亞洲掀起軍備競賽潮 日本開始調整自己的國防姿態

Everyone knows about China’s arms build-up. Beijing’s defence budget has risen eightfold in 20 years. In that time it has become comfortably the world’s second-biggest spender on the military. In 2012, the country accounted for nearly 10 per cent of global expenditure, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which monitors defence spending. That was more than Russia and the UK combined, although only a quarter of what the supposedly cash-strapped US laid out on its armed forces, according to official figures.

人人都知道中國在擴充軍備。中國國防預算在20年間增加了7倍，輕鬆躍居全球軍費支出第二高的國家。觀察國防支出的斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)表示，2012年，中國佔據全球國防支出的近10%。從官方數字來看，儘管中國的軍費僅爲理論上資金緊張的美國的四分之一，但已經超過俄羅斯和英國兩國軍費的總和。

Less understood, however, is the effect China’s military build-up is having on Asia as a whole. In 2012, for the first year in modern times, Asian states spent more on defence than European ones. From India to South Korea and from Vietnam to Malaysia, governments in the region are ramping up defence spending. Even pacifist Japan, which for years has been cutting its defence outlays, has recently started to reverse the trend as it reorients its defence posture towards what it perceives as a growing Chinese threat.

但人們不甚瞭解的是，中國擴充軍備對整個亞洲有何影響。2012年，亞洲國家國防支出在現代歷史上首次超過歐洲國家。從印度到韓國，從越南到馬來西亞，亞洲各國政府均在增加國防支出。即便是奉行和平主義、多年來一直削減國防開支的日本，近期也開始扭轉這種趨勢——面對來自中國在其看來與日俱增的威脅，日本開始調整自己的國防姿態。

To some extent the build-up in Asia, at a time when the US and Europe are paring military expenditure, is a “natural” shift to a fast-growing region. As economies grow, they are bound to modernise their defence capabilities. Likewise, as China becomes more dependent on imports of raw materials, whether of iron ore from Brazil or oil from Sudan, it is less keen to outsource control of vital sea lanes to the US.

作爲一個增長迅速的地區，亞洲在歐美削減軍事支出時開始擴充軍備，在某種程度上是一種“自然而然”的變化。隨着經濟體增長，它們必然會更新國防裝備。類似地，因爲中國眼下更加依賴原材料進口——不論是巴西的鐵礦石、還是蘇丹的石油，中國將關鍵海上通道的控制權“外包”給美國的意願也降低了。

Yet the arms build-up in Asia has another, more worrying, dimension. This is what Desmond Ball, professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, calls “action-reaction dynamics”. To put it bluntly, there is an old-fashioned arms race going on. Robert Kaplan, an academic and author of Asia’s Cauldron, a new book about the South China Sea, calls it “one of the most under-reported stories in the elite media in decades”.

但亞洲擴充軍備有另一重更讓人擔憂的意味。澳大利亞國立大學(Australian National University)戰略學教授德斯蒙德•鮑爾(Desmond Ball)稱其爲“作用-反作用動力學”(action-reaction dynamics)。簡單說，亞洲正在上演舊式的軍備競賽。作家兼學者羅伯特•卡普蘭(Robert Kaplan)將這一現象稱爲“精英媒體幾十年來報道最不充分的題材之一”。卡普蘭剛剛出版了一本關於南中國海局勢的新著，名爲《亞洲鍋爐》(Asia’s Cauldron)。

There are many factors driving this arms race. Most important is the growing strength of China, which is leading countries such as India, Vietnam and the Philippines to think harder about defence. That is exacerbated by concern – Washington’s “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia notwithstanding – that the days of unchallenged Pax Americana are grinding to a close. Other rumbling diplomatic tensions, notably between India and Pakistan and between South and North Korea, are adding to the impetus.

