美國大選 王朝貴族氣濃

In its early days, the United States was beset by rumours about plots to install a monarchy. Thankfully, in George Washington it had a president who understood the power of precedent. He removed his general’s uniform and gave up power after two terms. Thus was sealed the world’s most enduring republic. More than 200 years later, the US is bracing for the most dynastic contest in its history. The chances that either Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush will become its 45th president are high. The country’s elections are far more democratic than in Washington’s day. But there are grounds to worry that America is becoming less of a republic.

建國之初，美國盛傳有人密謀要建立一個君主制國家。值得慶幸的是，美國有懂得先例威力的喬治•華盛頓(George Washington)擔任首任總統。他脫去了總司令的軍服，並在兩屆任期結束後自願放棄了權力。就這樣，世界上生命力最持久的共和國誕生了。200多年後的今天，美國正迎來其史上最有“王朝政治”氣息的一場競選。美國第45任總統有極大可能將是希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和傑布•布什(Jeb Bush)之中的一個。如今美國的選舉比華盛頓時代民主得多。但今天我們卻有理由擔心，美國作爲共和國將變得不那麼純粹。

The odd thing about the prospect of a 2016 “game of thrones” is that Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush would be the two best-qualified candidates to win their party’s nominations. Mrs Clinton has much more experience than any potential rival — and there are not many of those. Having served as secretary of state and twice elected as a US senator, Mrs Clinton would be as fluent in world affairs as any incoming president in recent memory. Only George HW Bush, who had headed the Central Intelligence Agency and served as vice-president, would have been better versed. Many fear the upcoming Democratic primaries will be Mrs Clinton’s coronation. That may be so. But she would take it on merit.

關於2016年“權力的遊戲”的前景，反常的一點是，希拉里和傑布•布什將分別是各自所屬政黨內最有資格贏得提名的人選。希拉里比所有潛在對手都有經驗得多，而她的潛在對手並不多。曾擔任國務卿、並兩次當選美國參議員的希拉里，在國際事務上的嫺熟程度將不亞於近年來任何一位新上任的總統。唯一比她更有經驗的只有老布什(George HW Bush)，他在就任總統之前曾擔任中央情報局(CIA)局長和副總統。許多人擔心，即將進行的民主黨初選將成爲希拉里的加冕典禮。或許如此。但假如她在初選中勝出，那也是靠實力。

Jeb Bush faces a far more contentious battle than Mrs Clinton. His chances of winning are lower. But the Republicans almost always opt for the establishment candidate in the end — Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008, and, of course, Jeb’s brother, George W Bush in 2000. Mr Bush’s prospects might be weaker if there were other viable moderates in the field. But Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, is too tainted by a Sopranos reputation for irascibility. As a first term senator in his forties, Marco Rubio of Florida sounds too much like Barack Obama.

傑布•布什面臨的戰鬥將比希拉里激烈得多。他勝出的希望也小一些。但共和黨最終幾乎總是會選擇有背景的候選人，就像2012年的米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)和2008年的約翰•麥凱恩(John McCain)，更不用說2000年的小布什（George W Bush，傑布的哥哥）。如果有其他實力強勁的溫和派人士參選，那麼傑布•布什的勝算可能會低一些。但新澤西州長克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)是出了名的《黑道家族》(Sopranos)般暴脾氣。四十多歲、還在首屆任期內的佛羅里達州參議員馬可•魯比奧(Marco Rubio)說話腔調又太像巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)了。

Mr Bush has twice served as governor of a big state (Florida). Moreover, he is the Republican with the likeliest crossover appeal in a general election. Most of the rest are too conservative. Mr Bush, like Mrs Clinton, would be his party’s most effective nominee.

傑布•布什曾擔任兩屆大州（佛羅里達州）州長。此外，他是最有可能在大選中吸引多個選民羣體的共和黨競選人。其他共和黨競選人都太保守了。傑布•布什和希拉里一樣，如果獲得提名，都會成爲各自所屬政黨最有可能贏得大選的總統候選人。

Yet there is something profoundly disturbing about the prospect of another Clinton or Bush presidency. Should either win in 2016, then by the time he or she completed their second term, the US would have had a Bush or a Clinton in the White House for 36 of the previous 44 years. There are inbred autocracies with richer blood circulation than this. Nor would that necessarily be the end of the Bush-Clinton story. Chelsea Clinton has consistently refused to rule out running for elected office. In recent years she has taken an increasingly high-profile role at the family’s philanthropic organisation, the Clinton Foundation . Bright though she clearly is, it is hard to believe she was picked on merit. In an age driven by philanthrocapitalism, Chelsea has inherited a starring role.

