統一東盟的幻象 The fiction of a unified harmonised Asean
If you think European nations are having a hard time holding it together — strained by disputes over immigration, austerity and debt — spare a thought for the 10 countries that form the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
如果你認爲受移民、緊縮和債務方面糾紛的困擾，歐洲國家的團結眼下面臨考驗，那麼你還是省點心思、想想東南亞國家聯盟(Asean)的10個成員國吧。
True, compared with Europe, they face few fatally divisive problems. Most of Southeast Asia is contending with the impact of a slowing China and braced for the turbulence that could accompany the steady normalisation of US monetary policy. Yet there are no big financial transfers within Asean, a loose federation akin to the EU of the 1950s. No country is threatening to leave, nor are there fundamental differences over the direction of policy.
的確，和歐洲相比，這些國家幾乎不面臨什麼致命問題。大多數東南亞國家正在應對中國放緩帶來的影響，併爲美國貨幣政策穩步正常化可能伴隨的動盪做準備。然而，作爲一個和上世紀50年代的歐盟類似的鬆散聯盟，東盟內部不存在大規模的財政轉移。沒有哪個成員國威脅要退出東盟，東盟內部在政策方向上也不存在根本性分歧。
Still, as Asean prepares for an important milestone this month — the creation of a theoretically single market — it is worth reflecting on the incredible diversity of the “new bloc on the block”.
儘管如此，隨着東盟將在本月迎來一個重大里程碑——建立一個理論上的單一市場——反思一下這個“地區經濟體中新的經濟共同體”不可思議的多樣性是值得的。
The 625m people of Asean live in states that range from the sprawling Indonesian archipelago of 250m souls to the tiny sultanate of Brunei, with 400,000. You have Singapore, with a gross domestic product per capita of $55,000, and Cambodia at just over $1,000. There are cacophonous, if imperfect, democracies (Indonesia, the Philippines); Communist dictatorships (Vietnam); and military juntas (Thailand). There are states with majority Muslim populations, such as Malaysia and Indonesia; ones that are mostly Buddhist, including Myanmar; and the predominantly Roman Catholic Philippines. Asean countries are even split over which side of the road to drive on. In five of them it is the left, and five the right — although in Vietnam they drive on both.
東盟的6.25億人口生活在不同的國家。有擁有2.5億人口、國土綿長的羣島國家印度尼西亞，也有僅有40萬人口、面積狹小的蘇丹國文萊。有人均國內生產總值(GDP)爲5.5萬美元的新加坡，也有人均GDP爲1000美元多一點的柬埔寨。有雖然不完善，但充滿了各種聲音的民主國家（印尼、菲律賓），有共產主義獨裁國家（越南），也有軍政府掌權的國家（泰國）。有穆斯林占人口大多數的國家，比如馬來西亞和印尼；有佛教徒佔大多數的國家，比如越南；也有以羅馬天主教徒爲主的菲律賓。就連道路通行方向，東盟國家都存在差異。有5個國家靠左行駛，另外5個靠右行駛——不過在越南，人們隨便開。
Given this diversity, it is no small miracle that Asean is forging ahead with integration by creating the Asean Economic Community, which formally takes effect on December 31. Theoretically, this creates a unified market in goods and services, and clears the path to free movement of people and harmonisation of regulations. It should be no surprise that much of this is fiction.
考慮到這樣的多樣性，東盟通過建立東盟經濟共同體(Asean Economic Community)推進一體化是一個不小的奇蹟。東盟經濟共同體將在12月31日正式生效。理論上，這建立了一個統一的產品和服務市場，爲人員自由流動和法規的協調掃清了道路。應該不令人意外的是，這在很大程度上是虛幻的。
Although 95 per cent of tariff lines are at zero, non-tariff barriers, from diverging regulatory standards to dysfunctional ports, make trade between nations frustratingly hard. Nor is there anything like free movement of labour, even in the skilled sector, which is supposedly on its way to full liberalisation. Multinationals operating in Asean complain that it is often hard to transfer staff from one country to another. Meanwhile, millions of unskilled migrants, from construction workers to fishermen, flit between countries in the shadows. In the penumbra of regulation, there is flagrant violation of human rights and even outright trafficking.
