VR製造商發力爭奪親民市場(上)

When heads of state come to visit Facebook’s headquarters in Silicon Valley, Mark Zuckerberg likes to give them an Oculus Rift virtual-reality headset to try.

當國家元首訪問Facebook位於硅谷的總部時，馬克•扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)喜歡讓他們戴上Oculus Rift虛擬現實(VR)頭盔體驗一番。

The social network’s founder has played VR ping pong with world leaders, and maybe even a shooting game, depending on what kind of leader it is, he told attendees at the Oculus Connect conference in Silicon Valley this week.

這位Facebook創始人在本週於硅谷舉行的Oculus Connect會議上告訴與會者，他跟世界各地的領導人用Oculus頭盔打過虛擬乒乓球，跟有的領導人也許還要玩一盤射擊遊戲——取決於是哪種類型的領導人。

Addressing hundreds of VR software developers, Mr Zuckerberg recalled an incident when one prime minister was being yelled at by his wife because he refused to return to the real world and catch their flight home.

面向數百位VR軟件開發者發表演講時，扎克伯格回憶起一件事——曾經有一位總理（或首相）拒絕返回到真實世界中搭乘回國的班機，因此被他妻子吼了。

I was told there was a dinosaur! Where is the dinosaur? the unnamed leader exclaimed, according to Mr Zuckerberg.

扎克伯格說，這位領導人（具體是誰他沒有透露）當時喊道：有人告訴我有恐龍！恐龍在哪兒呢？

While it remains mainly an expensive hobby, virtual reality is no longer reserved for tech billionaires and the elite.

儘管VR很大程度上依然是一項昂貴的愛好，但它已不再是科技富豪和精英人士們的專享。

After decades in development, the run-up to Christmas will see a handful of VR headsets go on sale to the general public for the first time, ranging in price from under $100 to almost $1,000.

經過幾十年的發展之後，一系列面向大衆市場的VR頭盔將在聖誕節前夕首次銷售，價格從不到100美元到近1000美元不等。

Although still far behind smartphone revenues worth more than $400bn this year, Juniper Research estimates $5bn in VR hardware sales in 2016 will grow tenfold to more than $50bn by 2021.

儘管VR設備銷售額今年只有50億美元，仍遠低於智能手機逾4000億美元的收入，但據Juniper Research估計，它到2021年將會增長至現在的十倍、達到逾500億美元。

The projections indicate mass market acceptance, made possible by greater affordability and a maturing of VR development that makes it easier to use and more appealing to the consumer.

這些預測表明VR設備有望獲得大衆市場接受——價格更加親民和VR開發日益成熟（令VR設備更易上手，對消費者也更具吸引力）使之成爲可能。

We’ve just crossed a threshold in terms of what the technology can do, says Jesse Schell, a video game designer who has been working on VR since the early 1990s.

視頻遊戲設計者傑西•謝爾(Jesse Schell)表示：就VR技術的實現能力而言，我們剛剛跨過了一道門檻。謝爾自上世紀90年代初以來一直在鑽研VR技術。

He compares the state of the VR market with the debut of the Atari 800 and Apple II in the late 1970s, when personal computers first arrived in the home.

他將當前的VR市場狀況比作上世紀70年代末Atari 800和蘋果II(Apple II)的問世，當時個人計算機(PC)首次進入家庭。

Those things were so cool that everybody talked about them, then the prices came down and we had a massive revolution, he recalls.

他回憶道：那些產品非常酷，所有人都在談論它們，隨後價格下來了，我們迎來了一場大規模革命。

Christmas of 2016 is like Christmas 1978 all over again.

2016年聖誕節就像1978年聖誕節的重演。

When Facebook bought Oculus for $2bn in 2014, Mr Zuckerberg said, no one had ever shipped a modern consumer VR headset.

扎克伯格說，當Facebook在2014年以20億美元收購Oculus的時候，還從未有一副現代的面向消費者的VR頭盔發售過。

Now, there is a rush of devices.

如今，各種VR設備紛紛問世。

Following the Oculus Rift’s release in March, Google launched its Daydream View headset this week and Sony’s PlayStation VR goes on sale next Thursday, timed for the holiday season.

今年3月Oculus Rift發佈之後，本週谷歌(Google)發佈了Daydream View頭盔，索尼還將於下週四（節日季前夕）發售PlayStation VR。

Silicon Valley’s top executives are convinced that this technology is on the verge of hitting the mainstream.

硅谷的高管們確信，這種技術已達到進入主流的臨界點。

Our industry has made more progress in the last couple of years than any of us could have really hoped for, Mr Zuckerberg said.

扎克伯格表示：這個行業在過去兩年裏取得的進步已經超過了我們所有人的預期。

However, he also acknowledges that Oculus had a bit of a slow start earlier this year, when it hit production issues.

然而，他也承認，Oculus今年早些時候有些出師不利，當時這個產品的生產遇到了一些問題。

Those delays are now resolved, but they mean that the Oculus Rift may be outsold by both PlayStation VR and HTC’s Vive this year, according to IHS Markit, a research group.

那些問題如今已經得到解決，但研究集團IHS Markit表示，那些問題意味着，Oculus Rift今年的銷量可能會不如PlayStation VR和HTC的Vive。

Oculus [Rift] has had a bit of a shaky start, says Piers Harding-Rolls, director of games analysis at IHS Technology. We’re still talking hundreds of thousands [of units sold] as opposed to millions.

IHS Technology遊戲分析主管皮爾斯•哈丁-羅爾斯(Piers Harding-Rolls)表示：Oculus Rift起初進展不太順利，我們仍在談論數十萬臺（的銷量數字），而非數百萬臺。

IHS has a more modest forecast for consumer spending on VR headsets, expecting a rise from $1.6bn, or 4m units, in 2016 to $7.9bn, with 81m devices, in 2020.

IHS對VR頭盔消費支出的預測更爲謹慎，它預計到2020年，這種支出將從2016年的16億美元（400萬臺）升至79億美元（8100萬臺）。

Those figures include mobile VR headsets such as Samsung’s Gear VR and Google’s Daydream, which are much cheaper than the Rift or Vive because they use a smartphone for their display and computing power.

那些數據將三星(Samsung)的Gear VR和谷歌的Daydream那樣的移動虛擬頭盔包括在內，移動虛擬頭盔比Rift和Vive便宜得多，因爲它們用智能手機做顯示屏、並使用其運算能力。

Sony is pitching its $400 PlayStation VR, which works with more than 40m PlayStation 4 consoles, somewhere in between those low-cost mobile headsets and the $600 Rift, which also requires a PC costing several hundred dollars.

索尼推出了可在逾4000萬臺PlayStation 4上使用的PlayStation VR，400美元的價位介於那些低價的移動頭盔和600美元的Rift（還需要搭配一臺數百美元的PC才能使用）之間。

I think this is really a milestone for where VR could potentially start to hit the mainstream, Andrew House, chief executive of Sony Interactive Entertainment, told the Financial Times this week.

索尼互動娛樂(Sony Interactive Entertainment)的首席執行官安德魯•豪斯(Andrew House)本週向英國《金融時報》表示：我認爲這真的是VR可能邁入主流的道路上的一塊里程碑。

Mr House says that advance orders for PlayStation VR had been very, very positive . . . I think uptake of the product is going to be very good indeed.

豪斯表示，PlayStation VR的預訂情況非常不錯……我認爲這種產品的市場反響會非常好。

Yet he acknowledges that predicting demand for a brand new genre of product was very challenging.

然而，他承認，預測一個全新產品的需求非常具有挑戰性。