印度不應錯過風雲時刻 This is the Indian moment Modi must not waste it

This should be India’s moment. The country has the highest growth rate among major economies. The International Monetary Fund describes it as a bright spot in an otherwise mostly dismal world economy. Narendra Modi, prime minister, basks in the resounding mandate he received at the polls two years ago from a population desperate for a sign of economic revival.

如今應該是印度的風雲時刻。它是各大經濟體中經濟增速最快的國家。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)形容它是愁雲慘淡的世界經濟中的一個亮點。印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)仍然享受着兩年前從渴望經濟振興的選民手中得到的明確授權。

Yet two years into Mr Modi’s tenure, his government continues to avoid many hard choices. India could come to rue a missed opportunity to implement a more ambitious reform agenda.

不過，莫迪上任已經兩年，他的政府繼續迴避着很多艱難抉擇。印度可能會後悔錯過了推行更具雄心的改革議程的良機。

Sceptics question whether the economy is really growing at the official pace of 7.5 per cent. Even government officials agree that newly revised data collection procedures present a picture at odds with other figures.

持懷疑態度的人對經濟是否真的在以7.5%的官方速度增長提出質疑。甚至政府官員也承認，新近修訂後的數據採集程序所呈現的景象與其他數據不符。

Still, India has good growth momentum. The fall in world oil prices has been a boon, reducing the budget and current account deficits. India is not likely to be hit hard by either a growth slowdown in China or a US interest rate increase. Domestic and external circumstances could not be more favourable.

話雖如此，印度擁有良好的增長勢頭。全球油價下跌是一大利好，有利於印度降低預算並減少經常賬戶赤字。印度不太可能受到中國經濟增速放緩以及美國加息的重創。印度國內和外部環境不可能比現在更有利了。

To be fair, his government has accomplished a lot. Macroeconomic stability is at hand. Mr Modi has supported the Reserve Bank of India’s struggle against inflation. He has largely maintained budget discipline and made progress on financial inclusion.

公平地說，莫迪政府已經實現了很多成就。宏觀經濟穩定近在咫尺。莫迪支持了印度央行對抗通脹。他基本上守住了預算紀律，在金融包容性上也取得了進展。

Access to the formal financial system gives the poor the feeling that they have a shot at sharing in the benefits of reforms, rather than merely bearing any costs of dislocation. The government has emphasised better public governance as well, although the fight against corruption is not being executed with any great vigour.

能夠利用正規的金融體系，讓窮人們感覺自己有望分享改革的成果，而不只是承擔經濟混亂的代價。印度政府還強調改善公共治理，儘管反腐運動的力度並不大。

However, unless Mr Modi builds quickly on these foundations, India’s moment of glory could be shortlived. For all the positive economic data, private investment remains tepid as businesses are not convinced that the economy is on the right path.

然而，除非莫迪迅速在這些基礎之上繼續推進，否則印度的輝煌時刻可能轉瞬即逝。儘管所有的經濟數據都令人樂觀，但是私人投資熱情仍然不高，企業並未確信印度經濟已進入正軌。

What India really needs are bold reforms to make growth more durable. The list of such reforms is long and includes reducing labour market -regulations, unshackling businesses from red tape, fixing the banks, developing capital markets and improving infrastructure.

印度真正需要的是大膽改革，使經濟增長更加持久。此類改革的清單很長，包括減少勞動力市場的規章制度、讓企業擺脫官僚主義的枷鎖、修補銀行系統、發展資本市場，以及改善基礎設施。

Given the size of his mandate, Mr Modi ought to lay out a vision of where he wants to take the country and use his rapport with voters to build broad support for a reform agenda. He has argued that he would rather accomplish things than set out a grand vision that he may not be able to deliver. But words as well as ideas have power and he needs to use his political capital to push for economic reforms, rather than using it to advance his party’s social agenda.

考慮到莫迪獲得的民意授權之大，他應該勾勒出他對印度未來發展的願景，利用他在選民中的人氣爲改革議程爭取廣泛支持。他曾爭辯道，他寧願腳踏實地地實現目標，也不願兜售他可能無法實現的宏偉藍圖。但是，話語和想法是具有力量的，他需要利用自己的政治資本去推動經濟改革，而不是推進其政黨的社會議程。

He could learn a lesson or two from Beijing. Although China is hardly a paragon in this area, its government has created effective narratives that rally public support for reform and break down opposition. The plan to reduce inequality and the attempt to make the renminbi an international currency are examples. The concrete measures encompassed by these plans, including reform of state enterprises, financial market development, capital market reforms and liberalisation of the services sector, would all be good for the economy, even if the grand objectives are not achieved.

他可以從北京方面借鑑一點經驗。儘管中國算不上是該領域的模範，但是中國政府掌握了有效的話語權，凝聚公衆對改革的支持並克服反對。減少不平等的計劃和推動人民幣國際化的嘗試就是例子。這些計劃所包含的具體措施包括國企改革、發展金融市場、資本市場改革以及推動服務業自由化，這一切都將有助於經濟發展——即使無法實現那些宏偉目標。

Rather than gloating about Indian growth, Mr Modi needs to make an aggressive push to reform the economy when the going is good. No one expects an overnight transformation. But a clear sense of where he wants to take the country and a willingness to expend political capital would go a long way in building momentum for the reforms that India desperately needs.

莫迪不應該沾沾自喜於印度的經濟增長，而是需要在形勢較好時銳意推動經濟改革。沒人指望一夜間發生翻天覆地的變化。但是，只要他明確印度的發展方向，並願意動用政治資本，將大大有利於爲印度迫切需要的經濟改革積攢勢頭。