俄羅斯無法逃脫歐洲國家的宿命

Seen in historical perspective, Russia’s latest turn to the east is not new. “From the shores of the Pacific and the heights of the Himalayas, Russia will dominate not only the affairs of Asia but those of Europe as well.” The Russian statesman who wrote those words was not Vladimir Putin, as some might suspect, but Count Sergey Witte, Alexander III’s finance minister, in a memo to his monarch in 1893. Witte, the architect of Russia’s industrial revolution, launched the trans-Siberian Railroad, aimed at opening up the resources of the eastern two-thirds of Russia and giving Moscow the means to establish its presence as a great power in the Pacific.

以歷史的眼光來看，俄羅斯最近“戰略重心向東方轉移”並不新鮮。“從太平洋之濱到喜馬拉雅山之巔，俄羅斯不僅將主導亞洲的事務，還將主導歐洲的事務。”這句話並非如一些人或許在懷疑的那樣、出自弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)之口，而是出自沙皇亞歷山大三世(Alexander III)的財政大臣謝爾蓋•維特伯爵(Count Sergey Witte)，1893年，他在給君主的奏摺上寫下了這句話。維特是俄羅斯工業化革命的設計師，曾推動修建西伯利亞大鐵路(Trans-Siberian Railway)，以求開發俄羅斯東部三分之二國土蘊含的資源，並且讓莫斯科能夠確立俄羅斯作爲太平洋大國的存在。

In fact, the Russians have been “turning toward Asia” ever since they first crossed the Urals in the late 16th century; and successive rulers – tsars and commissars alike – have kept going. It is no accident that the name of the port city of Vladivostok, home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet, means in Russian, “Rule the East”.

事實上，自從16世紀末第一次翻越烏拉爾山起，俄羅斯就一直在將戰略重心“向亞洲轉移”，歷代統治者——無論是沙皇還是蘇聯領導人——都在沿着這條道路前進。俄羅斯太平洋艦隊(Pacific Fleet)基地所在的港口城市符拉迪沃斯託克（即海參崴——譯者注），在俄語中的意思是“統治東方”，這並非巧合。

Yet for the Kremlin today, the turn to the east has a special urgency. The break-up of the Soviet Union was a blow to the Russian economy as a whole, but for East Siberia and the Russian Far East it was a disaster. Jobs disappeared as military industry, the mainstay of the region, shut down. In Vladivostok, the fleet rusted at anchor. Today the regions are depressed and increasingly depopulated. Along a coastline equal in length to the entire North American seaboard from Florida to Quebec, Russia’s Pacific Coast has fewer than 5m inhabitants. China, to the south, has 1.3bn. From Moscow’s perspective, it is no longer a question of “dominating the affairs of Asia”, but of keeping Russia intact.

然而，對今日的克里姆林宮而言，戰略重心向東方轉移具有特殊的緊迫性。當年蘇聯解體，對整個俄羅斯經濟造成了巨大沖擊，但對西伯利亞東部和俄羅斯遠東地區，這一事件堪稱一場災難。支撐這一地區經濟的軍工企業一家家關停，就業崗位隨之消失。在符拉迪沃斯託克，人們聽任停泊在港口的軍艦鏽爛。如今，這一地區經濟蕭條，人口越來越少。俄羅斯的太平洋海岸線在長度上等於從佛羅里達到魁北克的整個北美海岸，卻只有不到500萬居民。俄羅斯以南的中國有13億人口。從俄羅斯政府的角度來看，問題已不再是它能否“主導亞洲的事務”，而是能否保持俄羅斯本身的完整。

Since Mr Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012, his focus on Russia’s east has steadily intensified. The recently concluded gas agreements signed this year with China, after nearly 20 years of inconclusive negotiations, are the centrepiece of his eastern policy. When the first of these, the “Power of Siberia” pipeline to eastern China, reaches capacity it will ship a volume equal to nearly one-quarter of Russia’s 2013 gas exports to Europe. If and when the second pipeline – the “Altay” route to western China – is built, the total could eventually exceed 40 per cent.

