如何重塑全球一體化 Global trade should be rebuilt from the bottom up

Since the end of the second world war, a broad consensus in support of global economic integration as a force for peace and prosperity has been a pillar of the international order. From global trade agreements to the EU project; from the Bretton Woods institutions to the removal of pervasive capital controls; from ex-panded foreign direct investment to increased flows of peoples across borders, the overall direction has been clear. Driven by domestic economic progress, by technologies such as containerised shipping and the internet that promote integration, and by legislative changes within and between nations, the world has grown smaller and more closely connected.

二戰結束後，一個廣泛共識成爲了國際秩序的一個支柱——這個共識是，支持把全球經濟一體化作爲促進和平與繁榮的力量。從全球貿易協定到歐盟一體化計劃，從佈雷頓森林機構到消除原本普遍存在的資本管制，從外商直接投資(FDI)增加到人員跨境流動增多——總體方向是明確的。在國內經濟發展、集裝箱船運和互聯網等促進一體化的技術、以及國家內部和國家之間立法改革的推動下，世界變得更小、更加緊密聯繫。

This has proved more successful than could reasonably have been hoped. We have not seen a war between leading powers. Global living standards have risen faster than at any point in history. And material progress has coincided with even more rapid progress in combating hunger, empowering women, promoting literacy and extending life. A world that will have more smartphones than adults within a few years is a world in which more is possible for more people than ever before.

這證明一體化的成功已超過了合理的期望。大國之間沒有再發生過戰爭。世界各地人民生活水平的提升比歷史上任何時候都要快。在物質發展的同時，人類在戰勝飢餓、賦予婦女權力、提高識字率和延長壽命等方面甚至進步得更快。再過幾年，智能手機數量將超過全球成年人數量。這個世界爲更多的人提供了更多的可能，這是以往任何時候都不能比的。

Yet a revolt against global integration is under way in the west. The four leading candidates for president of the US — Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — all oppose the principal free-trade initiative of this period: the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Proposals by Mr Trump, the Republican frontrunner, to wall off Mexico, abrogate trade agreements and persecute Muslims are far more popular than he is. The movement for a British exit from the EU commands substantial support. Under pressure from an influx of refugees, Europe’s commitment to open borders appears to be crumbling. In large part because of political constraints, the growth of the international financial institutions has not kept pace with the growth of the global economy.

然而，西方卻出現了反對全球一體化的趨勢。美國總統競選中的四名主要參選人——希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)、伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)、唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)——都反對這段時期以來最主要的自由貿易倡議——《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)。共和黨內最有可能成爲候選人的特朗普提議用牆把墨西哥隔開、廢除貿易協定和迫害穆斯林，這些點子比他本人要受歡迎得多。英國的脫歐運動得到了大力支持。在大量難民涌入的壓力下，歐洲開放邊界的承諾似乎就要化爲泡影。主要由於政治因素的制約，國際金融機構的發展跟不上全球經濟增長的步伐。

Certainly a substantial part of what is behind the resistance is lack of knowledge. No one thanks global trade for the fact that their pay cheque buys twice as much in clothes, toys and other goods as it otherwise would. Those who succeed as exporters tend to credit their own prowess, not international agreements. So there is certainly a case for our leaders and business communities to educate people about the benefits of global integration. But at this late date, with the trends moving the wrong way, it is hard to be optimistic about such efforts.

當然，反對一體化背後的一大因素是知識的匱乏。沒有人因爲他們的工資能買到的服裝、玩具和其他商品多了一倍而感謝全球貿易。成功的出口商往往把原因歸結爲自己的能力，而不是國際協議。所以，我們的領導人和商界人士顯然有理由教育民衆理解全球一體化的好處。但是，當前時機已經太晚，趨勢正朝着錯誤方向移動，這類努力能有什麼效果不容樂觀。

The core of the revolt against global integration, though, is not ignorance. It is a sense, not wholly unwarranted, that it is a project carried out by elites for elites with little consideration for the interests of ordinary people — who see the globalisation agenda as being set by big companies playing off one country against another. They read the revelations in the Panama Papers and conclude that globalisation offers a fortunate few the opportunities to avoid taxes and regulations that are not available to the rest. And they see the disintegration that accompanies global integration, as communities suffer when big employers lose to foreign competitors.

不過，導致反對一體化情緒的核心因素並不是無知，而是一種並非無端形成的觀念：人們覺得，全球一體化是精英階層推行的，也服務於精英階層，基本沒有考慮普通民衆的利益。他們認爲，全球化議程是大公司制定的，目的是挑起不同國家之間的爭鬥，以從中獲利。他們讀到了“巴拿馬文件”被揭露的內容，認定全球化不過是爲幸運的少數人提供逃避納稅和監管的機會，其他人則享受不到這種待遇。他們看到了伴隨全球一體化而來的破壞，當國內大型僱主競爭不過外國對手時，就會造成社會後果。

What will happen next — and what should happen? Elites can continue pursuing and defending integration, hoping to win sufficient popular support — but, on the evidence of the US presidential campaign and the Brexit debate, this strategy may have run its course. This is likely to result in a hiatus in new global integration and efforts to preserve what is in place while relying on technology and growth in the developing world to drive further integration.

接下來會發生什麼？應該會發生什麼？精英們可能會繼續追求和捍衛一體化，希望能爭取足夠多的民意支持——但是，從美國總統競選和英國退歐辯論的情況來看，這種策略可能已經山窮水盡。這很可能導致新的全球一體化停下腳步，使得在維護既有成果的同時依靠科技和發展中國家的增長來繼續推進一體化的努力發生中斷。

The precedents, notably the period between the first and second world wars, are hardly encouraging about unmanaged globalisation succeeding with neither a strong underwriter of the system nor strong global institutions.

歷史先例、特別是從一戰到二戰之間那段時期的經驗，並不能促使人們認爲，在全球經濟體系沒有強大的擔保人、也沒有強大的全球性機構的情況下，“無管理”的全球化能夠獲得成功。

Much more promising is this idea: the promotion of global integration can become a bottom-up rather than a top-down project. The emphasis can shift from promoting integration to managing its consequences.

這樣的想法會更有希望：推進全球一體化可以“自下而上”、而不是“自上而下”地進行。重點可以從推進一體化，轉向管理其後果。

This would mean a shift from international trade agreements to international harmonisation agreements, where issues such as labour rights and environmental protection would take precedence over issues related to empowering foreign producers. It would also mean devoting as much political capital to the trillions that escape tax or evade regulation through cross-border capital flows as we now devote to trade agreements. And it would mean an emphasis on the challenges of middle-class parents everywhere who doubt, but still hope desperately, that their kids can have better lives than they did.

這意味着把注意力從國際貿易協定，轉向國際和諧協議(harmonisation agreements)，在後一種協議中，勞工權利、環境保護等問題的重要性要超過與授權給國外生產商相關的問題。這也意味着，對於藉助跨境資本流動來逃避納稅或繞過監管的巨量資金，我們要投入足夠多的政治資本來應對，不能亞於我們目前投向貿易協定的政治資本。這將意味着，要把重點放在世界各地中產階級父母所面對的挑戰上，他們懷疑——但仍非常希望——他們的孩子可以過上比他們更好的生活。