2020年中國將成全球最大跨境投資者

China will become the biggest cross-border investor by the end of this decade, with global offshore assets tripling from $6.4tn at present to nearly $20tn by 2020, say researchers.

研究人員稱，到2020年中國將成爲世界最大跨境投資者，全球離岸資產將增至現有水平的三倍，即從目前的6.4萬億美元增至近20萬億美元。

While much of the total will be in the form of foreign exchange reserves and portfolio investment, a growing share will come from direct Chinese investment in western-developed countries, according to a joint report by the economic research company Rhodium Group and the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies.

由經濟研究公司榮鼎諮詢(Rhodium Group)和柏林墨卡託中國研究中心(Mercator Institute for China Studies)聯合發表的一份報告表示，雖然上述總數中的相當大一部分將以外匯儲備和組合投資爲形式，但中國對西方發達國家的直接投資將佔據越來越大的份額。

Based on the experiences of other countries, China’s global stock of outbound foreign direct investment, which includes investing in corporate mergers, acquisitions and start-ups, will increase from $744bn to as much as $2tn by 2020.

根據其他國家的經驗，中國在全球的對外直接投資(FDI)存量（包括對企業兼併、收購和初創企業的投資）將從7440億美元增至2020年的高達2萬億美元。

The report’s projections are valuable because official cross-border outbound FDI statistics from China and recipient countries are widely seen as being of poor quality and do not give an accurate picture of real investment flows. In barely a decade, Chinese outbound FDI has gone from almost nothing to $100bn a year, making it one of the three biggest exporters of direct investment globally.

該報告的預測是有價值的，因爲來自中國及其對外直接投資目的地國家的官方跨境統計數據被廣泛視爲質量低劣，不能準確反映實際投資流動。在短短10年裏，中國的對外直接投資從幾乎爲零增至每年1000億美元，使它成爲全球三大直接投資輸出國之一。

Europe, in particular, has welcomed the Chinese largesse with open arms, especially in the wake of the global financial crisis and sluggish eurozone economic growth.

歐洲特別歡迎中國方面的出手闊綽，尤其是在全球金融危機爆發和歐元區經濟增長陷入低迷之後。

However, the report warns that surging Chinese investment will also require a change in attitude from recipient markets and their politicians to take full advantage of the opportunities and contain the risks.

然而，該報告警告說，來自中國的投資大幅增長，也將需要此類投資的目的地市場和政治人物改變態度，以在充分利用機遇的同時遏制風險。

“Characteristics such as the size, growth and complementarity of the Chinese economy create unique opportunities for Europe,” the report’s authors said.

“中國經濟的規模、增長和互補等特徵，爲歐洲帶來一些獨特機遇，”報告作者們表示。

“At the same time, some specific concerns that are related to the nature of China’s political and economic system, for example subsidies, China’s authoritarian political system and lack of openness to [foreign direct investment] in China, create particular challenges.”

“與此同時，有關中國政治和經濟制度性質的某些具體關切，比如補貼，比如中國的威權政治體制以及中國本身對（外商直接投資）缺乏開放性，也帶來一些特殊的挑戰。”

While early Chinese investments focused on energy and natural resource assets in developing countries, investors are now looking to the US and Europe for opportunities.

雖然早期的中國對外投資集中於發展中國家的能源和自然資源資產，但投資者目前轉向美國和歐洲物色機會。

Between 2000 and 2014, Chinese companies spent 46bn on 1,047 direct investments in the 28 EU countries, with most of the transactions coming in since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

2000年至2014年期間，中國企業斥資460億歐元，在歐盟28個國家進行了1047項直接投資，其中大部分交易是在2008-09年全球金融危機爆發以來做成的。

The UK is by far the biggest recipient of Chinese direct investment, with a cumulative total of 12.2bn over that period. Germany is second with 6.9bn and France third with 5.9bn.

英國遙遙領先地得到了最多的中國對外直接投資，在上述期間累計得到122億歐元。德國位居第二，得到69億歐元，法國排在第三位，得到59億歐元。

Following a drop in 2013 to 6bn, from more than 7bn each year in 2011 and 2012, Chinese investment in Europe came surging back in 2014, reaching a record high of 14bn for the whole year.

中國對歐洲的直接投資在2011年和2012年都超過70億歐元，2013年回落至60億歐元，但在2014年強勁反彈，創下140億歐元的紀錄。

Europe’s energy, automotive, food and real estate sectors attracted the most Chinese money.

歐洲的能源、汽車、食品和地產等行業吸引了最多的中國資金。

Despite the recent sharp rise and heady predictions for Chinese outbound investment in the future, the country is still trying to catch up.

中國的對外直接投資儘管近年迅猛上漲，而且未來預測令人頭暈目眩，但實際上中國仍在努力追趕。

“China is so unique and important because it is already a major global investor and it has the potential to become the single most important driver of global FDI growth over the next decade,” the report said.

“中國如此獨特如此重要，因爲它已經是一個重要的全球投資者，並有望成爲未來10年全球FDI增長的最重要驅動因素，”該報告稱。

While China is the world’s biggest trader of goods, its share of global financial cross-border assets and liabilities barely reached 3.4 per cent by 2011.

儘管中國是世界上最大的商品貿易國，但其2011年在全球金融跨境資產及負債所佔份額只達到3.4%。

Today, its stock of outbound FDI as a proportion of gross domestic product stands at just 7 per cent, compared with 38 per cent for the US, 20 per cent for Japan and 47 per cent for Germany.

如今，中國的對外直接投資存量佔國內生產總值(GDP)之比只有區區7%，相比之下，美國的這個比率爲38%，日本達到20%，德國達到47%。