 2 percent in Japan.

背景故事是這樣的：2013年伊始，安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)領導的新一屆政府上臺，承諾採取一系列大膽措施，促使日本經濟走出長期的增長停滯和物價下跌。該戰略中至關重要的一步，是任命安倍晉三親自挑選的央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)。黑田東彥承諾將不遺餘力地讓日本的通貨膨脹水平漲至2%。

The initial results were promising. In early 2013 the yen fell on currency markets, and the Japanese stock market rose sharply. For the first time in two decades, there was palpable buzz around Japan’s economic prospects, both inside the country and around the world. “Abenomics” became a household term, at least in households that are interested in international economics.

初期的效果前景喜人。2013年年初，日元在貨幣市場下跌，日本股市大幅上漲。日本國內和全世界出現了對日本經濟前景的明顯關注，這是二十年來的首次。“安倍經濟學”成了一個家喻戶曉的說法，至少在對全球經濟感興趣的家庭裏是這樣。

But since then, neither the rest of the world, nor the rest of the Japanese government, has done much to help Mr. Kuroda.

但自那時以來，世界其他地方和日本政府內部其他機構，均未採取太多措施幫助黑田東彥。

Within Japan, the fiscal authorities raised a consumption tax this year, aiming to rein in budget deficits in a country with the highest public debt in the world relative to the size of its economy. That created a steep economic contraction in the second quarter, weakness that persisted through the summer.

在日本國內，財政機構今年提高了消費稅，旨在控制預算赤字。相對於其經濟規模，日本的公共債務是全世界最高的。這導致二季度日本經濟嚴重萎縮，這種疲軟一直貫穿今年夏季。

Meanwhile, Europe has dithered as its economy has ground to a halt, and many major emerging economies have slowed. With the rest of the world slowing down and supplies of oil and many other raw materials rising, the price of most major commodities has fallen sharply since the summer.

與此同時，隨着經濟逐漸停滯，歐洲猶豫了，許多主要新興經濟體也放慢了增速。自今夏以來，在世界其他地方增長放緩，原油和許多其他原材料供應增加的情況下，大部分主要商品價格大幅下跌。

So Mr. Kuroda faced slumping Japanese economic growth because of decisions his own government made and downward pressure on prices due to things that happened in the rest of the world. The credibility of his promise to do whatever it took to get to 2 percent inflation was in doubt.

鑑於日本政府做出的決策，以及世界其他地方發生的事情對價格造成下行壓力，黑田東彥面臨日本經濟增長下滑的問題。黑田東彥的承諾——將竭盡所能達到2%的通貨膨脹目標——的可信性遭到質疑。

Hence the surprise move Friday. It was a close call — the vote on the bank's policy committee was 5 to 4, not like the unanimity of Mr. Kuroda’s earlier tenure. But the theater of it may have been helpful in the psychological aspect of persuading people in Japan that their central bank really is serious about getting higher inflation, and that citizens should make their spending and investment decisions accordingly. Inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling.

因此日本在週五做出令人震驚的舉動。與黑田東彥早前擔任行長時獲得一致認可不同，該舉措在日本央行政策委員會以5比4的投票結果僥倖獲得通過。但此事的戲劇性可能有助於在心理上說服日本民衆相信，日本央行真的在認真推高通貨膨脹率，因此日本民衆應該做出消費及投資決定。通脹預期傾向於自我應驗。

But while it is nice to see boldness from one of the world’s leading central banks — a sharp contrast with the sluggishness of the European Central Bank in responding to dire threats to the eurozone economy — the move does underscore a broader problem that has haunted the global economy the last several years.

雖然看到世界主要央行之一採取大膽舉措是一件令人高興的事情——與歐洲央行遲緩應對歐元區經濟面臨的嚴重威脅形成鮮明對比，但此舉的確突顯了一個在過去幾年中困擾全球經濟的廣泛問題。

Central banks have been the only players in town trying to boost global growth. In the United States, Congress from 2011 to 2013 ignored the pleas of Ben Bernanke, then the Fed chairman, to avoid sharp spending cuts that would depress growth. Right now, the German government is said to be furious at the E.C.B. president, Mario Draghi, for his calls for more public spending by Germany and other financially strong European nations. And the Bank of Japan is now facing a harder job because of the Japanese parliament’s eagerness to raise consumption taxes.

央行是唯一努力促進全球經濟發展的一股力量。從2011年到2013年，美國國會(Congress)忽視了時任美聯儲主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的請求——避免會抑制經濟增長的大幅開支削減。目前，德國政府據稱對歐洲央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)感到不滿，因爲他要求德國及其他財力雄厚的歐洲國家增加公共支出。由於日本議會急於提高消費稅，日本央行目前面臨一項更加困難的工作。

In each case, the central bank has gotten little support from its government in trying to encourage growth, and carried more of the burden itself, often in the form of yet more quantitative easing, which has tended to sharply boost asset prices in the financial markets but has had much more questionable effects on job creation and wages.

在各個國家中，央行在設法推動經濟發展的過程中幾乎沒有得到政府的支持，自身承擔了更多的負擔——通常採取更多量化寬鬆政策，此類政策往往會大幅推高金融市場的資產價格，但給創造就業及工資方面帶來了比較值得懷疑的效果。

We’ve gotten used to central bankers with names like Kuroda, Bernanke, Yellen and Draghi being the primary actors trying to get the global economy on track. Their job would be much easier if their counterparts holding elected office showed the same enthusiasm.

我們已經習慣了由黑田東彥、伯克南、耶倫和德拉吉等等央行行長來充當使全球經濟迴歸正軌的主角。如果與他們在同等位置上的那些民選官員也能展現出同樣的熱情，他們的工作會容易很多。