如何投資中國消費熱潮 How to invest in the Chinese consumer

China’s economic output increased by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter, year-on-year — its most sluggish performance since the global financial crisis — according to data published this week.

本週公佈的數據顯示，第三季度中國經濟產出同比增長6.9%，這是自全球金融危機以來最緩慢的增長。

But behind this lacklustre number, China’s consumers are spending more and the job market appears robust (see charts), which makes certain sectors of the economy a potentially attractive investment.

但是，在低迷的數字背後，中國的消費者支出日益增長，就業市場看起來很健康（見下面兩個圖表），這使得中國經濟中的某些行業潛在地具有投資吸引力。

Five years ago, China achieved double-digit growth, which the government created by pouring debt into new railways, roads and bridges and allowing abundant credit to create a property bubble.

5年前，由於政府通過舉債大力興建鐵路、公路和橋樑，允許大量信貸在房地產行業滋生泡沫，中國經濟增速達到了兩位數。

While the stimulus investing has slowed, China’s retailers, travel and tourism groups and passenger transport companies that make up the so-called service sector are still doing well. This services sector grew 8.6 per cent year-on-year, in the third quarter, up from 8.4 per cent in the first half.

儘管刺激性投資已經放緩，中國的零售商、旅行和旅遊組織以及客運公司——它們屬於所謂的服務業——仍然運行良好。第三季度，服務業產值同比增長8.6%，增速較上半年的8.4%有所加快。

“The Chinese economy is undoubtedly shifting towards consumption,” said Julian Evans Pritchard, analyst at Capital Economics. “Chinese statistics can be unreliable, but on a number of measures we monitor, from passenger rail transport to the distances people are travelling, to air travel to courier services to electricity consumption, the services sector is healthy.”

“中國經濟毫無疑問正在向消費轉變，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)稱，“中國的統計數字或許不可靠，但是根據我們監測的許多指標——從鐵路客運到人們外出旅遊的路程長短，從航空旅行到快遞服務和用電——服務業正處於健康狀態。”

Why is China’s services sector doing relatively well?

中國服務業爲何表現相對良好？

With little in the way of a traditional welfare state, China has long been a nation of savers. But spending on non-essential goods and services has been on the rise. Caravan parks are growing in popularity, while China accounted for $4.8bn of box office receipts last year, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. The government has also thrown its weight behind leisure spending as it helps rebalance the economy away from investment. In July, Chinese state news agency Xinhua publicised a “camping market” in the hills outside the western Chinese city of Chongqing, where stallHolders sell goods, from “designer wedding dresses to Spanish wine,” from their tents.

與傳統的福利國家不同，中國長久以來一直是儲蓄國。但是，中國消費者在非必需商品和服務上的支出一直處於上升態勢。房車營地日益流行。據美國電影協會(Motion Picture Association of America)數據顯示，去年中國的電影票房收入達到48億美元。中國政府也在大力支持休閒性消費，因爲這有助於中國經濟再平衡，減少對投資的依賴。7月，中國國家通訊社新華社對西部城市重慶郊外山區的“宿營市場”進行了報道，那裏的商販在帳篷中出售從“設計師婚紗到西班牙紅酒”等各式商品。

Ok, so how do I invest in that?

好吧，那麼我如何在這方面投資？

That is the hard part. Because of weak accounting and corporate governance standards in China, and the risk that a company or an entire industry can suddenly fall out of favour with the Communist Party leadership, buying shares in Chinese companies is a high-risk activity.

難點就在這裏。由於中國的會計及公司治理標準較不完善，而且一家企業乃至整個行業都有可能突然失寵於共產黨領導層，因此購買中國公司的股票是一項高風險投資。

Gome provides a case study in what can go wrong. The electricals retailer was founded by Huang Guangyu, an entrepreneur who was once China’s richest man. He is now one of the country’s richest prisoners, having been jailed in 2010 for 14 years for insider trading and bribery, which are punishments that China’s politically controlled courts impose selectively. The company remains in good health, and superficially offers a good consumer growth story, as more Chinese households are buying washing machines and fridges. But in July, Gome’s shares plunged 15 per cent in a day after the retailer bought some assets from the jailed Mr Huang at what analysts said was an inflated price.

國美電器(Gome)就是一個實例。這家電器零售商由黃光裕創立，他曾經是中國首富。而如今，黃光裕成了中國最富有的囚犯之一，他於2010年因內幕交易和賄賂而被判有期徒刑14年，這是受政治控制的中國法庭選擇性施加的懲罰。該公司如今仍然運行良好，表面上看來是一個很好的消費增長故事，因爲越來越多的中國家庭購買洗衣機和冰箱。但是，7月國美從獄中的黃光裕手中購買了部分資產後，股價一天之內暴跌了15%——據分析師表示，收購價格過高。

Can I invest in assets that track China consumer spending?

