市場力量打破沙特實力神話 Even the Saudis cannot defy market forces forever
The Saudis blinked. The latest deal — an agreement with Russia to cap oil output at January levels if they are joined by other large producers — will not rebalance the oil market immediately. The surge in prices last week was premature. But they blinked and that is all important. The myth of Saudi power is broken.
沙特人“眨眼”了。最新的協議——與俄羅斯談妥，如果其他產油大國配合，將把石油產量凍結在1月水平——將不會立即實現石油市場的再平衡。上週的油價飆升來得太早了。但他們眨眼了，那是極其重要的。沙特實力的神話被打破了。
The real steps necessary to rebalance the market are yet to come. Saudi production must come down. Others may join in the process but a reduction of 3m barrels a day is necessary and most of that will have to come from Saudi Arabia. Stocks must be run off. That will take time. Iran must be welcomed back into the market. That process will be slow and even estimates that Iran can pump another 400,000 barrels a day this year look high. But Iran will come back eventually and need to be accommodated. The interests of other Opec member states, such as Venezuela and Algeria, must also be taken into account. The Saudis’ lack of respect for their fellow Opec producers over the past year has shaken many traditional alliances. The kingdom does not have that many allies.
推動石油市場再平衡的真正措施尚未出現。沙特產量必須降下來。其他產油國或許會加入減產行列，但每日產量減少300萬桶是必要的，其中大部分減產將不得不由沙特承擔。庫存必須被消耗掉。那將需要時間。必須歡迎伊朗回到市場。這個過程將是緩慢的，即使今年伊朗每天再向市場增加40萬桶供應的估計看來也偏高。但伊朗終將恢復產油大國地位，需要給它留出空間。還必須考慮其他歐佩克(OPEC)成員國（比如委內瑞拉和阿爾及利亞）的利益。過去一年裏，沙特人對歐佩克其他產油國不夠尊重，這已動搖了該國的許多傳統聯盟。沙特王國目前的盟友並不多。
China’s economic slowdown does not help, nor does austerity in Europe. But recessions end, and the combination of the coming elections in France and Germany, plus the disruptive impact of the migration crisis, should lead to more expansionist economic policies.
無論是中國經濟減速，還是歐洲實行緊縮，都於事無補。但經濟衰退總會結束，而法國和德國將要迎來的大選加上移民危機的破壞性影響，應該會催生更多擴張性的經濟政策。
Even if Saudis blink again and cut production on a serious scale there are so many downward pressures that it is hard, short of a revolution in Riyadh, to see prices rising above $50 for three years or even more. Beyond that, potential supply growth still looks stronger than the likely growth in demand.
即便沙特人再次“眨眼”，進行實質性減產，但市場下行壓力這麼多，除非利雅得爆發革命，否則我們在未來3年乃至更久將看不到油價升至每桶50美元上方。展望更遙遠的未來，潛在的供應增量看來仍高於可能的需求增量。
Within Saudi Arabia, the political implications of what has happened over the past week are not yet clear. The change of policy is a humiliation for Ali al-Naimi, oil minister. Power has shifted, although it is not yet clear who the winners will be.
在沙特阿拉伯內部，過去一週事態變化的政治影響尚不明朗。此次改變政策讓該國石油部長阿里納伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)蒙羞。實力已發生轉移，儘管目前還看不出誰將成爲贏家。
More important for the long term is the shift of power in the oil market. The Saudis were not able to force the US shale industry out of business. The pain has been considerable, especially to the services sector but in the end the companies were able to cut costs in the US and elsewhere. The industry has had two bad years but it is still standing.
長遠來看更重要的是石油市場的實力轉移。沙特未能迫使美國頁岩業破產。痛苦是巨大的，尤其是在油田服務業，但到最後，美國和其他地區的公司都想方設法削減成本。石油行業度過了難熬的兩年，但仍屹立不倒。
Market forces are certainly winners from the shift of power. Future prices will be set by the balance of supply and demand, not by decisions taken by any one producer or group of producers. There are multiple sources of supply with no sense of scarcity because technology is opening so many new opportunities. Of these, the most important is the potential growth of oil produced from shale rock.
市場力量肯定是這種實力轉移的贏家。未來的油價將取決於供需平衡，而不是哪一個產油國或產油國集團作出的決策。由於科技發展開啓了這麼多新機遇，目前供應來源非常多，不存在短缺問題。當然，最重要的石油增產潛能來自頁岩。
On the other side of the market, demand is flattening out, with growth slowing even in the emerging markets. The latest figures show that Chinese demand in December fell year on year. Across the world demand continues to creep up but the pace is much slower than it was and total consumption may well never reach 100mbd.
在市場另一端，隨着新興市場增長放緩，需求正逐漸趨緩。最新數據顯示，去年12月中國需求出現同比下降。從全球範圍看，需求在繼續緩慢增加，但增速比以往放慢很多，每日總消耗量很可能永遠達不到1億桶。
The balance of supply and demand will set the price, forcing producers to respond by cutting output if the price falls below their comfort level. That prospect is limited, however, by the inability of most producers to tolerate cuts in production for long. Almost all the oil-exporting nations need to maximise their output and trade to remain solvent. They are trapped and must take any price they can get. Wise producers will begin the long-postponed process of economic diversification. There are signs that the Saudis are doing that. Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and others still seem incapable of change.
供需平衡將決定價格，迫使產油國在油價跌破其舒適水平後減產。然而，這一前景是有限的，因爲大多數產油國根本承受不了持續減產。幾乎所有石油出口國都需要維持最大產量和出口量，才能保持償付能力。它們陷入了困境，無論什麼價格都得接受。明智的產油國將啓動拖延已久的經濟多元化進程。目前有一些跡象表明沙特在這麼做。俄羅斯、尼日利亞和委內瑞拉等產油國看來仍無力推行改革。
The lesson of the past two years is that in an open global economy no one can defy the power of market forces for long. For the Saudis, the acceptance of the limits of their power must be very painful. They will not be the last to find that they cannot defy economic gravity.
過去兩年的教訓是，在開放的全球經濟中，誰也不能長久地抗拒市場力量的威力。對沙特而言，接受自己實力的侷限肯定非常痛苦。沙特將不是最後一個發現自己無法抗拒經濟重力的國家。
The writer is visiting professor and chair of the Kings Policy Institute at Kings College
本文作者是倫敦大學國王學院(King’s College London)國王政策研究所(King's Policy Institute)訪問教授兼主席