自普京2012年重掌總統大權以來，他對俄羅斯東部的關注穩步增強。經過近20年毫無結果的談判，俄羅斯終於在今年與中國簽署了幾項天然氣協議，這是普京“東方政策”的最亮眼成果。第一條天然氣輸氣管道，即通往中國東部的“西伯利亞力量”管道（東線），最終的年輸氣量將接近俄羅斯2013年對歐洲天然氣出口的四分之一。如果第二條管道，即通往中國西部的阿勒泰管道（西線）建成，兩條管道的年度總輸氣量將超過俄羅斯2013年對歐洲總輸氣量的40%。

But heading east is not the same as getting there. There are considerable obstacles. Gasfields and pipelines are enormous, expensive structures, with lead times measured in decades. Historically, Russia’s entire gas industry has been concentrated in the western third of the country. Shifting its centre of gravity eastward requires developing a whole new industry from scratch, and it will not happen quickly. Even on the most ambitious timetable, the Power of Siberia line will not reach its full capacity of 38bn cubic metres a year until the mid-2030s.

然而，將戰略重心向東方轉移是一回事，能否轉移成功則是另一回事。俄羅斯面臨一些重大障礙。開發天然氣田和建設輸氣管道都是浩大的工程，需要巨大的投入和長達數十年的工期。傳統上，俄羅斯整個天然氣工業的重心都在西部三分之一國土上。將重心東移，需要從零開始、在東部創建一套全新的工業體系，這不可能一蹴而就。即便按照最雄心勃勃的估算，“西伯利亞力量”管線最早也要到本世紀30年代中期才能達到每年380億立方米的設計輸氣能力。

Hence there is a powerful logic to the second Russian-Chinese gas agreement, signed two weeks ago, adding the Altay route, which threads the narrow gap between Mongolia and Kazakhstan, and links up with the western end of China’s west-east pipeline.

因此，第二份俄中天然氣協議順理成章地誕生了。這份協議於11月初簽署，擬在西面再建一條阿勒泰管道，這條管道將沿着俄羅斯夾在蒙古和哈薩克斯坦之間的那塊狹長國土通往中國，接入中國西氣東輸管道的西頭。

This route has definite advantages from the Russian point of view: it draws from the country’s nearly limitless reserves in west Siberia; it branches off from an existing pipeline system; it enables the Russians to swing between the European and Chinese markets. It also helps offset the possibility of a more constricted market for gas in Europe.

從俄羅斯的角度來看，西線當然更有優勢：它利用的是西伯利亞西部幾乎用之不竭的天然氣資源，它是現有天然氣管道系統的一個分支，它讓俄羅斯能夠隨時在歐洲和中國市場之間取捨。它還有助於對衝歐洲天然氣市場受限的可能性。

All this will require a great deal of money – by some estimates up to $55bn for the eastern route alone. Now western sanctions have added one more obstacle. Although Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy group, is not directly subject to the US and European measures announced to date, the sanctions’ indirect impact on Russia’s ability to borrow has been unexpectedly severe. To carry out the Power of Siberia project, Gazprom will have to go to international markets for financing, and the prospects are uncertain.

這些工程需要大量資金，有人估計，僅東線需要的資金最多就可達550億美元。眼下西方對俄羅斯的制裁又增加了一個障礙。儘管美國和歐洲迄今宣佈的制裁措施並沒有直接針對俄羅斯政府控制的俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)，但制裁對俄羅斯借款能力的間接影響迄今嚴重得出人意料。要推進“西伯利亞力量”項目，俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司必須到國際市場上去融資，而這方面的前景是不確定的。

Witte had a similar problem. His trans-Siberian Railway took more than 15 years to build, cost scores of lives and ran more than twice over budget. To finance it, he had to float big foreign loans at high interest rates.

維特當年也曾面臨類似的問題。他推動建設的西伯利亞大鐵路花了15年多才建成，幾十人在鐵路建設過程中失去了生命，工程支出超出預算兩倍多。爲籌集建設鐵路資金，他不得不向海外發行高息債券。

Thus Russia’s 21st-century pivot to Asia represents, both metaphorically and physically, the latest stage in Russia’s long turn to the east. But, as in the past, it will unfold at a decadal rate. For all of Mr Putin’s desire to align Russia more explicitly with China against the US “hegemon”, Russia for the foreseeable future will remain anchored in the west and turned toward Europe – in its gas trade, much of its industry and most of its population. Russia will not escape its engagement with Europe.

因此，俄羅斯在21世紀的這次戰略重心向亞洲轉移，無論在比喻意義上還是在現實意義上，都是俄羅斯轉向東方的長期過程的最新階段。然而，如過去的情形一樣，其推進速度將以十年計算。儘管普京渴望讓俄羅斯更爲公然地與中國結盟、對抗美國“霸權”，但在可預見的未來，俄羅斯仍將被固定在西方、以歐洲爲重心，其天然氣貿易將以對歐洲出口爲主、主要工業佈局和絕大部分人口也在西部。俄羅斯無法逃脫其歐洲宿命。