房地產或迎短暫調整期 商品房銷售有望創新高

China's housing sales are expected to reach a record high in 2016, though the growth of real estate investment may slow, said a report by a research group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

中國社會科學院一個研究小組近日發佈的報告稱，儘管房地產投資增幅或將趨緩，2016年我國商品房銷售有望創歷史新高。

After a short-term slump, China's real estate market has been rising since mid-2015, heating up rapidly in the first quarter this year.

在短期暴跌之後，2015年年中以來，我國房地產市場步入上升週期，今年一季度迅速升溫。

According to the report, housing inventory in the first half of 2016 fell by 50 million square meters from the same period in 2015, but the growth in sales slowed slightly in May.

根據報告，2016年上半年商品房庫存同比降低0.5億平方米，但今年5月，商品房銷售增幅出現了微幅收窄。

The report sees China's real estate market having a short adjustment period from the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017.

報告預計，今年下半年到明年上半年，我國房地產市場將迎來一個短期調整期。

During this period, price increases will slow if there's no drastic change in the macroeconomic situation and in major policies, the report said.

報告稱，在此期間，如果宏觀經濟形勢和大的政方針不出現重大變化，房價增幅將回落。

"The cycle for China's real estate market is about two to three years, within which the rising period only lasts about one year," said Ni Pengfei, a researcher at the National Academy of Economic Strategy at CASS and the main author of the report. "By the middle of 2016 the one-year period of increasing prices will end."

該報告的主要作者、在中國社會科學院財經戰略研究院的研究員倪鵬飛表示：“中國房地產市場的週期大約是兩到三年，在這個週期內，上升期只持續一年左右。到2016年年中，一年期的價格增長將結束。”

Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, said the upcoming year will be a transition from price increases to a decline in housing prices.

世界經濟與政治研究所的研究員張明表示，即將到來的一年將是房價從上漲到下降過渡的一年。

The report suggested that policymakers should aim to avoid drastic adjustments and maintain long-term, sustainable and stable development of the real estate market.

此外，該報告建議，政策制定者應旨在避免大幅調整，並保持房地產市場長期持續穩定的發展。