儘管95%的關稅細目稅率爲零，從監管標準差異到無法正常運轉的港口等種種非關稅壁壘，使東盟國家之間的貿易艱難得令人沮喪。按照設想，成員國將全面開放人員的自由流動，然而哪怕是在需要高技能的領域，也不存在勞動力的自由流動。在東盟地區經營的跨國公司抱怨，把員工從一個國家轉向另一個國家往往很困難。與此同時，從建築工人到漁民，數百萬不具備高技能的移民偷偷地來往於國家之間。在監管的灰色地帶，存在着公然侵犯人權，甚至公然販賣人口的行爲。
Asean has no ability to sanction countries that flout its rules. It is “all carrot and no stick”, Jayant Menon, an expert on trade integration at the Asian Development Bank, told a Financial Times conference on the subject recently. Asean has a skeleton secretariat, to put it kindly, based in Jakarta. It has a budget of $17m — not enough to get an EU commissioner out of bed in the morning. Asked who you call when you want to call Asean, Abdul Farid Alias, president of Maybank, a Malaysian bank that has a presence in every Asean country, responds curtly: “No one.”
東盟沒有能力制裁藐視其規則的國家。亞洲開發銀行(ADB)的貿易一體化專家賈揚蔠鱨(Jayant Menon)最近在“英國《金融時報》東盟經濟峯會”上表示，“都是胡蘿蔔，沒有大棒”。委婉地說，東盟有一個人員配備非常“基本”的祕書處，總部設在雅加達。這個祕書處的預算是1700萬美元——這個數字還不足以讓一位歐盟專員早上從牀上爬起來。當被問及如果想致電東盟應該給誰打電話的時候，在每個東盟成員國都設有分支機構的馬來西亞銀行馬來亞銀行(Maybank)行長阿卜杜勒法裏德阿利亞斯(Abdul Farid Alias)給出了簡短的回答：“沒人”。
In spite of such flaws, some companies are trying to treat Asean as a single market.
儘管存在這些缺陷，一些企業正試圖將東盟視爲一個單一市場對待。
General Motors and GlaxoSmithKline have made Singapore their regional hub, though that may be because of the ease of doing business in the city state rather the attractions of Asean. Others are seeking to build production centres in Indonesia, Thailand or the Philippines. Rising wages in China are making these and other countries, including Myanmar and Cambodia for textiles, and Vietnam for textiles and electronics, more attractive.
通用汽車(General Motors)和葛蘭素史克(GSK)都將亞洲總部設在了新加坡，儘管這可能是因爲在這個城市國家經營業務較爲便易，而不是因爲東盟有吸引力。其他公司試圖在印尼、泰國或者菲律賓建立生產中心。中國薪資水平的上漲使這幾個和其他幾個國家吸引力上升，包括緬甸和柬埔寨的紡織業，以及越南的紡織業和電子業。
Diageo, the drinks group, has placed hefty bets on Asean — lured, says Sam Fischer, its regional president, by consistent growth, young populations and the prospect of an expanding urban middle class. Yet it has sometimes been disappointed, such as when Indonesia suddenly clamped down on alcohol sales this year. Above all, says Mr Fischer, foreign investors want Asean to enforce clear and consistent rules.
酒品集團帝亞吉歐(Diageo)在東盟押上了鉅額賭注。據其區域總裁薩姆費希爾(Sam Fischer)的說法，東盟的持續增長、年輕的人口結構和城市中產階層可能不斷擴大吸引了帝亞吉歐。然而，該公司有時也會失望，比如印尼今年突然打擊售酒。薩姆費希爾表示，最重要的是，外國投資者希望東盟執行清晰和一致的法規。
That may be a problem. The “Asean way” favours consensus. Its lack of overarching ambition is a strength as well as a weakness. By taking a softly softly approach over the nearly five decades since it was founded, Asean has avoided pooled sovereignty and a single currency, both of which have become so contentious in Europe. It has held its project together with remarkably little friction. It has scored quiet successes, from steady tariff reduction to nudging Myanmar back into the fold of respectable nations.
這或許是個問題。“東盟模式”看重共識。這種模式缺乏統領全局的抱負，這既是一項優勢，也是一項弱勢。成立50年以來，東盟一直採用極爲柔和的策略，避免了主權共享以及單一貨幣，這二者在歐洲均已變得極富爭議。一直以來，東盟維持着一體化的推進，而居然幾乎沒有造成多少摩擦。從穩步減少關稅到促使緬甸重回受尊敬國家的行列，東盟取得了低調的成功。
Yet carrots and consensus can only take you so far. Those looking for a new but faster-growing Europe in the heart of Asia will be disappointed.
然而，胡蘿蔔和共識只能幫它到這裏了。那些期望看到亞洲腹地出現一個增長更快的“新歐洲”的人，肯定要失望了。
