孫正義的祕密賭局 軟銀收購ARM的前前後後

The calm of Stuart Chambers’ sailing holiday off the Turkish coast was shattered this month when Masayoshi Sonflew in with an armed escort and an offer for Arm Holdings, the UK’s pre-eminent technology company.

斯圖爾特•錢伯斯(Stuart Chambers)在土耳其海岸外平靜的航海假期被一個人打斷了——這個人就是孫正義(Masayoshi Son)，他在武裝護衛的陪同下找到了錢伯斯，還帶來了對英國知名科技公司ARM控股(Arm Holdings)的收購要約。

The charismatic SoftBank founder, who built the Japanese company into a global telecoms and internet conglomerate, had come to meet Arm’s chairman in Marmaris, the seaside resort from which Turkey’s president fled on Friday to face down an attempted coup.

富有魅力的孫正義是軟銀(SoftBank)創始人，他將這家日本公司打造成了跨國電信及互聯網企業集團。爲見到ARM董事長錢伯斯，孫正義來到了土耳其海濱度假勝地馬爾馬里斯(Marmaris)——土耳其總統上週五正是從這裏倉皇離開，去處理一場政變圖謀。

Mr Son flew in by private jet, accompanied by his security detail because of the earlier terrorist attack on Istanbul airport. As they sat beside the glistening Mediterranean on July 3, Mr Chambers was unprepared for him to deliver a formal takeover offer.

由於不久前伊斯坦布爾機場遭到了恐怖襲擊，孫正義在安保人員的陪同下搭乘私人飛機而來。7月3日，當他們坐在波光閃閃的地中海之濱時，錢伯斯毫無防備地收到了孫正義提出的正式收購要約。

What started over a long lunch at the waterfront Pineapple Restaurant resulted in victory for Mr Son just 13 days later, when the 58-year-old arrived in London on Monday to reveal the friendly ￡24.3bn all-cash deal for Cambridge-based Arm.

始於海濱Pineapple餐廳一頓耗時很長的午餐換來了孫正義13天后的勝利。本週一抵達倫敦時，58歲的孫正義公佈了以全現金243億英鎊對總部位於劍橋的ARM進行友好收購的協議。

It would be the biggest Asian takeover of a British company, the largest European tech deal to date and Mr Son’s biggest acquisition since he founded SoftBank in 1981.

這筆交易將是亞洲對英國企業規模最大的一筆收購，是歐洲迄今最大的一筆科技交易，也是孫正義自1981年創立軟銀以來進行的最大一筆收購。

Mr Son had called the UK’s prime minister, Theresa May, and chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, a day earlier, to ensure that the British government would not present any obstacles. He laid out a series of intentions, agreed during the breakneck negotiations, including a legally binding commitment to double the size of Arm’s UK workforce.

孫正義在交易宣佈前一天曾致電英國首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)及財政大臣菲利普•哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)，以確保英國政府不會設置任何障礙。他列出了一系列打算（已在一系列閃電談判中達成一致），包括一項具有法律約束力的承諾——將ARM在英國的就業崗位擴大一倍。

Mr Son had been plotting the biggest bet of his career for some time, telling the Financial Times in an interview that he had admired Arm for years. More than 15bn chips are shipped with its designs annually and Arm already dominates the smartphone market. Mr Son, a self-confident tech evangelist, sees it playing a crucial role in the next big wave in technology, the so-called internet of things.

孫正義策劃職業生涯這次最大的賭博已有一段時間，他曾在一次採訪中對英國《金融時報》表示，自己對ARM傾慕已久。採用ARM設計的芯片每年出貨量達150億枚，該公司已主導了智能手機市場。自信的科技佈道者孫正義認爲，ARM將在下一波科技大潮（所謂物聯網）中發揮至關重要的作用。

“Every street light will be interconnected to the internet because we can save when [a] car is not passing,” Mr Son said at the Four Seasons hotel near London’s Hyde Park. “Automobiles will all be connected so driverless car[s will be] much safer. All things will be connected and what is the biggest common denominator? That is Arm.”

在倫敦海德公園(Hyde Park)附近的四季酒店(Four Seasons)裏，孫正義表示：“每一盞路燈都將與互聯網相連，沒有車經過時可以省電。所有汽車都將實現互聯，無人駕駛汽車（將）安全得多。萬物都將互聯互通，那最大公約數是什麼？就是ARM。”

Mr Son had considered an Arm deal even before he bought US mobile carrier Sprint in 2012. That $20bn acquisition became a blemish on an otherwise impressive dealmaking record, after US regulators blocked a planned consolidation with rival carrier T-Mobile US. Some of his other “crazy ideas”, though, helped to produce the cash to fund the Arm takeover and offered clues that he was gearing up for a big move.

