俄羅斯纔是美國的頭號敵人

This weekend America announced that it was sending more troops to Iraq, Russia allegedly sent more troops into Ukraine and President Barack Obama set off for Beijing.

最近，美國宣佈將向伊拉克增派士兵，俄羅斯據稱已向烏克蘭派出更多軍隊，而美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)前往北京。

Ask policy makers in Washington which of these different parts of the world should be America’s top priority and the first response is usually a variant of – “We’ve got to be able to chew gum and walk at the same time.” Press on, and the replies get more interesting.

如果你問問華盛頓的政策制定者，在全球這些不同地區中，哪一個應該是美國的首要優先任務，最初的回答通常類似於“我們現在能夠一心多用了。”繼續問下去，答案就變得更有趣了。

Broadly speaking, the Washington consensus seems to be that, of the two immediate crises, the one in the Middle East is more urgent than the one in Ukraine. One US national security official, whose responsibilities include both Russia and the Middle East, looked incredulous when I asked him, last week, which was the more important: “The Middle East, by far,” he replied.

大體來講，華盛頓的共識似乎是：在當下這兩個危機中，中東危機要比烏克蘭危機更爲緊迫。當我問一位負責俄羅斯和中東事務的美國國家安全官員，哪一個更重要時，他似乎不信我會問這個問題，答道：“中東，這個緊迫多了。”

The argument for prioritising the Middle East is threefold. First, there is an actual war going on, with the US involved in daily bombing raids – landing “warheads on foreheads”, in the disconcertingly jaunty phrase used in the Pentagon. Second, if national security is defined as protecting civilian populations from harm, the Americans see a much more immediate threat from jihadist terrorism than from Russia. Third, the Americans believe an entire regional order is unravelling in the Middle East and that the reordering could take decades. By contrast, the order in Europe is only fraying at the edges.

將中東列爲優先任務的理由有3點。第一，中東確實在爆發真刀真槍的戰爭，美國每天都會參與轟炸任務，用五角大樓那句洋洋得意、令人不安的話來說，“朝着額頭髮射彈頭”(warheads on foreheads)。第二，如果國家安全的定義是保護平民不受傷害，那麼美國人認爲來自聖戰組織的恐怖主義威脅遠比俄羅斯更爲緊迫。第三，美國人認爲中東的整個地區秩序正在瓦解，恢復秩序可能需要幾十年。相比之下，歐洲的秩序只是在邊緣出現紊亂。

Some even worry that America’s preoccupation with Russia distracted its attention from Iraq and Syria, at a vital time. One official muses: “I do wonder whether historians will record that, in the spring of 2014, we were too focused on Ukraine, just as [Isis] was grabbing control of huge swaths of territory.”

一些人甚至擔心，美國對俄羅斯的關注在關鍵時刻分散了其對伊拉克和敘利亞的注意力。一位官員若有所思地說道：“我真的很想知道歷史學家將如何記錄這件事，2014年春，我們的注意力過多地放在了烏克蘭身上，而當時，‘伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國’(ISIS)正在搶奪大片地區的控制權。”

The phenomenon of policy makers looking in the wrong direction is certainly not unknown in history. In the month before the outbreak of the first world war, 100 years ago, the British government spent far more time discussing the prospect of civil conflict in Ireland than the threat of war in Europe.

政策制定者的關注方向出現錯誤的現象肯定並非前所未有。在100年前第一次世界大戰爆發前的那一個月，英國政府討論愛爾蘭出現國內衝突可能性的時間，遠遠多於討論歐洲戰爭威脅的時間。

But for those who worry most about Vladimir Putin’s Russia, it is the Middle East that is the dangerous distraction. The “Russia first” crowd is stronger in Warsaw and Berlin than in Washington. It worries that the US has been drawn back into the “war on terror” and the conflicts of the Middle East, just as the dangers in Europe are mounting.

但對於那些最擔心弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)領導下的俄羅斯的人而言，是中東危險地分散了政策制定者的注意力。在華沙和柏林，呼籲將俄羅斯問題排在首位的人羣的聲勢要比在華盛頓更大。他們擔心，美國已退回到“反恐戰爭”和中東衝突中去，而此時歐洲的危險正在加劇。

According to this analysis, the US has still not recognised the radicalism of the challenge posed by Russia. The annexation of Crimea and incursions into eastern Ukraine are, it is feared, just the start. At some point, Russia is likely to threaten more of Ukraine, or even the Baltic states. The very fact that America has ruled out military action over Ukraine – which makes the crisis seem less urgent in Washington – has inadvertently raised the stakes. As one senior European diplomat puts it: “Putin knows that he can always escalate to places we won’t go.”

