埃爾多安應迴歸溫和治理模式

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged from the attempt to topple him with his grip on power apparently unassailable. A week on from the failed coup, Turkey’s president has assumed emergency powers that will allow him to rule by edict; while some 60,000 people have been detained or suspended in a continuing purge of the public sector. For the moment Mr Erdogan commands public support, both from the devotion of Justice and Development party (AKP) loyalists and the qualified backing of those who dislike him, but condemn the coup and fear the country’s descent into civil war.

土耳其總統雷傑普•塔伊普•埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)成功平息了一次試圖推翻他的政變，他對權力的控制看上去穩如泰山。這次失敗的政變發生一週後，埃爾多安啓動緊急狀態，他由此獲得的權力將使他能夠憑一己命令實行統治；與此同時，約60000人在對公共部門的持續清洗中被捕或停職。眼下埃爾多安獲得了公衆支持，既包括土耳其正義與發展黨(Justice and Development party)中忠誠分子的擁護，也包括那些不喜歡他、但譴責政變並擔心土耳其陷入內戰的人的有保留支持。

A state of emergency can be justified, given the brutality of the rebels, who launched air strikes on the capital and shot at civilians. Some of them may still be at large. The question now is whether Mr Erdogan will use this occasion to form a new national consensus and rebuild Turkey’s fractured institutions, or take the opportunity to redouble repression and realise his ambitions of fully fledged autocracy.

鑑於此次叛亂的殘暴——叛軍在首都發動了空襲並槍殺平民——進入緊急狀態是合理的。一些叛軍可能仍然逍遙法外。眼下的問題是，埃爾多安是會利用這一時機達成全新的國內共識，並重建土耳其千瘡百孔的制度，還是利用此次機會加大鎮壓力度並實現他全面獨裁的野心。

Ministers have made efforts to reassure the public, and international observers, that civil rights and the rule of law are not under threat. But the early signs are not promising.

土耳其的部長們正努力消除公衆和國際觀察者們的疑慮，稱民權和法治不受威脅。但是早期跡象並不令人樂觀。

Suspected plotters have been paraded before the cameras visibly battered. So many young soldiers have been rounded up that school gyms have been commandeered to house them. There is no sign yet that Turkey will be able to supply the hard evidence the US will require if it is to answer a request to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the cleric accused of inspiring the coup.

被懷疑參與陰謀的人列隊走過攝像機，明顯遭到過毆打。那麼多年輕士兵被集中到一起，連學校體育館都被徵來容納他們。若想讓美國迴應土耳其引渡費特胡拉•居倫(Fethullah Gulen)的要求，美國勢必會要求土耳其提供確鑿證據，然而目前尚沒有跡象表明土耳其能夠提供相關證據。居倫是一名教士，被指控煽動了此次政變。

Yet Mr Erdogan has made no secret of his desire to reinstate the death penalty, which would end any fiction of EU accession and would be in breach of Turkey’s own constitution if applied retrospectively. The president has already removed two constitutional court judges who might have stood in his way and can now bypass the court entirely, should he wish to do so.

不過，埃爾多安並未掩飾他對恢復死刑的渴望。一旦土耳其恢復死刑，將終結土耳其加入歐盟的幻想，同時如果死刑追溯既往的話，將違反土耳其本國憲法。這位土耳其總統已經剷除了兩名可能阻礙他的憲法法院法官，如今只要他想，他就可以完全繞開憲法法院。

What is clear is that the scale of the purge now under way will convulse Turkey’s already weakened institutions. So many judges have been fired that it is hard to see how the courts can handle the thousands who could face trial. All university deans have been forced to stand down. With almost a third of top-ranking officers under arrest, the army has lost the trust of Turkish society and will be badly weakened in the fight against Isis.

顯而易見的是，當前這種大規模清洗將撼動土耳其本已脆弱的制度。這麼多法官被解僱，我們很難想象法院如何應對成千上萬面臨審判的人。所有大學校長都被迫下臺。由於近三分之一的高級軍官遭到逮捕，軍隊已喪失了土耳其社會的信任，在與“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的戰鬥中將受到嚴重削弱。

Yet if the Turkish state is really riddled with Gulenist sympathisers, Mr Erdogan must take some responsibility. For the best part of a decade, he allied with the Gulen movement to hound his secularist opponents. Now he has spent almost three years trying to root them out — without success, if his allegations against the US-based Islamic cleric are to be taken seriously.

不過，如果土耳其政府真的充斥居倫的支持者，那麼埃爾多安必須承擔一定的責任。在過去十年的大部分時間裏，他與居倫運動結盟，共同打壓他的世俗主義對手。如今，他已花了近3年時間努力根除他們——但未取得成功，如果他對這位居於美國的伊斯蘭教士的指控值得認真對待的話。

Turkey’s economy is bound to suffer from the political instability. This heightens the risk of social fracture and institutional collapse. Mr Erdogan will worsen the situation if he invites confrontation — for example, by calling for more street demonstrations by his Islamist supporters, a dangerous move in a country whose immune system is already weakened by jihadism.

土耳其經濟註定會受到政局不穩的損害。這增加了社會分裂和制度崩潰的風險。如果埃爾多安慫恿對抗，比如號召他的伊斯蘭主義支持者舉行更多街頭遊行，他將令局勢更加惡化。在土耳其這個免疫系統已被聖戰主義削弱的國家裏，這是一種危險舉動。

It is to be hoped he will recognise the urgency of conciliation, in order to focus on rebuilding the state. The past week has shown the value of a free press, which proved crucial in the defeat of the coup. The crisis offers Mr Erdogan an opportunity to return to the moderate style that served him well in the early years of his premiership, when Turkey’s economy and society thrived in an environment of greater tolerance. His fears of a military coup have proved founded, but the path to autocracy is more perilous still.

我們只能期待，他將認識到和解對於集中精力重建國家的緊迫性。過去一週已顯示了言論自由的價值——它在挫敗政變的過程中發揮了關鍵作用。這場危機爲埃爾多安提供了一個迴歸溫和治理模式的機會。在他擔任總理初期，這種模式曾給他帶來好處，那時土耳其的經濟和社會在更寬容的環境裏蒸蒸日上。他對軍事政變的擔心被證明是合理的，但走向獨裁會更危險。