這輪軍備競賽背後有諸多驅動因素。最重要的是中國實力的增長，這促使印度、越南和菲律賓等國更認真地思考國防事務。更糟的是，雖然美國政府採取了“重返”亞洲（或稱“再平衡”）戰略，但人們擔憂“美國治下的和平”(Pax Americana)不受挑戰的時代正在落幕。部分國家之間的緊張局勢——尤其是印度與巴基斯坦、朝鮮與韓國之間的對峙——也加劇了軍備競賽。

One of the most noticeable ramp-ups has happened in India, which last year became the biggest foreign buyer of US arms. In 2010, it overtook China as the largest arms importer, a reflection of Beijing’s successful efforts to indigenise supply of its defence needs. India’s purchases from the US are intended to close the technology gap. France’s Dassault is also waiting for New Delhi to finalise a long-dragged-out deal to buy Rafale fighter jets up to the value of $20bn. New Delhi, which in 2011 devoted a whopping $44bn to defence – only marginally less than it spent on education – has 45 warships and submarines under construction, among the world’s largest naval building programmes.

印度是擴充軍備最爲明顯的國家之一，它在去年成爲美國武器的頭號外國買家。2010年，印度超過中國成爲全球最大的武器進口國，反映出中國軍備供應本土化的努力成效不錯。印度向美國購買軍備，旨在縮小技術差距。法國達索公司(Dassault)也在等待印度政府最終敲定拖延已久的交易，根據交易印度將購買價值高達200億美元的陣風(Rafale)戰機。印度2011年國防預算達到驚人的440億美元，僅略微低於教育支出。該國目前在建的戰艦和潛水艇有45艘，這是世界上規模最大的海軍建設計劃之一。

India is by no means alone. Malaysia’s defence spending has more than doubled since 2000. Singapore, pursuing what is affectionately known as the “poison shrimp” strategy, is among the world’s top 10 arms importers. The smallest nation in southeast Asia, it has the biggest air force.

印度絕不是個例。馬來西亞國防支出2000年以來翻了一番多。奉行被人們親切稱爲“毒蝦”戰略的新加坡，是全球前十大武器進口國之一。作爲東南亞最小的國家，新加坡卻擁有該地區最強大的空軍。

Across Asia, purchases of submarines, the “new bling” in the words of Bernard Loo Fook Weng, a Singaporean defence expert, are multiplying. India, South Korea and Vietnam, the latter concerned about what it sees as Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea, plan to buy six apiece by the end of this decade. Australia, in the midst of its most important defence modernisation since the second world war, wants 20 more within the next two decades. Altogether, Asian nations are expected to buy 110 submarines in the next 15 years.

新加坡防務專家Bernard Loo Fook Weng將潛艇稱爲“新時髦品”。亞洲各國均在增加潛艇購買。印度、韓國和擔心中國“入侵”南中國海的越南，計劃在2020年之前各買6艘潛艇。澳大利亞正在進行二戰以來最重大的一場國防設備升級，它計劃在未來20年新增20艘潛艇。亞洲各國未來15年預計將總共購買110艘潛艇。

South Korea, too, has ramped up its defence capabilities and is soon expected to become a top 10 global arms exporter. Even Japan, which has had a self-imposed ban on weapons exports since the war, is about to relax restrictions. That is partly so that it can participate in multinational weapons developments programmes, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter developed by the US with eight other nations.

韓國也在增強國防實力，並有望在不久後躋身全球前十大武器出口國。就連二戰後一直禁止武器出口的日本，也準備放鬆限制。日本這樣做的部分原因在於，這樣一來它便能參與跨國武器開發計劃，例如美國與其他8個國家聯合開發的F-35聯合攻擊戰鬥機。

There are two obvious concerns about a burgeoning arms race that is only likely to gather pace in coming years. One is that, especially in poorer countries such as India, Vietnam and China, where there are still hundreds of millions of poor people, public funds are being lavished on prestige military purchases with no social value. The other concern is just the opposite. When it comes to arms, the only thing worse than spending on useless equipment is spending on weapons that actually prove useful.

亞洲迅速興起的軍備競賽在未來數年只有可能加速，這帶來了兩點明顯的擔憂。第一，公共資金被揮霍在購買不產生社會價值的威懾性軍備上，這一點對仍然有數億貧困人口的印度、越南和中國等不富裕國家而言尤其突出。另一點擔憂則正好相反。就軍備而言，唯一比花錢購買不會投入使用的裝備更糟糕的事情，就是事實證明，花錢買來的這些武器是有用的。

Almost every Asian nation is building up its capacity in the air and on the sea. The people of the region must hope that it is a complete waste of money.

幾乎所有的亞洲國家都在擴充空軍和海軍實力。亞洲地區的民衆只能寄希望於這純粹只是浪費錢。