中國將取消玉米臨時收儲政策 China pledges to end corn stockpiling

China has pledged to eliminate a costly corn stockpiling policy that has hit world markets and left it with more than a year’s worth of stock in its silos.

中國已承諾取消代價高昂的玉米臨時收儲政策，這項政策對全球市場造成了衝擊。

A policy of buying corn at government-set minimum prices that were up to 50 per cent above market prices has turned into an expensive dilemma for Beijing. Policymakers feared unloading the stocks would depress prices and discourage farmers from planting, thus endangering national food security.

對中國政府來說，以政府制定的高於市場價多達50%的最低價收購玉米的政策，已導致一種代價昂貴的兩難困境。中國政策制定者擔心去庫存會壓低糧價、打擊農民種地的積極性，進而危及國家糧食安全。

The State Administration of Grain said in a statement on Tuesday that it would replace the stockpiling system with subsidies to farmers when prices dipped, starting with the upcoming harvest in the autumn. It would also encourage large state-owned companies to buy from farmers at market prices.

週二，中國國家糧食局(State Administration of Grain)在一份聲明中表示，從今年秋天的收穫季開始，將用糧價下跌時對農民實施補貼來取代臨時收儲政策。此外，它還會鼓勵大型國有企業以市場價從農民手中買糧。

“It’s just an initial step. More needs to be done,” said Ma Wenfeng of Beijing Orient Agriculture Consultancy, a critic of the stockpiling policy. According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, corn stocks in China at the end of the 2015/16 crop year are expected to be 113m tonnes, more than half of global inventories.

臨時收儲政策的批評者、北京東方艾格農業諮詢公司(Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant)分析師馬文峯表示：“這隻邁出了第一步，還有更多要做的。”美國農業部(Department of Agriculture)的預測顯示，2015-16作物年度末，中國玉米庫存會達到1.13億噸，超過全球庫存的一半。

A similar policy to address a gross surplus in cotton stockpiles has been under way for two years, but has failed to significantly reduce the size of China’s reserves, which account for an estimated 60 per cent of world supplies. Reserves have stayed stubbornly high in large part because prices are set too high at state auctions, so the stored cotton — most of which is of inferior quality to the latest harvest — fails to sell.

一項爲化解棉花庫存嚴重過剩而出臺的類似政策已實施了兩年，但該政策未能大幅降低中國棉花儲備的規模——中國的棉花儲備估計相當於全球供應量的60%。棉花儲備居高不下，很大程度上是由於政府拍賣過程中定價過高、導致庫存棉花賣不出去——這些庫存棉花的品質大多劣於最新收穫的棉花。

“Cotton stocks are high because they haven’t sold out the reserves and they still buy in bulk from the bingtuan,” Mr Ma said, referring to the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a paramilitary group of Han Chinese settlers along the border with Central Asia. “Corn doesn’t require the state to buy in bulk.”

馬文峯表示：“棉花庫存高企，是因爲儲備棉還沒有賣完，而且他們仍在從兵團大量買入。玉米則不需要政府大量買入。”他這句話裏提到的新疆生產建設兵團，是中國與中亞邊境地帶由漢族移民組成的準軍事組織。

China said it would lower state-set corn prices in September but that still left Chinese prices some way above world prices. The gap lifted 2015 imports to record highs and has encouraged smuggling and other misdeeds. Dalian corn prices for May are currently at Rmb1,700 a tonne — the equivalent of $6.61 a bushel — compared with CBOT May corn that is trading at $3.71 a bushel.

中國已表示，會在9月份下調政府設定的玉米價格，但下調後的價格仍比全球價格高一些。這一價差將2015年中國玉米進口量推升至創紀錄高點，並鼓勵了走私和其他不端行爲。目前，大連商品交易所5月份交割的玉米期貨的價格爲每噸1700元人民幣，相當於每蒲式耳6.61美元。相比之下，芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT) 5月份交割的玉米期貨的價格只爲每蒲式耳3.71美元。

China’s corn imports for the 12 months to March 2015 were 5.5m tonnes, almost 70 per cent higher than the year before, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

美國農業部數據顯示，在截至2015年3月的12個月裏，中國玉米進口量達550萬噸，同比增長近70%。

Many questions remain. The ministry of finance budget released earlier this March did not include provisions for subsidies to farmers, despite expectations that it would. And grain industry insiders also expect the state will have to write off the value of stocks that have deteriorated.

目前依然存在許多問題。在本月早些時候發佈的中國財政部預算中，並不包含爲補貼農民預留的款項，儘管人們預期它會預留。此外，糧食產業內部的人士還預計，政府將不得不沖銷已變質存貨的價值。

An end to the stockpiling policy does not necessarily mean that China or the world will be flooded with grains of competitive quality to those produced elsewhere. A Chinese television expose entitled “Rats in the Granary” revealed that state granaries in the north-east breadbasket were buying old and inferior grain at discounted prices.

臨時收儲政策的終結不一定意味着，品質相對於其他地區所產糧食更具競爭力的糧食將大量涌入中國或全球市場。中國一期名爲《糧倉“碩鼠”》(Rats in the Granary)的電視節目曾曝光稱，東北產糧區多個國有糧倉在以折扣價買入陳糧和劣質糧。

Anecdotal evidence suggests that is true for wheat, cotton and rice warehouses as well.

坊間證據顯示，這種現象在小麥、棉花和大米倉庫中同樣存在。

Last week the chief executive of Louis Dreyfus Company, one of the world’s biggest agricultural traders, said it could take China 18 months to run down its stockpiles, assuming they were in good condition.

上週，路易達孚(Louis Dreyfus)首席執行官貢薩洛•拉米雷斯•馬蒂亞雷納(Gonzalo Ramírez Martiarena)表示，假定庫存質量良好，中國可能需要18個月的時間來消化掉它們。路易達孚是全球最大的農產品交易商之一。

“It is very difficult to store grain for many, many years,” said Gonzalo Ramírez Martiarena. “If they are doing the rotation properly then maybe they have good quality stocks.”

貢薩洛•拉米雷斯•馬蒂亞雷納表示：“將糧食儲存許多許多年是非常困難的。如果儲糧輪換措施得當，他們也許會擁有質量不錯的庫存。”