甚至在2012年收購美國移動運營商Sprint前，孫正義就考慮過收購ARM。那筆200億美元的收購不但未成爲一筆交易傳奇，反而成了軟銀的“污點”——此前，美國監管機構阻止了Sprint與對手T-Mobile計劃中的合併。但孫正義一些其他“瘋狂想法”幫他籌集到了收購ARM的現金，也讓人覺察到他正在醞釀一個大動作。

About three months ago, SoftBank took a previously undisclosed 1.45 per cent stake in Arm.

大概三個月前，軟銀收購了ARM 1.45%的股份（此前未公開）。

In early June, SoftBank said it would raise $10bn by selling a partial stake in Chinese ecommerce group Alibaba, the first time it had sold any of the investment that it acquired for just $20m in 2000 and is now worth about $60bn. Weeks later, SoftBank sold its majority stake in the Clash of Clans mobile game-maker Supercell to the Chinese internet group Tencent for $8.6bn.

6月初，軟銀表示，將通過出售中國電子商務集團阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的部分股份籌集100億美元，這是軟銀首次用其在2000年僅以2000萬美元購得、如今價值約600億美元的這筆投資來進行任何套現。幾周後，軟銀以86億美元的價格向中國互聯網集團騰訊(Tencent)出售了所持《部落衝突》(Clash of Clans)手遊開發商速波賽爾(Supercell)的多數股份。

Many investors assumed the cash would be used to pay down SoftBank’s enormous $112bn debt pile and some close followers have suggested that a decision to move on Arm sparked the abrupt resignation of Mr Son’s heir apparent, Nikesh Arora, a former Google executive, on June 22.

許多投資者當時以爲，這些現金會用於支付軟銀1120億美元的鉅額債務，孫正義的親信曾暗示，收購ARM的決定導致了孫正義的準接班人、谷歌前高管尼克什•阿羅拉(Nikesh Arora) 6月22日的突然辭職。

Mr Arora told the FT at the time that his decision to quit came after Mr Son declared he no longer intended to surrender running the company in 2017, as planned. Mr Son had shared his admiration of Arm with Mr Arora, but it remains unclear whether a decision to try to buy it added to the tension between the two men. With Mr Arora gone, Mr Son pressed ahead. But his plan received a setback when the UK’s decision to leave the EU became known in the early hours of June 24.

當時，阿羅拉對英國《金融時報》表示，他是在孫正義宣佈不再打算按計劃於2017年退出公司經營之後決定辭職的。孫正義曾向阿羅拉表示過自己對ARM的傾慕，但目前尚不清楚是不是試圖收購ARM的決定加劇了兩人間的緊張關係。阿羅拉辭職後，孫正義加快了收購進程。但6月24日凌晨公佈的英國退歐決定使他的計劃遇挫。

Paradoxically, the referendum outcome sent Arm shares surging, offsetting any potential currency gains. As sterling tanked against the US dollar and yen, investors flocked to the strongest UK companies — especially those with earnings principally in dollars.

奇怪的是，公投結果卻讓ARM股價飆升，抵消了匯率變化爲收購者帶來的所有潛在好處。由於英鎊兌美元和日元匯率出現暴跌，投資者紛紛涌向優質英國公司——尤其是那些利潤主要以美元計價的公司。

Either way, Brexit was not much of a factor in Mr Son’s thinking. “There was not even 0.1 per cent of Brexit on my mind when I made this decision,” he said in Japanese to reporters after the deal.

不管怎樣，英國退歐對孫正義的思考並沒產生太多影響。他在交易後用日語對記者說：“做這個決定時，英國退歐在我腦子裏連0.1%的分量都沒佔到。”

His next move was to invite Simon Segars, Arm’s Silicon Valley-based chief executive, to dinner at his mansion in the Atherton area of the Valley in late June.

他當時的下一步計劃是邀請ARM在硅谷的首席執行西蒙•西格斯(Simon Segars)共進晚餐，時間爲6月下旬，地點則定在孫正義位於硅谷阿瑟頓地區的宅第。

He concluded that Mr Segars shared his vision for the internet of things and should continue to run Arm in the event of a takeover.

他得出，西格斯對物聯網的設想與自己一樣，因此在收購後應該繼續讓他運營ARM。

Mr Segars was also present at the Marmaris meeting, along with SoftBank International’s chief financial officer, Alok Sama, when the first bid was unexpectedly relayed.

