傑伊•鮑威爾上任後美聯儲首次加息

The Federal Reserve lifted short-term interest rates by a quarter-point and forecast that rates will rise higher than expected in the coming years as its new chairman Jay Powell responds to strengthening growth at home and abroad.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)將短期利率提高四分之一個百分點，並預測未來幾年隨着其新任主席傑伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)對國內外不斷增強的經濟增長作出迴應，利率將升至高於預期的水平。

The US central bank raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 1.5-1.75 per cent as it predicted inflation would accelerate in the coming months. The Fed’s median forecast for interest rates at the end of 2018 was left unchanged, but its projections pointed to an extra increase in 2019 with more tightening to come in 2020.

這家美國央行將聯邦基金利率的目標區間上調四分之一個百分點，至1.5%至1.75%，並預計未來幾個月通脹將加速上揚。美聯儲對2018年底的利率中值預測保持不變，但其預測顯示，2019年將有一次額外加息，而2020年將有更多收緊行動。

“The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months,” the Fed said in a statement following its latest two-day meeting. “The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labour market conditions will remain strong.”

“近幾個月經濟前景有所轉強，”美聯儲在最近一次兩天會議後發表聲明稱。“委員會預計，隨着貨幣政策立場進一步逐漸調整，經濟活動將在中期內適度擴張，勞動力市場狀況將保持強勁。”

Shortly after he took over the Fed in February Mr Powell signalled the US had hit an important turning point, as previous drags, including fiscal policy, reversed direction and provided a lift to growth. Republican tax cuts and a deal on Capitol Hill to boost limits on spending are set to deliver a major short-term stimulus; the $1.5tn tax cuts should on their own add half a percentage point to growth this year and next, according to Fed governor Lael Brainard.

鮑威爾在2月份接任美聯儲主席不久之後發出信號表明，美國已到達一個重要轉折點，因爲之前的幾個拖累因素（包括財政政策）均已改變方向，對經濟增長起到提振作用。共和黨推動通過的減稅措施，以及國會達成的提高支出上限的協議，將帶來重大短期刺激；據美聯儲理事萊爾?佈雷納德(Lael Brainard)介紹，僅1.5萬億美元減稅一項就將給今年和明年分別帶來0.5個百分點的額外增長。

Wednesday’s increase in the Fed’s target rate was widely expected by the financial markets. While some traders expected the Fed to pencil in a total of four rate rises this year, the median forecast in Fed officials’ rate outlook remained unchanged at three.

美聯儲週三上調目標利率之舉是金融市場普遍意料之中的。儘管一些交易員曾預計美聯儲今年將加息四次，但美聯儲官員們的利率前景中值預測仍爲三次。

However, the median prediction is now for three increases in 2019, more than previously expected. The midpoint of the Fed’s target range will now reach 3.4 per cent by 2020, higher than the 3.1 per cent predicted previously. The Fed’s estimate of its target range over longer-run edged slightly higher to 2.9 per cent.

但是，對2019年的中值預測現在是三次加息，超過之前的預期。對2020年利率目標區間中點的預測現在達到3.4%，高於此前預測的3.1%。美聯儲對較長期利率目標區間中點的估測微幅升至2.9%。

In its statement the Fed said the economy had been expanding at a “moderate” rate and noted a slowdown in household and business investment. Early estimates of growth in the first quarter of 2018 point to a deceleration to 1.8 per cent from the 2.5 per cent annualised pace reported for the final quarter of 2017.

美聯儲在聲明中表示，美國經濟在以“溫和”速度擴張，並指出家庭和企業投資放緩。2018年第一季度的初步估測顯示，增長將出現減速，年化增速將從2017年最後一個季度的2.5%降至1.8%。

However economists expect the slowdown to be a fleeting one, due to buoyant business and consumer confidence and widespread growth overseas. The Fed’s forecasts for 2018 projected an annualised expansion of 2.7 per cent, compared with 2.5 per cent in its December outlook, and 2.4 per cent next year compared with 2.1 per cent previously.

不過，經濟學家們預計這一放緩將是短暫的，原因是企業和消費者信心較強，海外也普遍出現增長。美聯儲現在對2018年美國經濟增長的預測爲2.7%，高於去年12月所預測的2.5%；而對明年增長的預測爲2.4%，高於之前預測的2.1%。