然而，又一個克林頓或布什家族的人擔任美國總統，這種前景有令人極度不安之處。假如兩人中的一人在2016年贏得大選，那麼到他（或她）完成兩屆任期之時，就會出現這樣的情況：美國在過去44年裏，有36年由布什或克林頓家族的人擔任總統。這種情況再厲害一點，就是天然的獨裁者溫牀了。而那時屬於布什和克林頓家族的歷史章節還不一定會結束。切爾西•克林頓(Chelsea Clinton)一直拒絕承諾不競選公職。近年來她在克林頓家族的慈善基金會——克林頓基金會(Clinton Foundation)——扮演着越來越醒目的角色。儘管她無疑非常聰明，但我們很難相信她是因爲才能被選中擔任這個角色的。在一個慈善資本主義驅動的時代，切爾西繼承到了一個主角位置。

The Bush story is multi-generational. Jeb Bush’s son, George Prescott Bush, 38, was elected in 2014 as Texas land commissioner — a state wide position that is a springboard for higher office. He takes his middle name from his great-grandfather, who was a US senator. He takes his first name from his grandfather and uncle, who were both US presidents. A couple of weeks ago, George P’s grandmother, Barbara Bush, 89, shed her apparent reluctance to see yet another Bush in the White House: “Our problems are so profound that America needs a leader who can renew the promise of this great nation,” she wrote in a mass email. The former first lady concluded by saying she was launching a financing vehicle called the “Run Jeb Run fund”. It is hard to imagine this happening in another democracy.

布什家族的故事跨越數代。2014年，傑布•布什之子、現年38歲的喬治•普雷斯科特•布什(George Prescott Bush)當選德州土地專員，這是一個全州級別的職位，能夠爲更高級別職位充當跳板。他的中間名來自曾擔任美國參議員的曾祖父，名字來自爺爺和伯伯，兩人都曾擔任美國總統。喬治•普雷斯科特•布什的奶奶、現年89歲的芭芭拉•布什(Barbara Bush)一度似乎不希望再看到布什家的人執掌白宮，然而幾周前，這位前第一夫人改變了態度，她羣發郵件稱：“我們的問題是如此嚴重，美國需要一位能夠讓這個偉大民族再次變得充滿希望的領導人。”她在郵件末尾稱，打算啓動一個名爲“競選吧傑布基金”(Run Jeb Run fund)的融資工具。很難想象這種事情會在其他民主國家發生。

The other odd aspect of the Bush-Clinton game is that it is new to US presidential democracy (there have been plenty of family businesses at the state level). Among the founding fathers, only John Adams, the second president, had an offspring who ran for the top job — John Quincy Adams (he became the sixth president). Neither Washington, nor Thomas Jefferson, nor James Madison, were followed by namesakes. Among those who shared a name, Franklin Roosevelt (32nd president) was a distant cousin of Theodore (26th) whom he met only a few times. Their presidencies were more than 20 years apart. The US won the world’s admiration by often electing men from humble origins. The myth of having been raised in a log cabin was close to reality for Abraham Lincoln, America’s greatest president. He, too, was the last of his family line. Presidents such as Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and, of course, Barack Obama, rose up from modest backgrounds.

這場布什對克林頓家族的遊戲另一個反常的地方在於，美國的總統制民主制度以往從未遇到過這樣的事情（在州一級的職位上有過許多家族壟斷的情況）。在美國的開國元勳中，只有第二任總統約翰•亞當斯(John Adams)有後代競選總統一職（亞當斯之子約翰•昆西德•亞當斯(John Quincy Adams)後成爲美國第6任總統）。華盛頓、托馬斯•傑弗遜(Thomas Jefferson)、詹姆斯•麥迪遜(James Madison)都沒有同姓的後代當選過美國總統。在那些同姓的總統中，富蘭克林•羅斯福（Franklin Roosevelt，第32任總統）是西奧多•羅斯福（Theodore Roosevelt，第26任美國總統）的遠房表親，兩人只見過幾次面，並且兩人擔任總統的時間相隔了20餘年。美國往往選擇出身卑微者擔任總統，這一點令世界欽佩。亞伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)在一間小木屋裏長大的故事，跟真實情形相差不遠，他是美國最偉大的總統。他也是林肯家族最後一個擔任總統的人。懷特•艾森豪威爾(Dwight Eisenhower)、理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)、羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)，當然還有巴拉克•奧巴馬，都出身於普通人家。

So, indeed, did Bill Clinton. But here is the thing. At a time of rising inequality — and in an era where the rich tend to be hard working — those who do well in today’s US tend to be the offspring of those who do well on merit. They are given every educational advantage. US society is taking on the character of ahereditary meritocracy. It is far preferable to the indolent aristocracy so rightly abhorred in Washington’s day. But in one respect it is more insidious. Those who believe they have succeeded on merit alone are often free of self-doubt. This can blind them to the perceptions of others. If 2016 is indeed to be a Clinton-Bush contest, we should expect a low turnout.

誠然，比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)也出身於普通人家。然而現在問題來了：在一個不平等日益加劇的年代、也是一個富人往往努力工作的年代，今日美國那些志得意滿的人，往往是那些靠自身才能獲得成功的人的後代。他們在教育上優勢佔盡。美國社會開始呈現一種繼承式精英領導制的特點。比起華盛頓時代人們有充分理由厭惡的懶散的貴族統治，這種制度要好得多。但在某個方面，它的隱患更加嚴重。那些認爲自己的成功完全靠自身才能的人，往往不具備自我懷疑精神。這可能會讓他們聽不進他人的意見。如果2016年大選真的是一場克林頓對布什家族的競爭，可以料想投票率會很低。