FT社評:再創中國的經濟奇蹟

Whichever way one looks at it, April really was the cruelest month for China’s economy. Industrial production, investment and retail spending were all much weaker than expected. With trade data also showing a sharp deceleration, it is no surprise that China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, has pledged that his government will do more to revive growth.

無論人們怎麼看，4月都是中國經濟最慘的一個月。工業產值、投資和零售支出都遠遠弱於預期。鑑於貿易數據也出現急劇減速，難怪中國總理溫家寶承諾，他領導的政府將採取更多行動，力求恢復增長。

Optimists say there is no obvious reason to worry about China’s economy. According to the official statistics, in the first quarter of 2012 the economy expanded 8.1 per cent. While marking a slowdown compared with the end of 2011, such figures are the envy of almost every other country in the world.

樂觀人士稱，沒有明顯理由爲中國經濟憂心。官方數據顯示，2012年首季中國經濟同比增長8.1%。儘管這與2011年末季相比有所放緩，但這樣的數據仍足以讓世界上其他幾乎所有國家豔羨。

The problem is that analysts are finding it increasingly hard to take official growth figures seriously. China has a history of manipulating statistics for political reasons and, as the economy slows down, the temptation to conceal the truth could grow even bigger. This is of course self-defeating. Obfuscating data is never a good way to build confidence in an economy, whatever its growth rates.

問題在於，分析師們正發現，他們越來越難以認真對待官方的增長數據了。中國在出於政治原因操縱統計數據方面是有過往記錄的，而隨着經濟放緩，掩蓋真相的誘惑力可能變得更大。這種做法當然是弄巧成拙的。在數據上遮遮蓋蓋，從來就不是構建各方對某個經濟體信心的上策，無論其增長率是多少。

What Beijing should do instead is to find ways to reinvigorate its economy. To some extent, it is already doing so. Over the past fortnight it has reduced the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves. It also unveiled subsidies for the purchase of energy-saving white goods.

北京方面真正需要做的，是找到重振中國經濟的途徑。在一定程度上，它已經在這麼做了。過去兩週內，中國官方降低了銀行存款準備金率，還公佈了鼓勵購置節能型白色家電的補貼政策。

These measures are unlikely to have a huge impact. And while the government has said it will do more, there is no reason to believe Beijing will embark on a monetary stimulus comparable to the one unleashed in 2008. As China is still struggling to contain the long-term impact of that credit frenzy, this would be a wise decision.

這些措施不太可能產生巨大影響。而且儘管中國政府已表示將採取更多行動，但人們沒有理由相信，它將像2008年時那樣，出臺又一套鉅額貨幣刺激方案。由於中國仍在艱難遏制那一波信貸狂潮的長期影響，這將是一個明智的決定。

In order to stimulate growth that is sustainable, the government should encourage consumer spending – cutting taxes or increasing the size of its welfare safety net. This could also help China rebalance its economy. While the weight of investment on national income is slowly decreasing, it remains too high.

要刺激可持續的經濟增長，中國政府應當鼓勵消費者支出，具體手段包括減稅和擴大社保安全網。這還可能幫助中國實現經濟的再平衡。在中國的國民收入中，儘管投資所佔比重正在緩慢下降，但目前水平仍太高。

Another move would be to reform the banking sector so that credit flows to small and medium-sized enterprises. As we report in our analysis today, too many bank loans go to large, politically connected enterprises. Pilot projects such as the one conducted in Wenzhou should pave the way for larger-scale reform.

另一個舉措將是改革銀行業，使信貸流向中小企業。正如本報在今日的分析文章中所報道的，中國仍有太多銀行貸款流向那些有政治後臺的大企業。在溫州開展的那種試點項目，應當爲更大規模的改革鋪平道路。

This year’s slowdown could be a seed for future troubles or a platform for greater successes. It will be up to Mr Jiabao and his successor to decide which is the case.

中國經濟今年放緩，可能是未來麻煩的種子，也可能是更大成功的跳板。結果如何，要看溫家寶和他的繼任者的作爲。譯者:何黎