西格斯也參加了在馬爾馬里斯的會面，同樣在場的還有軟銀國際(SoftBank International)的首席財務官阿洛克•薩馬(Alok Sama)。就在那次會面中，第一次報價被意外提出。

Arm’s board, led by Mr Chambers, moved to get defence advisers at Goldman Sachs and Lazard in place. The first offer was rejected after a few days and a subsequent raised bid was also rebuffed.

錢伯斯領導的ARM董事會隨後請來高盛(Goldman Sachs)和瑞德(Lazard)做顧問。幾天後第一次報價被拒絕了，隨後提出的一次報價也被拒絕。

Sensing he was nearing victory, Mr Son decided to fly to London to seal the deal last Tuesday — just as it became clear that Mrs May would become the UK’s new leader. The seventh floor of Lazard’s Mayfair offices was cleared out, with a select few from opposing camps taking a room on either side of where Mr Son and Mr Chambers would bargain. The SoftBank chief made his third offer directly to Mr Chambers, who shot it down and replied with an even higher figure.

孫正義預感自己勝利在望，於是決定在上週二（局勢明確梅將成爲英國新任領導人的時候）飛到倫敦敲定這筆交易。瑞德位於梅費爾區辦公樓的七層被騰出來，分別代表孫正義和錢伯斯的談判雙方各精選出數人，佔據了居於兩方各自商議區域中間的一間房間。孫正義直接向錢伯斯提出了第三次報價，錢伯斯拒絕這一報價，回覆了一個更高的數字。

Mr Son thought the deal would slip away as he left the building and retreated to The Berkeley, the luxury hotel by Hyde Park, to let tensions cool.

孫正義覺得這筆交易可能會黃，他離開了這棟大樓，回到海德公園旁的豪華酒店伯克利(The Berkeley)，讓緊張的氣氛降溫。

“Arm miscalibrated,” says one adviser involved. Mr Son had stretched his price already and he had to “draw a line”.

一位參與談判的顧問表示：“ARM標價有誤。”孫正義的報價已高於預算，他不得不“劃出底線”。

A short while later, Mr Chambers invited Mr Son to The Lanesborough, another elite hotel nearby. There was a rapprochement and the two chairmen shook hands on a ￡17 cash offer for each Arm share and a 4p dividend, a 43 per cent premium to its latest closing price.

沒多久，錢伯斯邀請孫正義到附近另一家高級酒店萊恩斯伯勒(The Lanesborough)。雙方恢復友好，兩名董事長也達成一致：以每股17鎊的現金價格收購ARM，另付每股4便士的紅利。這一收購價比ARM上週五收盤價高43%。

Mr Son’s advisory team, comprising boutique firms The Raine Group and Robey Warshaw, along with Japan’s Mizuho Securities, began working with Arm’s advisers to draft the final terms. The remaining work days were also spent converting the requisite ￡24.3bn from Japanese yen and US dollars to sterling, in order to conform with the UK takeover code.

孫正義的顧問團隊（包括精品投行The Raine Group和Robey Warshaw，以及日本瑞惠證券(Mizuho Securities)）接下來開始與ARM的顧問合作起草最終條款。然後他們又花了幾天時間將收購所需的243億英鎊從日元和美元轉換成英鎊，以符合英國的收購守則。

Insiders feared the huge transaction would lead to a leak, alerting politicians to a foreign bidder at a time of heightened sensitivity. But by early Monday, as news of the deal broke, both victory and the element of surprise had been assured. After a two-week battle, a transaction that would stun the technology industry was announced.

內部人士曾擔心這筆龐大的交易會走漏消息，在一個高度敏感的時刻引起政界人士對一個外國買家的警覺。但到了週一早間交易消息傳出的時候，事實讓他們放下心來——交易成功達成，消息也沒有提前走漏。經歷了兩週的戰鬥後，這筆將震驚科技業的交易獲得了宣佈。

The first reaction of investors in Tokyo was to send SoftBank shares down 10 per cent. For Mr Son, it was never about the short term in making the biggest bet of his career.

東京投資者的第一反應就是讓軟銀股價跌了10%。不過，孫正義做出這筆其職業生涯的最大賭博，從來不是爲了博取短期利益。

“Most of the time, when I make a big move people say I am out of my mind,” he says. “But I don’t think about how I can add to what I have today . . . I think in terms of 20-year horizons.”

孫正義說：“大多數時候，當我作出一個大動作，人們說我瘋了。但我考慮的不是如何能錦上添花……我考慮的是20年後的事情。”