日本購島危害:中日關係乃至全球經濟

The Japanese government's attempt to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands has the potential to derail global economic recovery, according to academics.

根據學者的說法，日本政府企圖將釣魚島“國有化”有可能拖累全球經濟復甦。

Relations between China and Japan soured after Japan moved to "purchase" part of the Diaoyu Islands in September. China claims the islands are part of its territory.

日本9月份實施“購買”釣魚島羣島的部分島嶼後中日關係惡化。中國聲稱這些島嶼是其領土的一部分。

"The world economy is quite unstable already and the world is turning its eye to east Asia for growth. But clearly, the dispute has had an adverse impact on global recovery," said Yang Mu, a senior researcher at the National University of Singapore.

“世界經濟已經相當不穩定，世界正把目光聚集在東亞的經濟增長上。但顯然，這次爭端對全球經濟復甦產生了不利的影響，” 新加坡國立大學高級研究員楊沐說。

"The global economy is already suffering from lower aggregate demand. This is particularly true in the U.S. and the eurozone. The global aggregate demand would go down if there is a further slowdown in the Chinese and Japanese economies," said Jesus P. Estanislao, former Philippines secretary of finance and chairman of the Institute of Corporate Directors.

全球經濟已經遭遇疲軟，特別是美國和歐元區。如果中日經濟進一步放緩，那麼全球總需求就會下降，菲律賓前財政部祕書長和公司董事會主席Jesus P. Estanislao說。

Other east Asian economies will also be affected, as they have large trade relationships with both China and Japan, Estanislao said.

其他東亞經濟體也將受到影響，因爲他們與中國和日本有着大量的貿易往來，Estanislao說。

Under the circumstances of the global economic downturn, Asian countries are eager to strengthen regional cooperation. Many countries hope to offset negative effects from European and American markets through tariff-free barriers and cross-state logistics and cooperation.

在全球經濟低迷的情況下，亞洲國家都渴望加強區域合作。很多國家都希望通過免除關稅障礙和跨國物流與合作來抵消來自歐洲和美國市場的負面影響。

Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, a government think tank, said the dispute has put regional supply chains at risk.

國家信息中心的研究員、政府智囊團成員張茉楠說，爭端已經把區域供應鏈置於風險之中。

Both China and Japan are important sources of semi-manufactured goods in Asia, Zhang said, adding that the ripple effect will spread and put pressure on the world economy.

中國和日本是亞洲半成品的重要來源，張茉楠補充說，漣漪效應會擴散，並對世界經濟造成壓力。

The World Bank has lowered its growth expectations for the region, possibly in response to the dispute. On Monday, it slashed its 2012 growth forecast for developing countries in east Asia and the Pacific to 7.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in 2011.

可能是對爭端的迴應，世界銀行已經降低了該地區的增長預期。週一亞太地區發展中國家2012年經濟增長預測已經消減爲7.2％，低於2011年的8.3％。

"In a fragile external environment, the economy in east Asia and that Pacific region is continuing to slow down," the bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Data Monitor.

“在脆弱的外部環境下，亞太地區經濟繼續放緩，”世界銀行在其最新的亞太地區數據監控中表示。

The new forecast is down from its May prediction of 7.6 percent growth for the region.

新的預測低於5月份預測的該地區有7.6％的增長。

"Should conditions in Europe deteriorate sharply, no developing region will be spared. With a major crisis, GDP growth could drop by more than 2 percent in 2013," the World Bank said.

世界銀行說：“如果歐洲情況急劇惡化，發展中國家也難以倖免。這次重大危機使得2013年的GDP增長率可能下降2％以上。”

The dispute has already taken an economic toll.

此次爭端已經對經濟造成了損失。