我可以投資追蹤中國消費者支出的資產嗎？

Cautious investors can gain exposure to growth without actually investing in Chinese shares, though this used to be much easier. In the days of double-digit growth fuelled by fixed asset investment, global or Australian miners of materials such as copper and iron ore were a popular choice.

謹慎的投資者可以在不實際投資中國股票的情況下享受中國增長帶來的收益，儘管這在過去更加容易。在固定資產投資推動中國經濟兩位數增長的時代，全球尤其是澳大利亞開採銅、鐵礦石等資源的礦商都是熱門的投資選擇。

Tom Stevenson, Fidelity investment director, says it is worth looking at Japanese companies that benefit from growth in Chinese tourism, as Japan has better corporate governance and accounting standards than less developed countries in Asia.

富達(Fidelity)投資總監湯姆史蒂文森(Tom Stevenson)稱，可以看看受益於中國旅遊發展的日本企業，因爲日本的公司治理及會計標準高於亞洲較不發達國家。

Tempted by the weak yen, Chinese tourists have been flocking to Japan to buy basic goods they traditionally prefer purchasing abroad, such as vitamins, nappies and toilet seats. Kao Corporation, a Japanese group which makes a brand of nappies called Merries that are popular in China, is currently a darling of western asset managers. Its shares, however, reflect that enthusiasm, currently trading on 32 times forecast earnings.

受日元貶值的吸引，中國遊客蜂擁前往日本購買他們一般傾向於在海外購買的日常用品，如維生素、尿片和馬桶圈等。日本花王集團(KaoCorporation)是在中國大受歡迎的尿片品牌妙而舒(Merries)的生產商，該集團眼下正是西方資產管理公司的寵兒。然而，花王股票的預期市盈率達到32倍，這也反映出市場熱情。

Are there any managed funds I can use?

現在中國有我可以利用的管理基金嗎？

There are many, with scores of managers prioritising the consumer sector.

有很多，其中許多基金管理公司都很看重消費領域。

China has humbled many a professional investor, though. A China fund run by Fidelity’s Anthony Bolton, who was considered a stockpicking guru in the UK, did less well than investors expected. When he retired two years ago, he admitted he had got many things wrong about the market.

不過，很多專業投資者在中國遭遇慘敗。由富達的安東尼波頓(Anthony Bolton)在中國管理的一隻基金，表現遜於投資者預期。波頓在英國被認爲是選股大師。兩年前退休時，他承認對中國市場很多事情都想錯了。

There are some managers of pan-Asian funds who are playing the Chinese consumer boom without owning too many risky Chinese companies. One is Angus Tulloch, who runs the First State Asia Pacific Leaders fund and whose second-biggest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, a huge supplier of the chips that power Chinese smartphones. His third-largest is Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison, which owns a clutch of retailers in the territory, from drugstore Watsons to electricals chain Fortress, that are popular with shoppers visiting from mainland China.

現在有一些泛亞洲基金的經理正在利用中國消費熱潮，卻對高風險的中國公司持股不多。杜樂奇(Angus Tulloch)就是其中一位，他管理着First State Asia Pacific Leaders基金。他持有股份第二多的企業是臺積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp)。臺積電是助力中國智能手機行業發展的芯片的供應商巨頭。杜樂奇持股第三多的是香港的長江和記實業(CK Hutchison Holdings)。長江和記在香港擁有衆多零售商，從藥店屈臣氏(Watsons)到電器連鎖商豐澤(Fortress)，這些零售商很受中國內地來港購物者的青睞。

Mr Tulloch’s fund charges a hefty initial entry fee of 4 per cent, followed by a 1.6 per cent annual fee. In the past 12 months it has returned minus 6.8 per cent. Trustnet, however, points out that Mr Tulloch has “over a long track record” outperformed his peers “more often than not”.

杜樂奇的基金收取4%的高額入場費，之後收取1.6%的年費。在過去12個月中，該基金的回報率爲-6.8%。然而，金融數據提供商TrustNet指出，依據“很長一段時間的記錄”，杜樂奇“經常”跑贏同行。

Are there any exchange traded funds?

有交易所交易基金(ETF)嗎？

Research has regularly shown that most active fund managers cannot beat the market, and of course any star manager’s past performance is no indication of how they will fare in the future. Exchange-traded funds, which are lower-cost instruments that passively track a basket of stocks, are another option. According to the ETFDB database, there is one such tracker available, the Global X China Consumer ETF. It is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, however, so British investors may want to seek advice from a stockbroker or financial adviser to decide whether it is suitable for them.

常有研究表明，最主動的基金經理無法打敗市場，當然任何明星經理過去的表現都不能代表他們未來的表現。被動追蹤一籃子股票的低成本工具ETF，是另外一種選擇。ETFDB數據庫顯示，在中國有一個可供使用的此類工具——“中國消費者指數ETF-Global X”。不過，該ETF在紐約證交所上市，因此英國投資者或許希望諮詢股票經紀人或金融顧問，以決定該ETF是否適合他們。