中國承認低估燃煤消耗量 減排行動新挑戰

BEIJING — China, the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases from coal, is burning far more annually than previously thought, according to new government data. The finding could vastly complicate the already difficult efforts to limit global warming.

北京——中國是全球燃煤溫室氣體排放量最多的國家之一，政府發佈的新數據顯示，中國目前的燃煤量遠超以前的估算。這讓本已十分艱難的抑制全球變暖行動變得更加複雜。

Even for a country of China’s size and opacity, the scale of the correction is immense. China has been consuming as much as 17 percent more coal each year than reported, according to the new government figures. By some initial estimates, that could translate to almost a billion more tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere annually in recent years, more than all of Germany emits from fossil fuels.

即使對於中國這樣一個龐大而不透明的國家，本次的數據修正幅度也是相當巨大的。政府的新數據顯示，中國每年消耗的煤炭比此前的報告高出17%。根據一些初步估計，這可能表示最近數年中，中國每年排放到大氣中的二氧化碳多出了逾10億噸，超過德國所有化石能源的排放量。

Officials from around the world will have to come to grips with the new figures when they gather in Paris this month to negotiate an international framework for curtaiLing greenhouse-gas pollution. The data also pose a challenge for scientists who are trying to reduce China’s smog, which often bathes whole regions in acrid, unhealthy haze.

世界各地的官員本月齊聚巴黎，商討削減溫室氣體排放的國際框架時，將不得不應對這些新的數字。而這也對一些試圖減少霧霾的科學家提出了挑戰，這種刺鼻、有損健康的霾經常籠罩着中國大片地區。

The Chinese government has promised to halt the growth of its emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse pollutant from coal and other fossil fuels, by 2030. The new data suggest that the task of meeting that deadline by reducing China’s dependence on coal will be more daunting and urgent than expected, said Yang Fuqiang, a former energy official in China who now advises the Natural Resources Defense Council.

二氧化碳是煤炭等化石能源排放的主要溫室氣體，中國政府承諾將在2030年以前遏制二氧化碳排放量的增長。自然資源保護協會(Natural Resources Defense Council)顧問、前中國能源官員楊富強說，新的數據表明，減少中國的煤炭依賴、在最後期限前達成目標的難度和緊迫性是超出預期的。

“This will have a big impact, because China has been burning so much more coal than we believed,” Mr. Yang said. “It turns out that it was an even bigger emitter than we imagined. This helps to explain why China’s air quality is so poor, and that will make it easier to get national leaders to take this seriously.”

“這將產生重大影響，因爲中國的燃煤量遠遠超過我們的料想，”楊富強說。“結果中國的排放量比我們的想象還要多。這就幫助解釋了中國的空氣質量爲何如此糟糕，容易促使國家領導人重視這一問題。”

The adjusted data, which appeared recently in an energy statistics yearbook published without fanfare by China’s statistical agency, show that coal consumption has been underestimated since 2000, and particularly in recent years. The revisions were based on a census of the economy in 2013 that exposed gaps in data collection, especially from small companies and factories.

這些經過調整的數據出現在最近出版的能源統計年鑑中，沒有了中國統計部門的美化後，數據顯示2000年以來的煤炭消耗量被低估，特別是最近幾年的消耗量。此次修正是根據2013年的經濟普查做出的，普查曝露了數據收集上的差異，特別是小公司和工廠的數據。

Illustrating the scale of the revision, the new figures add about 600 million tons to China’s coal consumption in 2012 — an amount equivalent to more than 70 percent of the total coal used annually by the United States.

新數據顯示了校正規模，將中國2012年的煤炭消耗量增加了大約6億噸——相當於美國每年煤炭消耗總量的逾70%。

“It’s been a confusing situation for a long time,” said Ayaka Jones, a China analyst at the United States Energy Information Administration in Washington. She said the new data vindicated her earlier analysis of China’s preliminary statistics, which flagged significantly increased numbers for coal use and overall energy consumption.

“這種令人費解的情況長期存在，”美國能源情報署(United States Energy Information Administration)的中國分析師錢文華說。她表示，新數據證明了她之前對中國初步統計數據的分析是正確的，表明煤炭使用量及能源消耗總量顯著增加。

The new data indicated that much of the change came from heavy industry — including plants that produce coal chemicals and cement, as well as those using coking coal, which goes to make steel, Ms. Jones said. The correction for coal use in electric power generation was much smaller.

錢文華表示，新數據說明，大部分變化源自重工業，包括生產煤化學制品和水泥的工廠，以及利用焦煤鍊鋼的工廠。發電燃煤量的校正範圍要小得多。

Officials accepted the need to correct worsening distortions in the old data but have not commented publicly on the changes, according to Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University in eastern China. Mr. Lin said in a telephone interview that this was partly because the new figures made it more complicated to set and assess the country’s clean-energy goals.

據廈門大學能源經濟研究中心主任林伯強透露，官員們承認需要調整越來越失真的舊數據，但沒有公開就數據變化發表評論。林伯強接受電話採訪時表示，這部分是因爲新數據使得中國清潔能源目標的設定和評估變得更加複雜。

“It’s created a lot of consternation,” he said. “Our basic data will have to be adjusted, and the international agencies will also have to adjust their databases. This is troublesome because many forecasts and commitments were based on the previous data.”

“這引發了很多恐慌，”他說。“我們的基本數據將需要調整，國際機構也需要調整他們的數據庫。這有點麻煩，因爲很多預測和承諾是在之前的數據基礎上做出的。”