根據這種分析，美國仍沒有意識到，俄羅斯構成的挑戰具有極端性。人們擔心吞併克里米亞和入侵烏克蘭東部只是開始。未來某一刻，俄羅斯可能會威脅烏克蘭更多地區，甚至波羅的海國家。美國已排除了就烏克蘭問題採取軍事行動的可能性，這讓這場危機在美國顯得不那麼緊迫，然而正是這一事實不經意間加大了風險。正如歐洲一位高級外交官所言：“普京知道他永遠可以將事態升級到我們不願意觸碰的級別。”

The darkest scenarios, being discussed behind closed doors, include Russian escalation up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. If that were to happen it would, of course, be the biggest international security crisis in decades – far more significant and dangerous than another round in the 25 years of fighting in Iraq.

人們私下裏討論的最糟糕的情形，包括俄羅斯將事態升級到涉及使用戰術核武器的地步。如果這變成事實，這肯定將是幾十年來最爲嚴重的國際安全危機，其重要性和危險性將遠遠超過另一輪持續25年的伊拉克戰爭。

Most experts still dismiss the nuclear scenarios as far-fetched. It is more common to worry that Mr Putin may launch an all-out conventional war in Ukraine – or encourage uprisings by Russian-speakers in the Baltic states, which are members of Nato. If Russia then intervened in the Baltic states and Nato did not respond, the Kremlin would have achieved the huge prize of demonstrating that the western military alliance is a paper tiger.

多數專家仍認爲這種核戰爭假設很牽強。更普遍的擔憂是，普京可能會在烏克蘭發動全面常規戰爭，或者鼓動波羅的海國家說俄語的人羣揭竿而起，這些國家是北約(Nato)成員國。如果俄羅斯接下來在波羅的海國家實施干預，而北約沒有做出迴應，那麼俄羅斯就取得了一項重大勝利——展示了西方軍事聯盟就是一隻紙老虎。

Some hope that the growing pressure on the Russian economy and the rouble might dissuade the Kremlin from escalation. But an economic crisis could also make Russian behaviour more unpredictable and reckless.

一些人期待，對俄羅斯經濟以及盧布施加更大壓力，可能會說服俄羅斯不去擴大沖突。但一場經濟危機還可能會讓俄羅斯的行爲更不可預測和不計後果。

Amid all this angst, President Obama has set off for a summit in China. For believers in America’s “pivot to Asia” it remains true that – over the longer term – the biggest challenge to US power is still a rising China, rather than a declining Russia or a disintegrating Middle East. They worry that the more the US gets sucked into the crises, the easier it will be for China to achieve primacy in East Asia – the region that is increasingly the core of the global economy.

在所有這些擔憂之中，奧巴馬總統動身前往中國參加一次峯會。對於那些相信美國“重返亞洲”的人們而言，事實仍然是，較長期來說，美國實力的最大挑戰者仍然是一個正在崛起的中國，而非實力日益下滑的俄羅斯或正在分崩離析的中東。他們擔心，美國越捲入到危機之中，中國就越容易在東亞獲得首要地位，而東亞正日益成爲全球經濟的核心。

The Obama administration is determined that this will not happen, and is shifting US military resources so that in future, 60 per cent of the American navy will be based in the Pacific.

奧巴馬政府決心不讓這種結果出現，因此正在轉移美國軍事資源，這樣將來美國60%的海軍力量將部署在太平洋地區。

It will be up to historians to decide whether the Obama administration got its strategic priorities right, or whether it charged off in the wrong direction at a crucial moment.

奧巴馬政府的戰略優先任務是否正確，或者美國是否在關鍵時刻搞錯了方向，這將由歷史學家決定。

My own instinct is that Russia is now the most important challenge. The rise of China is hugely significant but, for the moment, it feels like a long-term process – without any immediate risk of conflict with the US.

我自己的想法是，俄羅斯現在是最爲重要的挑戰。中國的崛起影響非常重大，但目前，這像是一個長期過程，眼下沒有任何與美國產生衝突的風險。

Failing states in the Middle East and the risk of terrorism are dangers that, sadly, now feel almost normal.

遺憾的是，中東那些正在衰落的國家以及恐怖主義風險現在變成了近乎常規的危險。

But an angry, nuclear-armed Russia, intent on challenging US power, poses risks that we are only beginning to understand. Peace in Europe may depend on Washington striking exactly the right balance between deterrence and diplomacy.

然而，一個憤怒、核武裝、有意挑戰美國實力的俄羅斯所構成的風險，我們纔剛剛開始意識到。歐洲的和平可能依賴於美國在威懾與外交斡旋之間達成合理的平衡。